Market · 2 of 3 outcomes
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 06:34 UTC. Not financial advice.
Bitcoin price · Jan 1 · 1 event · $100K in play
Exactly one of this event's 3 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
9 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yurion00x47e7…ecbf | No | 3,247 | 64.4¢ | $2.6K | New34 settled bets |
| lihpare0x4fe2…87c5 | No | 2,408 | 74.6¢ | $1.93K | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 1,094 bets |
| woshiLimpeh0x2e4d…f703 | Yes | 6,888 | 29.8¢ | $1.38K | Losing−$3.44 per $100 · 445 bets |
| BIGDar0x16e9…db58 | Yes | 6,573 | 15.4¢ | $1.31K | — |
| 0x3764…c5eb | No | 1,495 | 69.9¢ | $1.2K | Proven+$7.49 per $100 · 1,189 bets |
| FatBoyRay19800x453c…37e4 | No | 1,200 | 75.8¢ | $960 | — |
| Musk50x1229…df38 | No | 1,056 | 86.3¢ | $844 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 492 bets |
| outsidertrading0x8f04…d82e | No | 1,000 | 60.0¢ | $800 | — |
| PACIFIST0xc752…62e1 | No | 1,000 | 75.9¢ | $800 | New68 settled bets |
| 0xd5e3…e379 | No | 1,000 | 89.7¢ | $800 | — |
| nirvanacrypto0x6c27…494b | Yes | 3,001 | 21.2¢ | $600 | — |
| e9678e0xb5ef…a4ae | No | 615 | 78.0¢ | $492 | — |
| ChasingPaper0x8dc7…116f | Yes | 2,448 | 22.7¢ | $490 | Proven+$10.97 per $100 · 442 bets |
| GenaCyberpunk0x816f…ace1 | No | 524 | 62.9¢ | $419 | New1 settled bet |
| AlfredTheShiller0xcd6b…68f5 | Yes | 2,000 | 17.9¢ | $400 | Proven+$5.96 per $100 · 1,413 bets |
| web3coming0x1eaf…e291 | Yes | 1,705 | 33.8¢ | $341 | — |
| Zarshka0xc1cf…9656 | No | 387 | 57.0¢ | $310 | Positive+$1.76 per $100 · 1,809 bets |
| 0xdb45…b5d6 | Yes | 1,500 | 43.0¢ | $300 | Proven+$21.94 per $100 · 864 bets |
| voyader0xb6fe…5d9e | Yes | 1,497 | 32.5¢ | $299 | New54 settled bets |
| 0xaa56…4967 | Yes | 1,419 | 32.3¢ | $284 | — |
| aliceshao0x7703…d2b4 | Yes | 1,400 | 38.3¢ | $280 | — |
| thinkpopo0xe9a6…409c | No | 300 | 59.7¢ | $240 | — |
| zhuo1an90xeff3…4e66 | No | 289 | 0.0¢ | $231 | New70 settled bets |
| 0xab0c…2ca3 | Yes | 1,048 | 23.0¢ | $210 | New19 settled bets |
| 99cc0x30fb…1f44 | Yes | 1,000 | 38.0¢ | $200 | — |
| S550x7124…70c1 | Yes | 850 | 33.6¢ | $170 | Proven+$6.56 per $100 · 500 bets |
| VirtualRem0x1876…1ad5 | No | 200 | 86.5¢ | $160 | Proven+$3.43 per $100 · 111 bets |
| guesswhatwhat0x96c2…8df5 | Yes | 690 | 31.2¢ | $138 | — |
| pm-maio-20260xbd41…a6de | Yes | 657 | 21.9¢ | $131 | New62 settled bets |
| 0xa235…1b86 | Yes | 624 | 26.3¢ | $125 | — |
| dsfd30x407d…52fd | Yes | 580 | 19.8¢ | $116 | — |
| eroplaka0x54e6…0933 | Yes | 580 | 37.7¢ | $116 | — |
| GamblingEnjoyer0x55d8…0cf5 | Yes | 578 | 15.9¢ | $116 | Losing−$1.93 per $100 · 152 bets |
| itsjustcheddar0x2a31…f2f0 | Yes | 542 | 46.9¢ | $108 | Break-even−$0.03 per $100 · 20,323 bets |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 133 | 65.6¢ | $107 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| interboys470xc67b…b024 | Yes | 530 | 17.2¢ | $106 | — |
| gambling2270x5665…32cd | No | 128 | 78.0¢ | $103 | — |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | Yes | 500 | 40.3¢ | $100 | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| 219180xaa64…cfcf | Yes | 500 | 20.0¢ | $100 | — |
| gatorr0x93ab…9723 | Yes | 497 | 18.0¢ | $99 | Proven+$4.44 per $100 · 937 bets |
| 0xf12d…cf2b | Yes | 488 | 41.0¢ | $98 | — |
| Zptml0xecb9…5a12 | Yes | 478 | 40.7¢ | $96 | New73 settled bets |
| ooops0xcb14…5358 | Yes | 450 | 39.0¢ | $90 | Break-even−$0.36 per $100 · 7,272 bets |
| avelgao0x4dae…18b4 | Yes | 446 | 33.3¢ | $89 | — |
| AlwaysTimed0x13c2…b7c8 | No | 100 | 86.5¢ | $80 | New37 settled bets |
| BTRSPORTS0xa32f…28bc | Yes | 388 | 14.6¢ | $78 | — |
| A1one0x6583…56e6 | Yes | 385 | 35.0¢ | $77 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 94 | 58.5¢ | $75 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,334 bets |
| killshot0x2bef…8108 | Yes | 365 | 26.3¢ | $73 | — |
| lyoo12100x1abe…f19f | No | 87 | 72.8¢ | $70 | Losing−$9.26 per $100 · 727 bets |
| DEGENKHAN0x21d0…ce91 | Yes | 347 | 29.5¢ | $69 | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 2,670 bets |
| ourdemocracy20xbdcb…e811 | No | 85 | 87.0¢ | $68 | Break-even+$0.15 per $100 · 569 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 83 | 81.2¢ | $66 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,934 bets |
| OoopsBankrupt0x3fbb…3f66 | No | 80 | 85.4¢ | $64 | Losing−$3.41 per $100 · 393 bets |
| 0xfb83…42d5 | Yes | 310 | 36.5¢ | $62 | — |
| PutsOnPeace0x635d…5025 | Yes | 300 | 29.8¢ | $60 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 2,042 bets |
| OleAron0x58c5…a43d | Yes | 300 | 27.0¢ | $60 | — |
| 0xefa9…f4fc | Yes | 290 | 42.0¢ | $58 | — |
| awgraewrfa0x699e…a7ec | Yes | 256 | 25.2¢ | $51 | — |
| cc4160x8242…cb6e | Yes | 250 | 11.0¢ | $50 | — |
| 0x4bab…5fa0 | Yes | 250 | 27.0¢ | $50 | — |
| Vlad210xd3d6…ebef | Yes | 250 | 40.0¢ | $50 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 183 bets |
| 0x06d8…9446 | Yes | 245 | 26.4¢ | $49 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 241 | 9.0¢ | $48 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| MyDaz0x693f…8fce | Yes | 239 | 41.0¢ | $48 | — |
| 0x5e9f…91db | Yes | 224 | 22.5¢ | $45 | Proven+$23.37 per $100 · 535 bets |
| Defizz0x949c…d8a1 | No | 54 | 66.0¢ | $43 | — |
| AMATEUR0x7286…559e | Yes | 209 | 17.5¢ | $42 | — |
| shudd0x6884…417c | Yes | 208 | 17.0¢ | $42 | — |
| Wojtek0x07d4…8991 | Yes | 200 | 9.3¢ | $40 | Proven+$6.05 per $100 · 2,630 bets |
| BIGBOSS.BRK0x0955…d3bd | Yes | 200 | 34.0¢ | $40 | — |
| mingmi10xaced…f7f9 | No | 50 | 68.0¢ | $40 | — |
| webb50080xd41b…83a4 | No | 49 | 82.3¢ | $39 | — |
| OrbitSugarFree0x890d…15ac | No | 47 | 85.5¢ | $38 | New74 settled bets |
| frd3120x9226…99e0 | Yes | 182 | 22.0¢ | $36 | New7 settled bets |
| MaciekBar0xfc4c…2c2c | Yes | 167 | 27.0¢ | $33 | — |
| jesus-rooster0x5c98…a58b | No | 35 | 22.0¢ | $28 | — |
| webb500080xa245…bf9e | No | 35 | 86.5¢ | $28 | — |
| 0x0f34…7684 | Yes | 124 | 18.5¢ | $25 | Losing−$5.75 per $100 · 2,290 bets |
| sinazero0xc2b0…8798 | No | 30 | 74.0¢ | $24 | — |
| huang4920xe57c…b0fb | No | 30 | 67.0¢ | $24 | — |
| jackloverr0xeeff…a41a | No | 30 | 74.1¢ | $24 | — |
| 0xe5c2…2b81 | No | 29 | 70.0¢ | $23 | — |
| titochamo0xc4e8…46f8 | No | 26 | 68.2¢ | $21 | — |
| sludgelife0x11b9…d361 | No | 24 | 88.9¢ | $19 | Break-even+$0.32 per $100 · 287 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 20 | 65.1¢ | $16 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| igfezj0xec26…fd65 | No | 20 | 59.0¢ | $16 | — |
| Accalia0x5d4e…ea01 | No | 12 | 85.5¢ | $9 | — |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | No | 10 | 67.0¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 6,249 bets |
| adsfasdf1130x0dba…2db9 | No | 10 | 67.0¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 7,608 bets |
| 0x1589…8194 | No | 10 | 86.5¢ | $8 | — |
| ddadsf0x9d17…c777 | No | 10 | 74.0¢ | $8 | — |
| PrimePenguin0x933c…a8c6 | No | 10 | 62.0¢ | $8 | — |
| Cassandra-Unchained0x4e48…a96d | No | 9 | 86.9¢ | $7 | — |
| JoE0x7740…cbcd | No | 9 | 58.0¢ | $7 | — |
| ktv.020xeab5…f570 | Yes | 35 | 24.3¢ | $7 | — |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | No | 8 | 85.0¢ | $6 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| Labotega0xaef1…5e2a | No | 7 | 61.0¢ | $6 | — |
| asdfll10x601f…bb82 | No | 7 | 68.4¢ | $5 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.