Market · 10 of 30 outcomes
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:13 UTC. Not financial advice.
Bitcoin price range · Mar 1–31 · 3 events · $14.3M in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JnStrtPrdctnMrkts0x1465…7072 | No | 529,664 | 67.5¢ | $495K | Break-even−$0.29 per $100 · 119 bets |
| notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6 | No | 65,221 | 88.6¢ | $61K | New0 settled bets |
| Tokor0xa19c…de6b | No | 51,858 | 87.0¢ | $48.5K | Proven+$13.75 per $100 · 1,658 bets |
| 0xDCCrane0x3d1c…e45c | No | 51,431 | 92.7¢ | $48.1K | New22 settled bets |
| stokcoldbrew0x0a76…f8f9 | No | 44,940 | 44.5¢ | $42K | New0 settled bets |
| Baderbet0x67ae…0f0a | No | 35,915 | 39.2¢ | $33.6K | New11 settled bets |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No | 33,697 | 91.6¢ | $31.5K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
| Marioy0x66ad…cc4e | No | 30,000 | 43.3¢ | $28K | Break-even−$0.03 per $100 · 460 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No | 27,625 | 74.2¢ | $25.8K | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 21,994 bets |
| justdance0xcc50…4c82 | No | 20,469 | 87.0¢ | $19.1K | Positive+$3.55 per $100 · 30,084+ bets · updating |
| XRPisSH8T0xd0f1…6712 | No | 20,321 | 39.7¢ | $19K | New57 settled bets |
| oegdatam0x5371…76eb | No | 17,295 | 87.8¢ | $16.2K | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 245 bets |
| LuckyChole0x8bbe…b9dc | No | 14,971 | 42.5¢ | $14K | Losing−$2.14 per $100 · 269 bets |
| boyau0xe734…4f0c | No | 13,444 | 93.0¢ | $12.6K | Proven+$8.79 per $100 · 547 bets |
| squirtl0xe140…78d4 | No | 10,608 | 47.1¢ | $9.92K | New44 settled bets |
| Mikelin0xef47…9aeb | No | 9,102 | 43.9¢ | $8.51K | New42 settled bets |
| DFV20x4f31…efa3 | No | 8,269 | 87.4¢ | $7.73K | Positive+$1.68 per $100 · 232 bets |
| W1nner0xf21a…b6e3 | No | 7,050 | 49.8¢ | $6.59K | Losing−$3.23 per $100 · 265 bets |
| D7422D98eA0d5b6Dd942a8eEd1d2a61945bFd00x861f…177d | Yes | 88,487 | 56.1¢ | $5.75K | New11 settled bets |
| yayaplaplern0x4d9c…b300 | No | 5,645 | 47.8¢ | $5.28K | New12 settled bets |
| 0xe617…f251 | No | 5,618 | 89.7¢ | $5.25K | Break-even−$0.85 per $100 · 1,612 bets |
| Hung-binance2470x22e1…80bf | No | 5,319 | 94.4¢ | $4.97K | Proven+$4.40 per $100 · 100 bets |
| 0x8e77…c4f3 | No | 5,000 | 65.0¢ | $4.67K | Break-even+$0.52 per $100 · 764 bets |
| 0x74b4…6bea | No | 5,000 | 93.2¢ | $4.67K | Proven+$2.37 per $100 · 411 bets |
| Newbietrading0x7b37…222b | No | 4,790 | 63.4¢ | $4.48K | New23 settled bets |
| 0x0321…8cb5 | No | 4,169 | 93.1¢ | $3.9K | New24 settled bets |
| goodbob0xcb99…55d1 | No | 4,111 | 85.7¢ | $3.84K | New17 settled bets |
| justme0030xcb89…a2e8 | No | 4,044 | 73.1¢ | $3.78K | Losing−$1.29 per $100 · 343 bets |
| jingxingyhh0x1bbe…776d | No | 4,000 | 93.0¢ | $3.74K | Positive+$11.40 per $100 · 148 bets |
| vlad990xe450…f0a9 | No | 3,835 | 61.2¢ | $3.59K | New23 settled bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 3,825 | 91.2¢ | $3.58K | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| timebrotime0x606d…1aaf | No | 3,439 | 86.8¢ | $3.22K | Proven+$3.83 per $100 · 2,545 bets |
| 0xf12d…0272 | Yes | 47,981 | 8.3¢ | $3.12K | New0 settled bets |
| VibeyQuant0x1f85…a51b | No | 3,000 | 43.0¢ | $2.81K | Proven+$3.12 per $100 · 1,518 bets |
| 0x7d3e…346a | No | 3,000 | 39.0¢ | $2.81K | New34 settled bets |
| x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd40x6916…2fd4 | No | 2,881 | 93.2¢ | $2.69K | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 5,208 bets |
| beraguess0xea79…e4b5 | No | 2,755 | 86.1¢ | $2.58K | Losing−$3.35 per $100 · 202 bets |
| matttto0x36e9…7d41 | No | 2,720 | 93.0¢ | $2.54K | New34 settled bets |
| ComTruise0xeee9…7ecb | No | 2,669 | 93.2¢ | $2.5K | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 16,722 bets |
| datamint0xddf0…119b | No | 2,596 | 88.7¢ | $2.43K | New96 settled bets |
| KaZaMaKung0xe708…47d7 | No | 2,500 | 57.4¢ | $2.34K | New55 settled bets |
| phdcapital0x3b7e…23eb | No | 2,486 | 79.0¢ | $2.32K | Proven+$6.12 per $100 · 310 bets |
| gengis1110x8b14…d0b1 | Yes | 34,318 | 45.4¢ | $2.23K | New37 settled bets |
| Scoofy-Bubik0x709a…7e39 | No | 2,371 | 85.8¢ | $2.22K | New83 settled bets |
| scsa.260x0f01…079e | No | 2,244 | 52.3¢ | $2.1K | New15 settled bets |
| truthguy0x7683…8082 | Yes | 32,056 | 31.5¢ | $2.08K | New0 settled bets |
| Gdub0x0b64…49bd | No | 2,178 | 41.0¢ | $2.04K | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 1,466 bets |
| eNakeVets0x3f3b…1d77 | Yes | 31,000 | 35.5¢ | $2.01K | Losing−$2.00 per $100 · 1,563 bets |
| felbax0xa4bd…9bdb | No | 2,083 | 48.0¢ | $1.95K | New4 settled bets |
| most80x0b56…3f6b | No | 2,000 | 85.0¢ | $1.87K | New6 settled bets |
| aleksandmoney0x8f14…1e77 | No | 2,000 | 50.0¢ | $1.87K | Losing−$1.25 per $100 · 2,282 bets |
| Avamax0xc97b…47e5 | No | 2,000 | 94.0¢ | $1.87K | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 720 bets |
| greater-fools0x216b…d8a5 | Yes | 28,335 | 16.9¢ | $1.84K | New0 settled bets |
| anon21120x4ad5…03ef | Yes | 26,470 | 13.1¢ | $1.72K | New1 settled bet |
| Simoz230010xcb60…4c99 | Yes | 26,344 | 11.2¢ | $1.71K | New1 settled bet |
| sizuki0x466a…444a | Yes | 26,064 | 36.6¢ | $1.69K | New0 settled bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 1,791 | 41.0¢ | $1.67K | Losing−$8.60 per $100 · 29,951+ bets · updating |
| LlamaLoco00000x93fb…3e4a | Yes | 25,510 | 37.5¢ | $1.66K | Proven+$10.70 per $100 · 391 bets |
| mountmckinley0xc19f…9d86 | No | 1,710 | 88.4¢ | $1.6K | New21 settled bets |
| sssxx0x60bf…15aa | Yes | 24,410 | 47.0¢ | $1.59K | New27 settled bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 1,687 | 74.7¢ | $1.58K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,860 bets |
| 0xeacb…52a0 | Yes | 23,654 | 16.4¢ | $1.54K | New89 settled bets |
| Cyclewin0xbc0a…35cd | Yes | 23,000 | 7.4¢ | $1.5K | New0 settled bets |
| Erka-RoadTo1M0x22e6…409f | Yes | 22,941 | 33.6¢ | $1.49K | Break-even−$0.01 per $100 · 1,440 bets |
| 0x7db9…d477 | Yes | 20,732 | 39.2¢ | $1.35K | New0 settled bets |
| 0x2270…6732 | Yes | 20,178 | 42.9¢ | $1.31K | New4 settled bets |
| onepingonly0x950e…f8e5 | Yes | 20,000 | 26.0¢ | $1.3K | New11 settled bets |
| Nik20250x0eda…fff0 | Yes | 19,672 | 34.2¢ | $1.28K | New10 settled bets |
| 0x41b8…1c0d | Yes | 19,324 | 59.7¢ | $1.26K | New8 settled bets |
| AndreasSchm0x027e…c97f | Yes | 17,219 | 9.0¢ | $1.12K | Losing−$2.19 per $100 · 441 bets |
| 0x5921…9b66 | Yes | 17,017 | 14.0¢ | $1.11K | New4 settled bets |
| Anry-8490x2d5c…1768 | Yes | 16,000 | 16.5¢ | $1.04K | Losing−$3.84 per $100 · 512 bets |
| 0xde5e…3a94 | Yes | 15,132 | 45.8¢ | $984 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 158 bets |
| xfinity0x919e…4e9b | Yes | 12,806 | 33.5¢ | $832 | New21 settled bets |
| Lucaraison0xb1d5…523e | Yes | 11,819 | 24.4¢ | $768 | Losing−$12.29 per $100 · 110 bets |
| rmax0x02ed…7251 | Yes | 11,283 | 23.3¢ | $733 | New60 settled bets |
| JAMJAMJAM40xe8c4…395d | Yes | 11,000 | 26.6¢ | $715 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 7,027 bets |
| cxpjysokx0x6e65…2fb3 | Yes | 10,254 | 61.7¢ | $667 | New8 settled bets |
| VRVTeam0xe700…7005 | Yes | 10,000 | 13.0¢ | $650 | Positive+$20.63 per $100 · 101 bets |
| yuanhang0x35f2…71a3 | Yes | 9,998 | 32.0¢ | $650 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 500 bets |
| 2502502500xba08…fc86 | Yes | 9,000 | 14.9¢ | $585 | New7 settled bets |
| moonboi1010xddae…8ee2 | Yes | 8,419 | 9.3¢ | $547 | New62 settled bets |
| Omarxhelal0xf011…42c6 | Yes | 8,339 | 49.8¢ | $542 | New0 settled bets |
| Copezilla0x9f08…73a8 | Yes | 8,179 | 37.1¢ | $532 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| LC50010xacc9…fff2 | Yes | 8,035 | 56.0¢ | $522 | New1 settled bet |
| kastetem0xc427…6f4d | Yes | 8,027 | 6.4¢ | $522 | Proven+$6.95 per $100 · 474 bets |
| 0x2f64…9138 | Yes | 7,621 | 38.4¢ | $495 | Break-even−$0.18 per $100 · 639 bets |
| z1810x7c46…ddac | Yes | 7,591 | 36.4¢ | $493 | New8 settled bets |
| dzjzh0x8bd1…bd11 | Yes | 7,517 | 62.8¢ | $489 | New4 settled bets |
| shortcrypto140xe58c…942a | Yes | 7,298 | 41.5¢ | $474 | New2 settled bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 7,268 | 41.2¢ | $472 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| JolyScrab0x83fa…bc7c | Yes | 7,169 | 47.3¢ | $466 | New54 settled bets |
| srmiiie0xbca5…8727 | Yes | 6,777 | 7.0¢ | $441 | Losing−$55.78 per $100 · 173 bets |
| 0xac44…f676 | Yes | 6,667 | 15.9¢ | $433 | New11 settled bets |
| 0xhanxyz0x57c0…60c5 | Yes | 6,284 | 59.8¢ | $408 | New29 settled bets |
| atoutlemonde0xec34…d61e | Yes | 6,183 | 12.3¢ | $402 | Losing−$5.39 per $100 · 6,142 bets |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 6,148 | 31.5¢ | $400 | Losing−$5.17 per $100 · 30,004+ bets · updating |
| JRRRT0xcd11…4a0f | Yes | 6,049 | 10.9¢ | $393 | New1 settled bet |
| fedparodi0xf23d…b77a | Yes | 6,000 | 31.0¢ | $390 | New27 settled bets |
| RobertoRubio0x3c4c…dd95 | Yes | 6,000 | 64.0¢ | $390 | Break-even+$0.77 per $100 · 213 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.