Market · 11 of 30 outcomes
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:15 UTC. Not financial advice.
Bitcoin price range · Mar 1–31 · 3 events · $14.3M in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
5 proven traders are on Yes, 9 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6 | No | 1,108,598 | 81.9¢ | $1.07M | New0 settled bets |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No | 86,205 | 86.6¢ | $82.8K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
| howaboutsendit0x7dd3…4ae7 | No | 79,959 | 92.2¢ | $76.8K | New0 settled bets |
| LucasMeow0x7f3c…5613 | No | 50,000 | 91.1¢ | $48K | Proven+$2.25 per $100 · 208 bets |
| ETHhedge0x9a1f…c925 | No | 39,621 | 80.1¢ | $38.1K | New0 settled bets |
| Marioy0x66ad…cc4e | No | 29,171 | 58.8¢ | $28K | Break-even−$0.03 per $100 · 460 bets |
| wttg0xdf25…3b7f | No | 28,869 | 68.6¢ | $27.7K | New64 settled bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No | 27,102 | 51.4¢ | $26K | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 21,994 bets |
| oegdatam0x5371…76eb | No | 20,155 | 82.1¢ | $19.4K | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 245 bets |
| bitcoin-betting.com.0x83e2…dd5e | No | 18,427 | 78.9¢ | $17.7K | New56 settled bets |
| XRPisSH8T0xd0f1…6712 | No | 17,092 | 56.7¢ | $16.4K | New57 settled bets |
| LP-LosPepes0xbcb0…70e6 | No | 16,000 | 78.4¢ | $15.4K | New28 settled bets |
| W1nner0xf21a…b6e3 | No | 15,670 | 67.0¢ | $15.1K | Losing−$3.23 per $100 · 265 bets |
| x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd40x6916…2fd4 | No | 15,257 | 96.7¢ | $14.7K | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 5,208 bets |
| LuckyChole0x8bbe…b9dc | No | 14,621 | 59.8¢ | $14.1K | Losing−$2.14 per $100 · 269 bets |
| boyau0xe734…4f0c | Yes | 355,463 | 4.0¢ | $13.9K | Proven+$8.79 per $100 · 547 bets |
| aleksandmoney0x8f14…1e77 | No | 14,417 | 67.8¢ | $13.9K | Losing−$1.25 per $100 · 2,282 bets |
| bitterfish0x1cd2…7f85 | No | 12,581 | 80.7¢ | $12.1K | Proven+$9.32 per $100 · 595 bets |
| 0x6c10…df5c | No | 10,882 | 73.5¢ | $10.5K | Losing−$7.13 per $100 · 1,041 bets |
| afdafdafdafdafd0x410a…2643 | No | 10,303 | 94.7¢ | $9.9K | Losing−$2.15 per $100 · 311 bets |
| phdcapital0x3b7e…23eb | No | 10,139 | 72.7¢ | $9.74K | Proven+$6.12 per $100 · 310 bets |
| VibeyQuant0x1f85…a51b | No | 9,440 | 76.4¢ | $9.07K | Proven+$3.12 per $100 · 1,518 bets |
| baojuhua0x7bc7…3976 | No | 8,655 | 51.7¢ | $8.32K | Positive+$1.72 per $100 · 108 bets |
| Tomyum0x08e0…beb9 | No | 7,870 | 80.4¢ | $7.56K | New45 settled bets |
| timebrotime0x606d…1aaf | No | 7,327 | 75.4¢ | $7.04K | Proven+$3.83 per $100 · 2,545 bets |
| Mikelin0xef47…9aeb | No | 7,242 | 55.2¢ | $6.96K | New42 settled bets |
| TradeDeficitArchitect0x477f…19aa | No | 7,106 | 70.2¢ | $6.83K | Proven+$6.37 per $100 · 2,801 bets |
| Alacritous0xeecd…9faa | No | 6,804 | 70.8¢ | $6.54K | New21 settled bets |
| greater-fools0x216b…d8a5 | Yes | 156,202 | 10.1¢ | $6.09K | New0 settled bets |
| D7422D98eA0d5b6Dd942a8eEd1d2a61945bFd00x861f…177d | Yes | 151,756 | 42.0¢ | $5.92K | New11 settled bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 5,947 | 84.6¢ | $5.72K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,860 bets |
| 0x8e77…c4f3 | No | 5,000 | 79.0¢ | $4.8K | Break-even+$0.52 per $100 · 764 bets |
| Wrajitoru1850xdc6d…10fa | No | 5,000 | 60.2¢ | $4.8K | Proven+$9.12 per $100 · 1,128 bets |
| misotaru0x1b59…fda0 | No | 4,995 | 73.8¢ | $4.8K | New8 settled bets |
| scsa.260x0f01…079e | No | 4,964 | 66.0¢ | $4.77K | New15 settled bets |
| falsita0x3baf…3b7b | No | 4,655 | 50.0¢ | $4.47K | New9 settled bets |
| 0x74b4…6bea | No | 4,571 | 95.8¢ | $4.39K | Proven+$2.37 per $100 · 411 bets |
| juan10x7d48…c8e5 | No | 3,709 | 61.0¢ | $3.56K | New12 settled bets |
| Scoofy-Bubik0x709a…7e39 | No | 3,300 | 92.7¢ | $3.17K | New83 settled bets |
| striver0x3689…c12a | No | 3,278 | 64.0¢ | $3.15K | New7 settled bets |
| sayanghae0x2826…f448 | No | 3,228 | 63.6¢ | $3.1K | Proven+$2.53 per $100 · 130 bets |
| Trashbag0x42fa…1fc7 | No | 3,100 | 76.0¢ | $2.98K | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 138 bets |
| imakebigbets0x09e3…48ac | No | 2,960 | 64.3¢ | $2.84K | Break-even+$0.06 per $100 · 440 bets |
| 0x7d3e…346a | No | 2,927 | 53.5¢ | $2.81K | New34 settled bets |
| trerira0x18ab…bae4 | No | 2,800 | 83.1¢ | $2.69K | Positive+$1.77 per $100 · 179 bets |
| Lunarcorona0x96e8…bf9f | Yes | 67,548 | 10.6¢ | $2.63K | New22 settled bets |
| cryptorocket3330xa732…8818 | No | 2,600 | 81.8¢ | $2.5K | Break-even+$0.06 per $100 · 384 bets |
| LlamaLoco00000x93fb…3e4a | Yes | 62,177 | 26.7¢ | $2.42K | Proven+$10.70 per $100 · 391 bets |
| FXC0x2d88…d5e8 | No | 2,434 | 71.6¢ | $2.34K | Break-even−$0.29 per $100 · 1,534 bets |
| Avivback0x8366…0d45 | No | 2,404 | 83.9¢ | $2.31K | New53 settled bets |
| beraguess0xea79…e4b5 | No | 2,402 | 92.8¢ | $2.31K | Losing−$3.35 per $100 · 202 bets |
| AndreasSchm0x027e…c97f | Yes | 59,053 | 6.1¢ | $2.3K | Losing−$2.19 per $100 · 441 bets |
| 0xf12d…0272 | Yes | 57,898 | 5.1¢ | $2.26K | New0 settled bets |
| ponczyk0x535c…96ba | No | 2,100 | 96.7¢ | $2.02K | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 283 bets |
| 1337hax0x2683…b5bf | No | 2,002 | 57.3¢ | $1.92K | Losing−$3.08 per $100 · 299 bets |
| Michel de Nostredame0x19de…713e | No | 2,000 | 69.5¢ | $1.92K | New79 settled bets |
| 0x019e…af1d | No | 1,932 | 53.1¢ | $1.86K | Losing−$7.84 per $100 · 479 bets |
| 0x5bd8…fc9e | Yes | 38,750 | 7.3¢ | $1.51K | New2 settled bets |
| 0xda5b…8cce | Yes | 37,051 | 52.9¢ | $1.44K | New2 settled bets |
| Lucaraison0xb1d5…523e | Yes | 29,531 | 9.4¢ | $1.15K | Losing−$12.29 per $100 · 110 bets |
| johndoe.jr0x8baf…e747 | Yes | 29,393 | 5.1¢ | $1.15K | New9 settled bets |
| eNakeVets0x3f3b…1d77 | Yes | 27,557 | 20.4¢ | $1.07K | Losing−$2.00 per $100 · 1,563 bets |
| VRVTeam0xe700…7005 | Yes | 22,886 | 13.0¢ | $893 | Positive+$20.63 per $100 · 101 bets |
| ObiVanCannabis0x2272…b294 | Yes | 22,603 | 9.5¢ | $882 | New75 settled bets |
| usernamen0x636c…1e07 | Yes | 22,447 | 35.8¢ | $875 | New24 settled bets |
| 0xf705…3ca7 | Yes | 21,468 | 9.0¢ | $837 | Proven+$6.45 per $100 · 3,348 bets |
| napuk0xb464…9cda | Yes | 17,503 | 4.2¢ | $683 | New0 settled bets |
| Htxclocks0xf499…b5d9 | Yes | 17,000 | 33.2¢ | $663 | New79 settled bets |
| lolo.l0x0cad…44b0 | Yes | 16,976 | 28.0¢ | $662 | New0 settled bets |
| Copezilla0x9f08…73a8 | Yes | 15,883 | 22.0¢ | $619 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| jorgenjoy0xdd3f…e1ee | Yes | 14,444 | 26.2¢ | $563 | New92 settled bets |
| 0x4be7…1115 | Yes | 14,321 | 9.6¢ | $559 | New29 settled bets |
| Sebaschaps0x9cf8…7f09 | Yes | 14,000 | 11.6¢ | $546 | Losing−$10.62 per $100 · 311 bets |
| srmiiie0xbca5…8727 | Yes | 13,258 | 9.6¢ | $517 | Losing−$55.78 per $100 · 173 bets |
| Guizzz0x26b5…ae60 | Yes | 11,786 | 5.3¢ | $460 | New26 settled bets |
| xiaoxiannv0xbd3b…3a99 | Yes | 11,553 | 20.0¢ | $451 | New33 settled bets |
| Daviid.btv0x338b…26e4 | Yes | 11,368 | 8.5¢ | $443 | New0 settled bets |
| BTCG33K0xc1bb…a95d | Yes | 11,248 | 41.2¢ | $439 | New96 settled bets |
| Cyclewin0xbc0a…35cd | Yes | 11,146 | 3.6¢ | $435 | New0 settled bets |
| billybob20260x155a…6070 | Yes | 11,111 | 53.9¢ | $433 | New1 settled bet |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 10,882 | 43.9¢ | $424 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| wroclawpoznan0xf7a2…ca44 | Yes | 10,399 | 8.8¢ | $406 | New1 settled bet |
| wglbnwallet0xdfcf…a44c | Yes | 10,362 | 48.2¢ | $404 | New23 settled bets |
| jupjupjup0x09b1…a301 | Yes | 10,287 | 23.7¢ | $401 | New51 settled bets |
| samuraicoco0x939c…ad45 | Yes | 10,186 | 46.7¢ | $397 | Losing−$1.85 per $100 · 101 bets |
| Berkaja0xb392…fc73 | Yes | 10,003 | 4.6¢ | $390 | Losing−$20.38 per $100 · 624 bets |
| 0xfe0b…b63f | Yes | 9,555 | 30.6¢ | $373 | New1 settled bet |
| Drivetim30xe21a…57a9 | Yes | 9,500 | 51.2¢ | $370 | New4 settled bets |
| 0x9063…f42f | Yes | 8,500 | 23.2¢ | $332 | Proven+$7.79 per $100 · 104 bets |
| rmax0x02ed…7251 | Yes | 8,397 | 18.5¢ | $327 | New60 settled bets |
| 121dazza0x786e…074e | Yes | 8,260 | 25.5¢ | $322 | New17 settled bets |
| sizuki0x466a…444a | Yes | 8,096 | 26.7¢ | $316 | New0 settled bets |
| eff10xfa05…3db4 | Yes | 7,873 | 25.4¢ | $307 | New1 settled bet |
| 0x2b28…7c0a | Yes | 7,655 | 30.5¢ | $299 | New0 settled bets |
| bill870x2aa4…e47c | Yes | 7,567 | 4.5¢ | $295 | New3 settled bets |
| traderwolfy0x4cf7…28bb | Yes | 7,347 | 32.9¢ | $287 | New41 settled bets |
| 0x7db9…d477 | Yes | 6,824 | 27.3¢ | $266 | New0 settled bets |
| atoutlemonde0xec34…d61e | Yes | 6,800 | 10.5¢ | $265 | Losing−$5.39 per $100 · 6,142 bets |
| walterw30xdf58…cdcb | Yes | 6,781 | 46.8¢ | $264 | Losing−$8.63 per $100 · 118 bets |
| ClearMove0xd7f1…73cd | Yes | 6,639 | 11.7¢ | $259 | Positive+$12.07 per $100 · 1,186 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.