Market · 3 of 10 outcomes
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 07:32 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x2b67…b814 | Yes | 15,000 | 21.5¢ | $2.62K | Proven+$6.28 per $100 · 357 bets |
| web22560x87ad…de46 | Yes | 5,671 | 18.9¢ | $992 | — |
| lennyst0x00ad…bac7 | Yes | 4,932 | 16.5¢ | $863 | — |
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | Yes | 3,817 | 15.6¢ | $668 | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| rebotsliaf0x2061…8ec9 | Yes | 3,283 | 10.0¢ | $575 | Positive+$3.46 per $100 · 888 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 2,190 | 18.7¢ | $383 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 315 | 84.9¢ | $260 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| DEGENKHAN0x21d0…ce91 | Yes | 1,448 | 17.6¢ | $253 | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 2,670 bets |
| rocky420110xe1f1…3a05 | No | 288 | 82.7¢ | $238 | — |
| Dapsy0x73d2…f9b7 | No | 250 | 87.0¢ | $206 | — |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No | 219 | 81.0¢ | $181 | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 22,020 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 1,009 | 14.4¢ | $177 | Positive+$8.63 per $100 · 127,579 bets |
| Javier777Milei0x2e61…19bd | Yes | 1,000 | 19.0¢ | $175 | Positive+$1.85 per $100 · 844 bets |
| MaxEnt0xcf07…c770 | Yes | 1,000 | 12.0¢ | $175 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 690 bets |
| 0x1f85…7b02 | Yes | 956 | 17.0¢ | $167 | — |
| 0x3764…c5eb | Yes | 926 | 20.7¢ | $162 | Proven+$7.49 per $100 · 1,189 bets |
| Herozl0xae6a…329c | Yes | 618 | 26.8¢ | $108 | — |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | No | 115 | 84.2¢ | $95 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 18,243 bets |
| GenaTheBondKilIer0xd632…8afb | Yes | 500 | 19.4¢ | $88 | — |
| testuoju0x7778…6c7b | Yes | 500 | 19.0¢ | $87 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 479 | 10.9¢ | $84 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | No | 101 | 84.0¢ | $83 | — |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | No | 100 | 81.0¢ | $83 | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 8,496 bets |
| acuellarF0xc7fb…8eb0 | No | 100 | 84.5¢ | $83 | Positive+$1.47 per $100 · 434 bets |
| 0xJasonSan0xedc8…3296 | No | 100 | 83.0¢ | $83 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 431 | 20.3¢ | $75 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 404 | 13.7¢ | $71 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,637 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 400 | 19.0¢ | $70 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 273 | 12.3¢ | $48 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,044 bets |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | No | 50 | 82.6¢ | $41 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,981 bets |
| televisionloud0x6c1c…1ac2 | No | 50 | 83.0¢ | $41 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 1,838 bets |
| Eastassignment0xb8b0…1281 | No | 50 | 89.4¢ | $41 | — |
| EconProf0x2811…6818 | No | 49 | 81.6¢ | $40 | Positive+$1.77 per $100 · 519 bets |
| CloudFile100xd97d…d7d8 | No | 48 | 86.0¢ | $39 | — |
| jwd1031030xfa7e…f37e | Yes | 224 | 15.1¢ | $39 | — |
| 0x0840…9746 | Yes | 200 | 17.6¢ | $35 | — |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Yes | 191 | 15.0¢ | $33 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| 0xbeef…620e | No | 40 | 82.3¢ | $33 | — |
| 0xb46c…c34d | Yes | 154 | 16.8¢ | $27 | — |
| molodoyy0x564f…7026 | Yes | 150 | 17.6¢ | $26 | — |
| trussy0x3384…46c4 | Yes | 149 | 19.6¢ | $26 | — |
| Gausslois0xb6b4…6709 | Yes | 140 | 11.2¢ | $25 | — |
| lowiqgenius0x6960…bb6a | Yes | 136 | 22.7¢ | $24 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 28 | 82.8¢ | $23 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 123,093 bets |
| funky240xccba…11f0 | Yes | 131 | 19.8¢ | $23 | — |
| LesterDiamond0x558f…1a56 | No | 25 | 83.7¢ | $21 | Proven+$4.05 per $100 · 23,888 bets |
| JordanMooney0x5136…0e4f | No | 25 | 84.5¢ | $21 | Break-even+$0.37 per $100 · 13,129 bets |
| delphilo0xca52…0cdf | Yes | 118 | 17.6¢ | $21 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 110 | 18.0¢ | $19 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 108 | 19.4¢ | $19 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,938 bets |
| tcs-3120x089b…9f2c | Yes | 106 | 16.5¢ | $19 | — |
| mangoking050x442c…3db8 | Yes | 100 | 13.5¢ | $18 | Losing−$3.09 per $100 · 10,157 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 100 | 17.0¢ | $17 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 93 | 9.7¢ | $16 | — |
| Nobi-Nobita0x24fe…3419 | Yes | 79 | 19.8¢ | $14 | — |
| frontiertrade0xbcc4…fbde | Yes | 78 | 15.0¢ | $14 | — |
| Vane0x4552…0333 | Yes | 72 | 18.0¢ | $13 | Break-even−$0.17 per $100 · 1,471 bets |
| 0xe8c4…8cf3 | Yes | 66 | 17.6¢ | $12 | — |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | No | 14 | 67.9¢ | $12 | Losing−$4.46 per $100 · 1,422 bets |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | 65 | 11.1¢ | $11 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| 0xc6ed…efd3 | No | 14 | 79.7¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x8b46…e83c | Yes | 56 | 18.6¢ | $10 | — |
| praemonitus0x9deb…4c9e | No | 11 | 87.5¢ | $9 | — |
| nitroga0x3cd2…201c | Yes | 54 | 13.5¢ | $9 | — |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 50 | 13.5¢ | $9 | Losing−$5.94 per $100 · 8,489 bets |
| DrS80x03bc…530c | Yes | 50 | 19.0¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 1,985 bets |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 50 | 18.6¢ | $9 | Proven+$9.13 per $100 · 9,031 bets |
| capib0x204b…8ca3 | Yes | 50 | 23.0¢ | $9 | — |
| JimWang0x474f…c9de | Yes | 50 | 20.6¢ | $9 | — |
| T-deg0x9163…0cab | Yes | 50 | 19.0¢ | $9 | — |
| BOOST2500xac7a…414f | Yes | 50 | 17.0¢ | $9 | — |
| ddd1d430x0b4e…4d72 | No | 10 | 78.0¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 3,507 bets |
| adsfasdf1130x0dba…2db9 | No | 10 | 85.0¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 7,608 bets |
| ddd333aaa0x1dc1…5f5b | No | 10 | 81.0¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 4,786 bets |
| sd4f5g67h8j90x31a4…dd86 | No | 10 | 87.5¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x86dd…1af2 | No | 10 | 85.0¢ | $8 | — |
| aaadda0xa840…87f7 | No | 10 | 81.0¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 4,316 bets |
| ilovecarrots0x03e1…e180 | No | 8 | 77.1¢ | $7 | Losing−$1.64 per $100 · 2,068 bets |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | No | 5 | 82.6¢ | $4 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| 3874110074156118140922178973870xa49b…7054 | No | 5 | 80.2¢ | $4 | Positive+$3.43 per $100 · 43,171+ bets · updating |
| 0xd43f…c66b | No | 5 | 87.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x05b2…c70d | No | 5 | 68.2¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xb891…502f | No | 4 | 80.6¢ | $3 | — |
| bigceohiko0x5b7b…5116 | No | 1 | 84.5¢ | $1 | Losing−$12.13 per $100 · 468 bets |
| Tanker3370xad86…5038 | No | 1 | 84.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 140ytu0x28a2…3e5d | No | 1 | 75.7¢ | $1 | — |
| crypto-futur30x31cc…ea6b | No | 1 | 81.6¢ | $1 | New47 settled bets |
| trrr120x184b…67b2 | No | 1 | 88.4¢ | $1 | — |
| Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | 4 | 9.7¢ | $1 | Positive+$7.96 per $100 · 18,813 bets |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 0 | 77.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 44,379+ bets · updating |
| 50kcasestudy0xeb54…d452 | No | 0 | 88.4¢ | $0 | — |
| Majas0x4959…a6f5 | No | 0 | 84.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 22,612 bets |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | No | 0 | 84.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| leantiger0xa1b1…6a83 | No | 0 | 83.6¢ | $0 | — |
| legendaryassassin490x1771…75cb | No | 0 | 84.0¢ | $0 | — |
| bigbrainchad0x113f…ae4d | No | 0 | 84.5¢ | $0 | — |
| Tee10000x5edc…bbad | No | 0 | 83.6¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.84 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 99 events · $6.03M in play
Exactly one of this event's 10 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.