Market · 2 of 6 outcomes
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:58 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | Yes | 11,921 | 83.3¢ | $8.76K | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| Ume-Chang0xae89…90b8 | Yes | 4,707 | 78.5¢ | $3.46K | Losing−$2.13 per $100 · 8,308 bets |
| ethhte0xc278…2d19 | Yes | 3,378 | 74.8¢ | $2.48K | — |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Yes | 3,286 | 79.0¢ | $2.41K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 3,003 | 79.4¢ | $2.21K | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 29,989+ bets · updating |
| akimbogod0x6056…c27c | Yes | 2,600 | 80.4¢ | $1.91K | Proven+$8.97 per $100 · 148 bets |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | Yes | 2,318 | 76.2¢ | $1.7K | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| 0x2b67…b814 | No | 6,000 | 21.6¢ | $1.59K | Proven+$6.18 per $100 · 355 bets |
| hypebot20x1a94…db1d | No | 4,600 | 26.0¢ | $1.22K | — |
| Fulgurator0x0130…274c | Yes | 1,500 | 78.2¢ | $1.1K | New87 settled bets |
| Trading4Fridge0x2525…b919 | Yes | 1,469 | 72.0¢ | $1.08K | — |
| 0x87120xa676…1c22 | No | 4,000 | 18.5¢ | $1.06K | Break-even−$0.99 per $100 · 424 bets |
| momhotwallet0x6974…d0cb | No | 3,988 | 22.7¢ | $1.06K | — |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | Yes | 1,227 | 82.7¢ | $901 | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 625 bets |
| takeormake0xa38a…821d | No | 3,257 | 33.8¢ | $863 | Break-even+$0.05 per $100 · 8,323 bets |
| title10xbe74…a70e | No | 3,095 | 20.0¢ | $820 | Positive+$1.92 per $100 · 7,460 bets |
| M2sx92kljs420xb4f2…e5fa | No | 3,013 | 25.1¢ | $798 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 549 bets |
| mombil0x68c2…1711 | No | 3,000 | 19.7¢ | $795 | Proven+$5.27 per $100 · 3,127 bets |
| 0x46a1…2736 | Yes | 1,000 | 78.0¢ | $735 | Positive+$1.73 per $100 · 710 bets |
| 83offwrf0x663b…67be | Yes | 900 | 81.0¢ | $662 | — |
| Liechti00xb410…57eb | Yes | 746 | 67.9¢ | $549 | New63 settled bets |
| 0xdc3E831cad0x5ecd…0787 | No | 1,859 | 19.6¢ | $493 | Positive+$2.43 per $100 · 5,618 bets |
| 0x4b7d…cdb3 | Yes | 667 | 76.1¢ | $490 | — |
| yoyobb20180x832b…5c91 | Yes | 632 | 79.1¢ | $464 | Break-even−$0.11 per $100 · 1,007 bets |
| Started-with-20-USD0x4388…5050 | No | 1,694 | 22.6¢ | $449 | — |
| kevinzhaoo0xd235…6f93 | No | 1,592 | 32.3¢ | $422 | — |
| balabalababalabala0x2779…239a | No | 1,459 | 30.6¢ | $387 | — |
| enrico-vasaio0xcc79…1c2a | Yes | 500 | 76.0¢ | $368 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,143 bets |
| 0xb261…09a7 | No | 1,201 | 19.4¢ | $318 | — |
| rabbit0070xf2aa…21fb | Yes | 400 | 74.8¢ | $294 | Proven+$9.18 per $100 · 860 bets |
| dromedaryy0x6575…b198 | Yes | 392 | 87.5¢ | $288 | New85 settled bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 390 | 75.0¢ | $287 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 10,235 bets |
| 0xba66…ca3c | No | 1,051 | 19.6¢ | $279 | — |
| 0x4e84…ef69 | No | 947 | 22.9¢ | $251 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 809 bets |
| 08A0x16ad…936f | Yes | 300 | 79.4¢ | $221 | — |
| fdsfsds0x758e…ad1c | Yes | 300 | 81.6¢ | $221 | — |
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | Yes | 300 | 76.0¢ | $221 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 3,277 bets |
| 0x786b…9519 | Yes | 263 | 77.2¢ | $193 | — |
| simulacrum30x2843…b3d2 | Yes | 227 | 82.2¢ | $167 | — |
| breakingcute0x7dff…1f35 | Yes | 213 | 84.9¢ | $156 | — |
| acuellarF0xc7fb…8eb0 | Yes | 200 | 81.6¢ | $147 | Positive+$1.47 per $100 · 434 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 186 | 84.4¢ | $137 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,059 bets |
| 0x2a0c…a691 | No | 500 | 20.3¢ | $133 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 169 | 77.9¢ | $124 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,860 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 153 | 72.7¢ | $112 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 150 | 76.6¢ | $110 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| rominatur0xec06…9178 | No | 408 | 16.2¢ | $108 | — |
| burlador0xceea…ec81 | Yes | 141 | 85.6¢ | $104 | — |
| Thewozzy0x560c…bba8 | Yes | 137 | 77.7¢ | $100 | — |
| anbol0xa5d9…8177 | Yes | 133 | 75.7¢ | $98 | — |
| dzog-chen0x7fb2…69e5 | No | 357 | 28.8¢ | $95 | — |
| molly-rabby0x663f…bb92 | Yes | 125 | 80.0¢ | $92 | — |
| 0x8889…4550 | Yes | 123 | 81.6¢ | $91 | — |
| DC33660xfc60…fdc5 | Yes | 115 | 87.5¢ | $84 | — |
| gcriq0xd0bb…fcf9 | Yes | 110 | 91.3¢ | $81 | — |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | Yes | 95 | 85.0¢ | $70 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 770 bets |
| 0x5b91…2709 | No | 200 | 18.6¢ | $53 | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 1,151 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 200 | 20.0¢ | $53 | — |
| Cheas0x89b9…1b84 | No | 189 | 28.8¢ | $50 | — |
| agentslaughter0x8d65…da6e | Yes | 68 | 74.8¢ | $50 | — |
| donatar10x9e05…6554 | No | 185 | 27.8¢ | $49 | — |
| Tharayman0x837b…ad2d | No | 173 | 28.8¢ | $46 | — |
| benoitgagnon9970xe379…d124 | Yes | 55 | 78.4¢ | $40 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | No | 145 | 16.5¢ | $39 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| 123dao0x676f…1f16 | No | 143 | 35.9¢ | $38 | — |
| low-prob-test-1-kes0xa6e5…28a0 | No | 142 | 27.8¢ | $38 | — |
| Tomas77770xf9c0…62b2 | Yes | 50 | 78.0¢ | $37 | — |
| MaxEnt0xcf07…c770 | No | 135 | 20.6¢ | $36 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 690 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 44 | 78.0¢ | $32 | Losing−$8.60 per $100 · 29,951+ bets · updating |
| fjwioewef0xcfe8…30cb | No | 120 | 15.5¢ | $32 | — |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | Yes | 43 | 79.0¢ | $31 | — |
| rocky420130xf971…0a57 | No | 113 | 19.1¢ | $30 | — |
| obscure10x8268…e7fd | Yes | 39 | 78.0¢ | $28 | — |
| Myfichs0x204c…1e26 | No | 100 | 22.7¢ | $27 | — |
| Afjszxxcz0x2db4…410f | No | 100 | 20.6¢ | $27 | — |
| Dolev13030xe6bf…5cad | No | 100 | 25.8¢ | $27 | — |
| dussano0x9009…b96d | No | 89 | 28.8¢ | $24 | — |
| Maximus3740x0547…fb35 | Yes | 30 | 77.0¢ | $22 | — |
| tacor0x033b…5fd4 | No | 81 | 20.5¢ | $21 | — |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | No | 80 | 26.8¢ | $21 | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,742 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 24 | 74.0¢ | $17 | Losing−$6.47 per $100 · 30,061+ bets · updating |
| MetrixNeo0x6a07…f0b0 | No | 63 | 16.5¢ | $17 | — |
| 0x2fce…09c0 | No | 61 | 25.6¢ | $16 | — |
| 0x68fd…57c0 | Yes | 21 | 73.8¢ | $15 | — |
| mulpodsa850x2e31…d5fd | No | 56 | 36.9¢ | $15 | — |
| yarrro0x4454…f6bf | Yes | 20 | 87.5¢ | $15 | — |
| vbm0x8304…f086 | Yes | 20 | 75.8¢ | $15 | — |
| MtnMark0x70ff…b65f | No | 50 | 24.7¢ | $13 | Positive+$40.45 per $100 · 239 bets |
| nottheworst20x98bd…781e | No | 50 | 19.7¢ | $13 | — |
| V4grant0xf5bb…bdb8 | No | 42 | 24.7¢ | $11 | — |
| 0xc8c9…2e25 | No | 40 | 16.5¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x8b46…e83c | Yes | 14 | 73.8¢ | $10 | — |
| Omernissim0x6463…79c4 | No | 36 | 28.8¢ | $9 | — |
| NoTeacher0xcb48…be6d | No | 33 | 24.0¢ | $9 | — |
| 0xbe26…66ce | No | 30 | 26.8¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x6bdc…9036 | No | 26 | 16.5¢ | $7 | — |
| timun5890x78aa…7bf1 | No | 20 | 24.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xce0c…2945 | No | 18 | 28.8¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x4394…3055 | No | 14 | 35.9¢ | $4 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 90 events · $5.92M in play