Market · 2 of 21 outcomes
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 10:33 UTC. Not financial advice.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 100 events · $6.03M in play
Exactly one of this event's 21 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 9 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Popopolly0xc74a…f01b | Yes | 117,433 | 78.9¢ | $29.9K | — |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 38,862 | 44.6¢ | $29K | Losing−$7.36 per $100 · 1,391 bets |
| klinxiowl0x09c0…6f73 | Yes | 56,966 | 35.4¢ | $14.5K | — |
| eightpenguins0x3c59…1766 | No | 15,896 | 59.0¢ | $11.8K | Proven+$14.44 per $100 · 681 bets |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | No | 9,585 | 12.4¢ | $7.14K | Proven+$12.04 per $100 · 581 bets |
| KiruaTrading0xa7d2…f954 | No | 9,378 | 13.5¢ | $6.99K | — |
| PermanentUnderclass0x1f18…bf24 | No | 5,922 | 63.5¢ | $4.41K | — |
| grandvalira0x53c4…9522 | No | 5,000 | 12.4¢ | $3.73K | — |
| lisra0xfc76…0ad0 | Yes | 13,664 | 34.7¢ | $3.48K | — |
| almosthere0xbd2b…1a1b | No | 4,496 | 36.6¢ | $3.35K | Positive+$6.09 per $100 · 137 bets |
| rando123450xb401…df2a | No | 4,233 | 64.7¢ | $3.15K | Break-even+$0.84 per $100 · 561 bets |
| MineYours0xe096…be8e | No | 4,160 | 12.4¢ | $3.1K | — |
| lamyk0xc004…c095 | No | 3,571 | 14.5¢ | $2.66K | — |
| bmtr0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | 7,648 | 43.8¢ | $1.95K | — |
| ryzt0x75bb…0ac5 | No | 2,510 | 12.4¢ | $1.87K | Positive+$1.35 per $100 · 450 bets |
| rewardbots0x876b…1703 | Yes | 7,070 | 27.9¢ | $1.8K | Proven+$11.14 per $100 · 503 bets |
| dadalima0xc797…753a | Yes | 6,515 | 29.5¢ | $1.66K | — |
| Smart-bettor70x7845…417b | No | 2,200 | 72.0¢ | $1.64K | Losing−$1.64 per $100 · 525 bets |
| 0xb522…3ebb | Yes | 6,149 | 65.7¢ | $1.57K | — |
| 0xa277…1182 | No | 2,050 | 61.5¢ | $1.53K | — |
| troim0x4a2b…af20 | No | 2,000 | 74.0¢ | $1.49K | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 1,254 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 1,991 | 69.1¢ | $1.48K | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | No | 1,990 | 28.3¢ | $1.48K | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 3,277 bets |
| bartholomew310x56e3…81cc | Yes | 5,224 | 39.9¢ | $1.33K | — |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate0x7365…64da | Yes | 5,000 | 28.8¢ | $1.28K | Proven+$13.02 per $100 · 1,204 bets |
| dedidanc0x11f8…ed31 | No | 1,628 | 65.2¢ | $1.21K | Proven+$11.21 per $100 · 235 bets |
| Djibooty0x9690…f2d5 | No | 1,500 | 63.9¢ | $1.12K | — |
| LuisSuarez90xfdf2…0699 | No | 1,382 | 58.0¢ | $1.03K | — |
| 0x848282837738290xe38e…50c8 | Yes | 4,000 | 37.7¢ | $1.02K | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 1,324 | 62.3¢ | $986 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,641 bets |
| Rumpelstiltskin0xfb1b…a11d | No | 1,224 | 74.2¢ | $912 | — |
| groth0x71ab…f015 | No | 1,191 | 65.3¢ | $887 | Proven+$20.88 per $100 · 540 bets |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | No | 1,181 | 72.0¢ | $880 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 22,911 bets |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | No | 1,136 | 68.0¢ | $847 | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| Dragontree0x2c39…56dc | Yes | 3,234 | 27.8¢ | $825 | Proven+$2.69 per $100 · 3,239 bets |
| moonlight20200x407d…1bae | No | 1,091 | 63.0¢ | $813 | Proven+$3.85 per $100 · 319 bets |
| PavtheGreat0x048a…9be4 | No | 1,000 | 63.3¢ | $745 | Losing−$1.76 per $100 · 325 bets |
| aviato0x2a01…6397 | No | 1,000 | 72.0¢ | $745 | Positive+$1.04 per $100 · 3,741 bets |
| hwey346ed0x8637…39bd | No | 1,000 | 60.0¢ | $745 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 987 | 65.7¢ | $735 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,412 bets |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 894 | 70.1¢ | $666 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 2,562 | 74.0¢ | $653 | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 252,392+ bets · updating |
| wwon0x4fbc…0e57 | Yes | 2,419 | 48.5¢ | $617 | — |
| Cooper10xf6cb…8497 | Yes | 2,300 | 66.3¢ | $586 | — |
| AnonymousElephant690xbeb9…3870 | No | 695 | 36.1¢ | $518 | — |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Yes | 1,900 | 37.8¢ | $485 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| SteviaDaddy0x1cac…6f43 | No | 643 | 63.6¢ | $479 | — |
| bleed10xa27f…0ce8 | Yes | 1,859 | 29.6¢ | $474 | — |
| Soulwinder0x575b…14f0 | No | 633 | 11.7¢ | $472 | — |
| 0x12f4…2e5e | Yes | 1,816 | 89.4¢ | $463 | — |
| wong220xba33…def2 | Yes | 1,760 | 48.2¢ | $449 | — |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | No | 600 | 66.7¢ | $447 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No | 555 | 63.0¢ | $413 | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 22,021 bets |
| Rr550xb8ad…ff58 | Yes | 1,505 | 63.9¢ | $384 | — |
| Rex4160x9a3f…914a | No | 500 | 74.0¢ | $373 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 6,881 bets |
| cdecercwd0x5d2d…d535 | No | 500 | 74.0¢ | $373 | Positive+$2.25 per $100 · 106 bets |
| danielbrod0xca76…d365 | No | 500 | 73.3¢ | $372 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | No | 461 | 72.4¢ | $343 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,311 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 459 | 67.4¢ | $342 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| RGBluey0x391f…b017 | Yes | 1,299 | 69.6¢ | $331 | — |
| poposub0x3d7d…10fc | No | 427 | 63.1¢ | $318 | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 15,432 bets |
| ilmari990x2ef6…c761 | Yes | 1,244 | 41.2¢ | $317 | — |
| uang0x909e…3153 | Yes | 1,196 | 53.7¢ | $305 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 401 | 71.7¢ | $299 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| 0x652b…f5c2 | No | 400 | 58.5¢ | $298 | Proven+$9.60 per $100 · 493 bets |
| qfwdsd10x00cb…e987 | No | 391 | 60.0¢ | $291 | Losing−$5.28 per $100 · 3,166 bets |
| 0x43cb…84df | No | 391 | 55.4¢ | $291 | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 29,809 bets |
| vtx0x6718…e623 | Yes | 1,140 | 81.0¢ | $291 | Proven+$11.91 per $100 · 142 bets |
| rocky420030x2e62…b22e | No | 351 | 69.7¢ | $261 | Positive+$1.77 per $100 · 10,636 bets |
| liuhiyi0xa3e0…8285 | Yes | 1,020 | 42.1¢ | $260 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 1,018 | 37.0¢ | $260 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| doeyej20x2355…05d1 | Yes | 1,000 | 85.7¢ | $255 | — |
| dogerfad0x6cb2…99a3 | Yes | 1,000 | 40.0¢ | $255 | New45 settled bets |
| JimWuSecond0x8a47…d7f1 | Yes | 979 | 61.8¢ | $250 | — |
| lyifie220xb074…6869 | Yes | 977 | 38.1¢ | $249 | — |
| Mustafalafel0x8c0b…f0fb | No | 333 | 67.0¢ | $248 | Proven+$9.94 per $100 · 497 bets |
| dips.0xc785…4ef2 | No | 326 | 72.5¢ | $243 | Break-even−$0.30 per $100 · 33,698 bets |
| 0xcbf7…c466 | No | 313 | 67.5¢ | $233 | — |
| M88800x44da…e225 | Yes | 900 | 28.7¢ | $229 | Proven+$3.17 per $100 · 159 bets |
| whskrz0x1c40…445c | Yes | 868 | 31.9¢ | $221 | — |
| ifyouloveme0x5a0d…fa97 | Yes | 826 | 30.8¢ | $211 | Positive+$2.57 per $100 · 549 bets |
| poluser20260x40a7…91c9 | Yes | 825 | 31.9¢ | $210 | New13 settled bets |
| liuyiming5880x4e48…8d02 | Yes | 812 | 32.4¢ | $207 | — |
| bridling5200xe06a…da38 | Yes | 805 | 49.8¢ | $205 | — |
| soll20x9bdc…f830 | Yes | 800 | 59.5¢ | $204 | Losing−$4.27 per $100 · 136 bets |
| K7fhp9vXm2Rtw4LbN8cGy3Ds6AoE0xa68b…c4b4 | Yes | 800 | 33.1¢ | $204 | — |
| yangyangzi8320xb9fe…92f3 | Yes | 800 | 37.6¢ | $204 | — |
| 1nvoker10x748a…3c56 | Yes | 800 | 26.6¢ | $204 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 914 bets |
| yiyiwong0xd765…8528 | Yes | 785 | 52.0¢ | $200 | — |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | Yes | 784 | 45.5¢ | $200 | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 625 bets |
| yieeliu50xc3f7…8c26 | Yes | 765 | 45.7¢ | $195 | — |
| Jingzong0x31b0…b6fa | No | 252 | 80.1¢ | $188 | Break-even−$0.30 per $100 · 160 bets |
| healggy0xe089…bedd | Yes | 713 | 38.8¢ | $182 | — |
| babboomanreturns0x924f…3787 | Yes | 702 | 85.9¢ | $179 | — |
| YURYOZ0xce7e…e65f | Yes | 700 | 28.1¢ | $179 | — |
| babbooman0xadcd…29e9 | Yes | 686 | 87.9¢ | $175 | Losing−$7.28 per $100 · 263 bets |
| kuongsunwu0x37c0…8149 | Yes | 667 | 50.7¢ | $170 | — |
| 0x8df9…468c | Yes | 666 | 34.2¢ | $170 | — |
| zubajie880xf67c…bbfb | Yes | 660 | 56.7¢ | $168 | — |
| sodooo0xa170…95af | Yes | 631 | 37.9¢ | $161 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.