Market · 2 of 21 outcomes
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:20 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pump0xe74d…22fd | Yes | 5,938 | 37.9¢ | $2.38K | — |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 3,382 | 55.9¢ | $2.03K | Losing−$7.36 per $100 · 1,390 bets |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | No | 2,280 | 58.3¢ | $1.37K | Proven+$12.04 per $100 · 581 bets |
| lisra0xfc76…0ad0 | Yes | 2,535 | 45.4¢ | $1.01K | — |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 1,352 | 61.8¢ | $811 | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 19,488 bets |
| Mustafalafel0x8c0b…f0fb | No | 1,000 | 55.5¢ | $600 | Proven+$9.94 per $100 · 497 bets |
| Rr550xb8ad…ff58 | Yes | 1,406 | 36.9¢ | $562 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 1,347 | 19.0¢ | $539 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,044 bets |
| K7fhp9vXm2Rtw4LbN8cGy3Ds6AoE0xa68b…c4b4 | No | 600 | 56.0¢ | $360 | — |
| Copyright-10x235e…5673 | Yes | 700 | 43.0¢ | $280 | Losing−$4.45 per $100 · 2,194 bets |
| TBill10xd52b…5c72 | No | 457 | 25.6¢ | $274 | Proven+$2.13 per $100 · 561 bets |
| bmtr0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | 669 | 54.2¢ | $268 | — |
| wong220xba33…def2 | Yes | 600 | 45.7¢ | $240 | — |
| qqtuzon0x9cb4…c867 | Yes | 587 | 78.7¢ | $235 | — |
| code.up0x2e2f…6884 | Yes | 582 | 84.7¢ | $233 | Losing−$4.67 per $100 · 230 bets |
| poluser20260x40a7…91c9 | Yes | 547 | 46.0¢ | $219 | New13 settled bets |
| bridling5200xe06a…da38 | Yes | 520 | 41.3¢ | $208 | — |
| vtx0x6718…e623 | Yes | 500 | 84.0¢ | $200 | Proven+$11.91 per $100 · 142 bets |
| uang0x909e…3153 | Yes | 495 | 46.6¢ | $198 | — |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No | 309 | 61.0¢ | $185 | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 22,020 bets |
| 0x241F...e15a0x241f…e15a | Yes | 453 | 84.0¢ | $181 | — |
| wwon0x4fbc…0e57 | Yes | 432 | 37.3¢ | $173 | — |
| liuyiming5880x4e48…8d02 | Yes | 420 | 42.6¢ | $168 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 277 | 62.9¢ | $166 | — |
| premine0xce63…1e98 | Yes | 405 | 38.0¢ | $162 | — |
| zhangyihan8280x2b1c…1a25 | Yes | 400 | 43.5¢ | $160 | — |
| liuhiyi0xa3e0…8285 | Yes | 400 | 35.5¢ | $160 | — |
| laygaga0x85fb…342b | Yes | 395 | 38.9¢ | $158 | — |
| kuongsunwu0x37c0…8149 | Yes | 360 | 38.7¢ | $144 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 352 | 18.3¢ | $141 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| zubajie880xf67c…bbfb | Yes | 340 | 43.8¢ | $136 | — |
| lyifie220xb074…6869 | Yes | 338 | 41.1¢ | $135 | — |
| yieeliu50xc3f7…8c26 | Yes | 332 | 42.3¢ | $133 | — |
| fjlivy0x4620…2916 | Yes | 300 | 38.0¢ | $120 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 197 | 56.0¢ | $118 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,396 bets |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 250 | 20.0¢ | $100 | Positive+$43.18 per $100 · 2,767 bets |
| grandmothergrammy0x2d5b…e94b | Yes | 247 | 41.0¢ | $99 | — |
| devvopnb0x7585…7be2 | Yes | 246 | 41.6¢ | $98 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 244 | 27.4¢ | $98 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| yangyangzi8320xb9fe…92f3 | Yes | 240 | 41.2¢ | $96 | — |
| Agecanonix0xe068…c5ea | No | 150 | 58.0¢ | $90 | — |
| samuv0x9457…95a9 | Yes | 204 | 50.1¢ | $82 | — |
| SlayerH0x17e4…4d33 | Yes | 200 | 50.0¢ | $80 | Losing−$7.61 per $100 · 480 bets |
| yiyiwong0xd765…8528 | Yes | 200 | 45.0¢ | $80 | — |
| alijbee0x1874…594f | No | 130 | 53.5¢ | $78 | Proven+$3.99 per $100 · 259 bets |
| Albedo000x160d…6f25 | Yes | 191 | 42.0¢ | $77 | Losing−$6.18 per $100 · 3,947 bets |
| Vovasa0xf319…1902 | Yes | 190 | 45.1¢ | $76 | — |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 178 | 37.0¢ | $71 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| midfarm0xe207…26de | Yes | 176 | 38.8¢ | $70 | — |
| 2020xb0x263a…f5aa | No | 105 | 48.7¢ | $63 | New31 settled bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 100 | 62.5¢ | $60 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| superadmin0x3612…7f0e | Yes | 136 | 80.9¢ | $54 | — |
| kavka990x4199…169e | No | 90 | 55.0¢ | $54 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 120 | 45.0¢ | $48 | — |
| LesterDiamond0x558f…1a56 | No | 75 | 51.0¢ | $45 | Proven+$4.05 per $100 · 23,888 bets |
| kiohssudhhd0xd0a5…3e7f | No | 74 | 67.0¢ | $44 | — |
| 0x40fe…3bfd | Yes | 110 | 85.5¢ | $44 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 70 | 62.6¢ | $42 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| 0x3653…ef74 | Yes | 102 | 2.9¢ | $41 | — |
| RATHMA40xf9ac…806e | Yes | 100 | 80.0¢ | $40 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 91 | 40.5¢ | $36 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| 0xc8c9…a94a | Yes | 77 | 36.4¢ | $31 | New65 settled bets |
| JordanMooney0x5136…0e4f | No | 50 | 59.0¢ | $30 | Break-even+$0.37 per $100 · 13,129 bets |
| pizdi.bolyu0x27b9…90d0 | No | 48 | 56.0¢ | $29 | Losing−$10.49 per $100 · 1,464 bets |
| kotyakayebaka0xefe9…b8ec | No | 48 | 57.0¢ | $29 | — |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | No | 41 | 59.0¢ | $24 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| 0x29ef…ddda | Yes | 60 | 45.0¢ | $24 | — |
| 0x8fed…2413 | Yes | 60 | 43.0¢ | $24 | — |
| Rin2x0x21c5…3533 | Yes | 50 | 86.5¢ | $20 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 4,624 bets |
| LeChatonFat0x9629…ee15 | Yes | 50 | 45.0¢ | $20 | — |
| holmesbeverly0x7c75…bffd | No | 30 | 60.0¢ | $18 | — |
| 0x5352…fc6b | No | 30 | 51.0¢ | $18 | — |
| trojashka0x818e…a1e3 | Yes | 43 | 47.0¢ | $17 | — |
| anthonyburke0x112c…da26 | No | 28 | 62.0¢ | $17 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 27 | 61.0¢ | $16 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Z91EX0x3f67…002d | No | 20 | 16.5¢ | $12 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | No | 20 | 21.5¢ | $12 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| predictdogepepewif0xf524…8178 | No | 20 | 59.0¢ | $12 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 11,425 bets |
| ddd333aaa0x1dc1…5f5b | No | 10 | 64.0¢ | $6 | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 4,786 bets |
| 0x86dd…1af2 | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $6 | — |
| Terrence19920xc094…c8d4 | No | 7 | 58.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$4.45 per $100 · 2,984 bets |
| 0x1bf5…ff5e | No | 5 | 61.0¢ | $3 | — |
| ddd13421b0x1292…b00b | No | 3 | 63.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.73 per $100 · 9,059 bets |
| 0xa9db…a3f1 | No | 2 | 60.0¢ | $1 | — |
| leantiger0xa1b1…6a83 | No | 0 | 62.9¢ | $0 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 0 | 62.9¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.63 per $100 · 127,579 bets |
| rocky420180xeda0…7dff | No | 0 | 62.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 0 | 22.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| gfdgfvfvssdd0x84bb…1477 | No | 0 | 64.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$4.15 per $100 · 9,376 bets |
| Beubeu0x4435…786f | No | 0 | 59.1¢ | $0 | — |
| gavinfunda0xb924…0803 | No | 0 | 64.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 99 events · $6.03M in play
Exactly one of this event's 21 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.