Market · 2 of 6 outcomes
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:59 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| obeymesubjects0xacdf…251c | Yes | 15,000 | 77.0¢ | $10.6K | — |
| poli.monaco0xf767…61df | No | 22,097 | 30.5¢ | $6.43K | — |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | Yes | 6,323 | 92.9¢ | $4.48K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 770 bets |
| 0xc42d…ca94 | Yes | 5,175 | 76.2¢ | $3.67K | — |
| 0x977a…2907 | Yes | 4,218 | 82.1¢ | $2.99K | — |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate0x7365…64da | Yes | 3,844 | 35.4¢ | $2.73K | Proven+$12.92 per $100 · 1,201 bets |
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | No | 8,171 | 13.4¢ | $2.38K | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 3,277 bets |
| dublyash20xb94c…4c0c | Yes | 3,323 | 60.8¢ | $2.36K | — |
| 0x633c…781f | Yes | 3,240 | 89.8¢ | $2.3K | — |
| 0xc6f8…8efb | Yes | 2,547 | 87.5¢ | $1.81K | — |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | No | 5,728 | 36.7¢ | $1.67K | Proven+$6.06 per $100 · 622 bets |
| rewardbots0x876b…1703 | No | 4,815 | 13.0¢ | $1.4K | Proven+$11.14 per $100 · 503 bets |
| PiMaak0xf7bb…a9f7 | Yes | 1,793 | 68.5¢ | $1.27K | — |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | No | 4,196 | 7.0¢ | $1.22K | Proven+$12.11 per $100 · 580 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 1,442 | 90.0¢ | $1.02K | Break-even−$0.90 per $100 · 29,886+ bets · updating |
| dedidanc0x11f8…ed31 | Yes | 1,399 | 91.3¢ | $992 | Proven+$11.02 per $100 · 220 bets |
| Hakei.0x97ea…3363 | No | 3,333 | 66.0¢ | $970 | Proven+$4.64 per $100 · 2,040 bets |
| 0x1e0f…9eb0 | Yes | 1,321 | 80.4¢ | $937 | — |
| JokerTheClown0x819d…07f1 | Yes | 1,130 | 79.1¢ | $801 | Proven+$23.82 per $100 · 12,229 bets |
| Olcan0x355e…a038 | No | 2,265 | 33.0¢ | $659 | Proven+$6.23 per $100 · 4,942 bets |
| ifyouloveme0x5a0d…fa97 | Yes | 893 | 55.8¢ | $633 | Positive+$2.57 per $100 · 549 bets |
| longdated-poli0x167a…91d5 | Yes | 892 | 89.3¢ | $632 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 835 | 77.1¢ | $592 | Losing−$8.60 per $100 · 29,951+ bets · updating |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 1,909 | 9.7¢ | $556 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| variant1.meta0xdf59…deb0 | No | 1,486 | 15.1¢ | $432 | — |
| magiccat0070xde17…17c1 | Yes | 592 | 41.6¢ | $420 | — |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 493 | 90.4¢ | $349 | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 29,989+ bets · updating |
| Rumpelstiltskin0xfb1b…a11d | Yes | 488 | 50.9¢ | $346 | — |
| gambler9250x76db…6987 | No | 1,119 | 29.2¢ | $326 | — |
| chessplayer0x4b8a…f4a4 | No | 1,010 | 7.1¢ | $294 | Losing−$1.15 per $100 · 12,688 bets |
| 0x43cb…84df | Yes | 401 | 83.5¢ | $284 | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 29,809 bets |
| pykue0xa45f…d6cb | Yes | 357 | 66.1¢ | $253 | — |
| 0x8673…59a5 | Yes | 285 | 88.1¢ | $202 | — |
| Banditoes0xe7fe…24e5 | Yes | 275 | 77.2¢ | $195 | — |
| cat67670x124a…3741 | Yes | 273 | 85.0¢ | $194 | — |
| 0xb1e7…5d74 | No | 588 | 8.0¢ | $171 | — |
| z1xus0x9409…045d | Yes | 235 | 89.8¢ | $166 | — |
| lalajuv0x0b52…a6d5 | Yes | 229 | 87.5¢ | $162 | — |
| hadarhaddad0x1946…6367 | Yes | 210 | 91.0¢ | $149 | — |
| Wasserturm0xfb82…0318 | Yes | 205 | 79.1¢ | $145 | — |
| 0x7eef…44a0 | Yes | 201 | 90.8¢ | $142 | — |
| 0x7dcf…a4e5 | Yes | 200 | 76.0¢ | $142 | — |
| 0x4f71…1721 | Yes | 200 | 77.0¢ | $142 | — |
| sisiru0xd925…86b5 | Yes | 200 | 45.8¢ | $142 | — |
| simulacrum30x2843…b3d2 | Yes | 200 | 82.4¢ | $142 | — |
| KimchiCapital0x9578…f066 | Yes | 196 | 49.9¢ | $139 | — |
| Knowyourball0x8594…7eed | Yes | 189 | 80.1¢ | $134 | — |
| lisa670x5768…08fd | No | 454 | 4.3¢ | $132 | — |
| sdfsdfsdfsdf20x321e…9292 | Yes | 186 | 77.0¢ | $132 | — |
| 420210x0d42…f124 | Yes | 171 | 79.5¢ | $121 | Positive+$1.35 per $100 · 9,208 bets |
| crampedspirit0xcb29…9df3 | Yes | 163 | 89.3¢ | $116 | — |
| melonmanm0x0787…0ca3 | No | 395 | 8.6¢ | $115 | — |
| parameter10xae91…0f69 | Yes | 150 | 65.3¢ | $106 | — |
| hereandthere70xd0d3…ac48 | Yes | 142 | 71.2¢ | $101 | — |
| stanelyew0x7ae4…5cd2 | Yes | 141 | 71.6¢ | $100 | — |
| robert-mukhametov0x0e6b…3a4c | Yes | 133 | 36.5¢ | $94 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 300 | 28.3¢ | $87 | — |
| SET-2290xd5d7…5e39 | No | 300 | 6.9¢ | $87 | — |
| 0x2f22…25e9 | Yes | 116 | 69.0¢ | $82 | — |
| techhawk0xc555…371f | Yes | 109 | 56.2¢ | $77 | — |
| chillyflix0xa57f…9ea3 | Yes | 105 | 50.6¢ | $74 | — |
| maybebrian0x580a…a236 | No | 254 | 20.2¢ | $74 | — |
| mnshhhh0x8780…4e7d | Yes | 104 | 48.5¢ | $74 | — |
| merrynew0xa321…c3e2 | Yes | 102 | 52.5¢ | $72 | — |
| PredictionPuppy0x23d1…743a | Yes | 100 | 79.4¢ | $71 | — |
| seehi0x4451…fcbe | Yes | 100 | 76.7¢ | $71 | Losing−$7.83 per $100 · 359 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 242 | 40.8¢ | $70 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| 0x19e5…d7cd | No | 222 | 23.1¢ | $64 | — |
| midfarm0xe207…26de | No | 200 | 9.4¢ | $58 | — |
| nucleargulf0x9ba6…c46a | No | 197 | 21.5¢ | $57 | — |
| shikashiz0xde72…0d26 | No | 192 | 13.0¢ | $56 | — |
| 0xb0e5…aa4c | No | 190 | 16.4¢ | $55 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 177 | 31.8¢ | $51 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| StillWater00x7bab…8322 | No | 170 | 7.0¢ | $49 | — |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | No | 151 | 19.3¢ | $44 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| lightsout9120x7e1d…4d41 | No | 100 | 12.0¢ | $29 | — |
| M2sx92kljs420xb4f2…e5fa | No | 100 | 86.5¢ | $29 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 549 bets |
| omnibus-00c8ef0x00c8…9ccd | No | 97 | 31.0¢ | $28 | Losing−$8.32 per $100 · 15,729 bets |
| DorBlabla0xb42c…1209 | No | 75 | 7.0¢ | $22 | — |
| smith-dom0x8653…0d6b | No | 68 | 30.4¢ | $20 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 67 | 24.3¢ | $19 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 66 | 26.6¢ | $19 | — |
| grentub0xde9e…f615 | No | 65 | 30.6¢ | $19 | — |
| AAA11100x0c01…797d | No | 61 | 15.0¢ | $18 | Losing−$41.13 per $100 · 168 bets |
| 0x7c44…f27f | No | 61 | 56.3¢ | $18 | — |
| Penooooo0x615f…5f37 | No | 56 | 30.7¢ | $16 | — |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | No | 50 | 23.2¢ | $15 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 3,292 bets |
| PizzaBoys0x5b4e…2264 | No | 50 | 8.1¢ | $15 | — |
| Wiggly0x3a67…6095 | No | 45 | 10.4¢ | $13 | — |
| 0xfa4b…e34d | No | 43 | 23.2¢ | $13 | — |
| jefftko0xa797…a15e | No | 43 | 24.1¢ | $12 | — |
| 0xf9b5…1212 | No | 42 | 20.0¢ | $12 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 41 | 19.1¢ | $12 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| 2Sherlock0xbd81…006d | No | 41 | 8.9¢ | $12 | — |
| cloverpmq20xbb10…523d | No | 40 | 36.0¢ | $12 | — |
| sunnynotbunny0x4d02…2ad3 | No | 36 | 36.9¢ | $11 | — |
| IgnoredInMostRooms0x9ebc…35c2 | No | 33 | 31.2¢ | $10 | — |
| ogi2500x3373…3716 | No | 30 | 21.4¢ | $9 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 90 events · $5.92M in play