Market · 4 of 6 outcomes
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:59 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 2 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dublyash20xb94c…4c0c | Yes | 3,116 | 68.1¢ | $1.14K | — |
| 0xc42d…ca94 | Yes | 2,787 | 65.5¢ | $1.02K | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| No |
| 1,000 |
| 19.2¢ |
| $635 |
| New73 settled bets |
| poli.monaco0xf767…61df | No | 793 | 66.9¢ | $503 | — |
| 2Sherlock0xbd81…006d | No | 761 | 34.4¢ | $483 | — |
| 0x1b4c…1918 | No | 625 | 42.6¢ | $397 | — |
| K7fhp9vXm2Rtw4LbN8cGy3Ds6AoE0xa68b…c4b4 | No | 599 | 17.0¢ | $380 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 519 | 37.4¢ | $330 | Break-even−$0.13 per $100 · 191,746 bets |
| cym19690x68a7…f49a | Yes | 847 | 24.3¢ | $309 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 476 | 31.9¢ | $302 | — |
| Liechti00xb410…57eb | No | 445 | 45.9¢ | $283 | New63 settled bets |
| Rumpelstiltskin0xfb1b…a11d | No | 397 | 41.7¢ | $252 | — |
| arkd1ch0xc18d…fac7 | No | 270 | 76.2¢ | $171 | — |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | No | 237 | 21.0¢ | $151 | Proven+$6.06 per $100 · 622 bets |
| edge9990xab44…c994 | No | 219 | 41.9¢ | $139 | — |
| lamyk0xc004…c095 | No | 205 | 26.8¢ | $130 | — |
| 0xb1e7…5d74 | No | 200 | 29.2¢ | $127 | — |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 200 | 74.0¢ | $127 | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 29,989+ bets · updating |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | No | 193 | 45.4¢ | $122 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| Rishrash0x2626…2b65 | No | 184 | 58.9¢ | $117 | — |
| PARIS0x3f19…02fc | Yes | 300 | 73.2¢ | $110 | — |
| Olcan0x355e…a038 | No | 167 | 62.3¢ | $106 | Proven+$6.23 per $100 · 4,942 bets |
| fjlivy0x4620…2916 | Yes | 253 | 79.6¢ | $92 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 141 | 23.9¢ | $90 | Losing−$8.60 per $100 · 29,951+ bets · updating |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | No | 139 | 28.2¢ | $88 | Positive+$6.72 per $100 · 6,725 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 138 | 71.2¢ | $88 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| 0xc327…31f5 | Yes | 210 | 29.7¢ | $77 | — |
| TheDao0x26f8…a969 | Yes | 200 | 73.8¢ | $73 | — |
| social.tm0x7eaf…34d1 | Yes | 200 | 80.0¢ | $73 | — |
| lightsout9120x7e1d…4d41 | No | 100 | 68.0¢ | $63 | — |
| DorBlabla0xb42c…1209 | No | 89 | 28.8¢ | $57 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 85 | 35.4¢ | $54 | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| chessplayer0x4b8a…f4a4 | No | 78 | 32.8¢ | $49 | Losing−$1.15 per $100 · 12,688 bets |
| mizukih0x2658…0aa2 | No | 72 | 58.8¢ | $46 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 120 | 49.0¢ | $44 | — |
| hfv0xe102…71df | Yes | 120 | 91.0¢ | $44 | — |
| Agecanonix0xe068…c5ea | Yes | 100 | 78.5¢ | $37 | — |
| 0x5380…9592 | Yes | 100 | 54.0¢ | $37 | — |
| asd560xda65…e87e | Yes | 100 | 27.0¢ | $37 | — |
| folioquant0xeb52…67cc | Yes | 100 | 71.0¢ | $36 | Break-even−$0.55 per $100 · 533 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 53 | 62.2¢ | $34 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| FBRJQ0xad0d…9dda | No | 50 | 34.9¢ | $32 | — |
| sdssds0x813f…26ec | No | 47 | 73.0¢ | $30 | — |
| 0xeb8a…f706 | No | 44 | 34.9¢ | $28 | — |
| samywin0x7bb3…b97e | No | 43 | 48.0¢ | $27 | — |
| televisionloud0x6c1c…1ac2 | No | 41 | 75.4¢ | $26 | — |
| Peter.YF0x4079…7126 | No | 40 | 56.0¢ | $25 | — |
| Yiren0xf3ea…3039 | No | 39 | 77.7¢ | $25 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 66 | 44.7¢ | $24 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| 0xbeef…620e | No | 37 | 67.9¢ | $24 | — |
| nonSmile0x938b…37c8 | Yes | 63 | 79.7¢ | $23 | — |
| bechamel0xd322…8503 | Yes | 63 | 72.5¢ | $23 | — |
| holmman0xaa41…f0ac | No | 33 | 30.8¢ | $21 | — |
| Umaroth0xefde…783d | No | 31 | 61.0¢ | $20 | Break-even+$0.51 per $100 · 4,270 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 30 | 70.0¢ | $19 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| braindance0x7ff3…e007 | No | 30 | 44.0¢ | $19 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 50 | 24.0¢ | $18 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 50 | 66.0¢ | $18 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| wpovniweijfowjp0x1114…c330 | Yes | 48 | 59.0¢ | $18 | — |
| xMAI0x37a3…53e9 | No | 24 | 42.0¢ | $15 | — |
| athinkingmeat0xfb6e…1aee | Yes | 41 | 24.0¢ | $15 | — |
| DidYKH0xd16b…36c0 | No | 23 | 36.0¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x72d6…934b | Yes | 36 | 84.4¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x785b…5c65 | No | 20 | 52.0¢ | $13 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | No | 20 | 26.0¢ | $13 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| numberenchanter0xe193…466e | No | 20 | 45.0¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x1c37…a324 | No | 14 | 69.9¢ | $9 | — |
| sanlitou2026p10x7a8e…89d8 | Yes | 23 | 83.6¢ | $8 | — |
| totalost8010xda39…b4aa | Yes | 22 | 27.6¢ | $8 | — |
| yarw0x0ed7…a702 | No | 12 | 29.8¢ | $8 | — |
| Asipbajrami0x98f3…244d | No | 10 | 29.8¢ | $7 | — |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 10 | 39.0¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| predictdogepepewif0xf524…8178 | Yes | 17 | 72.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 11,425 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 10 | 29.8¢ | $6 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 15 | 31.7¢ | $6 | — |
| cocumberinocapucino0xa99f…d8a7 | Yes | 15 | 68.9¢ | $5 | — |
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting0x0275…b936 | Yes | 13 | 27.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xd2be…3989 | Yes | 12 | 84.5¢ | $4 | — |
| plyworke0020x6e63…07ae | Yes | 11 | 72.0¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.05 per $100 · 665 bets |
| politode0x5fa6…46ee | Yes | 10 | 26.8¢ | $4 | — |
| parameter10xae91…0f69 | Yes | 10 | 70.1¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x3244…f094 | Yes | 10 | 73.8¢ | $3 | — |
| troy840x14c0…ebdb | Yes | 8 | 77.0¢ | $3 | New85 settled bets |
| 0xa6d4…7505 | Yes | 8 | 63.2¢ | $3 | — |
| turbogigachad0x205c…1cdb | Yes | 6 | 68.9¢ | $2 | — |
| Tomerl0xdd59…e554 | Yes | 5 | 94.2¢ | $2 | — |
| aandriy0x5de8…f004 | Yes | 5 | 73.8¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x1b63…6dc0 | Yes | 4 | 24.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x20da…5765 | Yes | 4 | 24.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x367e…c81f | Yes | 4 | 24.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x5dea…f3a6 | Yes | 4 | 24.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x5e98…f54d | Yes | 4 | 24.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x6cf1…507c | Yes | 4 | 24.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x6d3e…17e0 | Yes | 4 | 24.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x6e10…1396 | Yes | 4 | 24.7¢ | $2 | — |
2 accounts bet both sides equally · 26 shares each side · Show
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Anthropic valuation & IPO · 90 events · $5.92M in play