Market · 1 of 6 outcomes
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 17:55 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xef97…ab2c | Yes | 3,259 | 95.7¢ | $3.13K | — |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate0x7365…64da | Yes | 1,674 | 79.7¢ | $1.61K | Proven+$12.92 per $100 · 1,201 bets |
| 0x633c…781f | Yes | 1,194 | 95.1¢ | $1.15K | — |
| Nostrafakus0x44a0…76e5 | Yes | 773 | 96.0¢ | $743 | — |
| 0xdamocles0xf5c4…0926 | Yes | 430 | 88.4¢ | $413 | Proven+$4.33 per $100 · 283 bets |
| Wwx0xb37f…fdcf | Yes | 200 | 98.0¢ | $192 | — |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | Yes | 165 | 94.7¢ | $159 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 770 bets |
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | No | 3,415 | 4.4¢ | $131 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 3,277 bets |
| robert-mukhametov0x0e6b…3a4c | Yes | 118 | 80.1¢ | $114 | — |
| libratus10x28b2…eb4f | Yes | 86 | 90.0¢ | $83 | — |
| parameter10xae91…0f69 | Yes | 82 | 83.7¢ | $79 | — |
| 0x8cc1…3ee7 | Yes | 63 | 76.3¢ | $61 | — |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 50 | 96.1¢ | $48 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 3,292 bets |
| poli.monaco0xf767…61df | No | 1,138 | 21.5¢ | $44 | — |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | No | 900 | 16.1¢ | $35 | Proven+$6.06 per $100 · 622 bets |
| chessplayer0x4b8a…f4a4 | No | 700 | 2.7¢ | $27 | Losing−$1.15 per $100 · 12,688 bets |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | Yes | 24 | 82.7¢ | $23 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| LonelyScissors0x460b…9894 | No | 450 | 0.1¢ | $17 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 14 | 98.0¢ | $13 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| maybebrian0x580a…a236 | No | 327 | 9.5¢ | $13 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 248 | 3.9¢ | $10 | Losing−$6.47 per $100 · 30,061+ bets · updating |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 9 | 92.0¢ | $9 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,860 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 220 | 5.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| merrynew0xa321…c3e2 | Yes | 8 | 88.4¢ | $8 | — |
| 0xf9b5…1212 | No | 159 | 5.3¢ | $6 | — |
| wildboar080xb260…9d59 | Yes | 6 | 90.4¢ | $5 | — |
| hackingthebettingmarkets0x78f3…9529 | Yes | 5 | 91.3¢ | $5 | — |
| OrtizJake0xb365…e611 | Yes | 5 | 96.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x9953…51f6 | Yes | 5 | 79.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x0bce…a6a8 | No | 117 | 4.4¢ | $5 | — |
| oyunadahil0xdba1…fdf8 | No | 70 | 4.5¢ | $3 | — |
| Bodytobody0xbd14…76b4 | No | 59 | 21.0¢ | $2 | — |
| jimmyTrade0x4a92…85e5 | No | 52 | 2.0¢ | $2 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 50 | 4.8¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| 0x637e…8cea | No | 50 | 2.4¢ | $2 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 49 | 17.7¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| Feniks090x2ac7…5db3 | Yes | 2 | 99.1¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x7c44…f27f | No | 30 | 20.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xd38f…bf78 | No | 30 | 7.0¢ | $1 | — |
| V4grant0xf5bb…bdb8 | No | 23 | 13.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x554d…c64b | No | 20 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x19e5…d7cd | No | 19 | 15.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x0731…4245 | No | 12 | 13.0¢ | $0 | — |
| ddd333aaa0x1dc1…5f5b | No | 10 | 3.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 4,786 bets |
| aaadda0xa840…87f7 | No | 10 | 3.7¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 4,316 bets |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | No | 5 | 21.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$7.11 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | No | 5 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 5 | 1.2¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | No | 0 | 5.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 88 events · $5.91M in play