October 31

Decided by

The market resolves "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise "No".§1

Not enough control

If control is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, it does not qualify and the market resolves "No".§7

Temporary action

Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption do not qualify on their own.§4

Claims only

An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran lost control does not qualify without actual control being established.§5

Negotiated transfer

A negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement qualifies only once actual control is established on the island.§6

Counted

Control of Kharg Island: Iran no longer holds primary governmental or military control, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed…§3

Source

Official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, plus a consensus of credible reporting.§8

Closes

Nov 1, 2026 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• December 31 6.5¢
• October 31 1.2¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.