Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:00 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MrNoItAll0x836f…906e | No | 56,961 | 98.3¢ | $56.3K | Positive+$1.90 per $100 · 499 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | No | 43,464 | 98.3¢ | $43K | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,711 bets |
| Dafu07150x9351…9e4d | No | 41,402 | 98.2¢ | $40.9K | Break-even+$0.90 per $100 · 285 bets |
| kevtp0xdc4b…dbca | No | 40,000 | 98.4¢ | $39.5K | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 346 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 37,100 | 98.2¢ | $36.7K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 770 bets |
| stupid220x8afa…adb6 | No | 30,256 | 98.3¢ | $29.9K | Break-even−$0.83 per $100 · 918 bets |
| TylerTurden0x69ea…15cd | No | 24,257 | 98.8¢ | $24K | Proven+$4.25 per $100 · 939 bets |
| 0x74b4…6bea | No | 11,392 | 99.0¢ | $11.3K | Proven+$2.37 per $100 · 411 bets |
| ChrisZyy-Real0x2481…9b79 | No | 11,111 | 98.4¢ | $11K | New59 settled bets |
| Alpheo0x7eaa…fd24 | No | 8,264 | 98.7¢ | $8.17K | New38 settled bets |
| AxiosReporter120x02e9…e4c9 | No | 5,500 | 98.5¢ | $5.44K | New30 settled bets |
| Talophex0xd0db…b117 | No | 5,350 | 98.2¢ | $5.29K | Proven+$2.05 per $100 · 1,929 bets |
| TheGreekTraderPM0x6770…45fb | No | 5,000 | 98.4¢ | $4.94K | Proven+$6.45 per $100 · 941 bets |
| HoldenBloodfeast0x8204…56ea | No | 5,000 | 97.8¢ | $4.94K | — |
| VortexTrading0x41c7…0df5 | No | 3,993 | 98.3¢ | $3.95K | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 5,224 bets |
| LA170xf6ea…0a00 | No | 3,500 | 98.2¢ | $3.46K | Break-even+$0.74 per $100 · 420 bets |
| charlatta0xb7b8…db31 | No | 3,000 | 98.6¢ | $2.97K | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 305 bets |
| VortexBet0x107f…bb8c | No | 2,800 | 98.2¢ | $2.77K | Break-even+$0.46 per $100 · 7,947 bets |
| nchgbhy0x57b0…76f4 | No | 2,800 | 98.2¢ | $2.77K | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 2,943 bets |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 2,028 | 98.6¢ | $2.01K | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | No | 2,000 | 98.8¢ | $1.98K | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 2,408 bets |
| ToadLord0xa3df…6f87 | Yes | 130,122 | 1.8¢ | $1.5K | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 1,212 | 98.7¢ | $1.2K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,860 bets |
| tl2000x2dc6…cf37 | No | 1,000 | 98.6¢ | $989 | New41 settled bets |
| Roro220x43f7…35e5 | No | 917 | 98.7¢ | $907 | — |
| biloute0x2ab0…95fb | No | 800 | 98.5¢ | $791 | — |
| Mold-Spore0x5e30…1ebd | Yes | 65,552 | 1.4¢ | $754 | — |
| kinderSman0xa6d9…fd2f | No | 700 | 98.4¢ | $692 | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 842 bets |
| sqsb0x3abd…2c6a | Yes | 55,122 | 1.6¢ | $634 | — |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 500 | 98.3¢ | $494 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 871 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 494 | 98.4¢ | $488 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Discombobulator70x029a…9cc0 | Yes | 40,000 | 1.5¢ | $460 | — |
| DorkiPorki0x9fc0…cb4b | No | 412 | 98.8¢ | $408 | — |
| ranksdog0xe192…7689 | No | 400 | 98.5¢ | $395 | — |
| Atsegine0xf44d…cc17 | No | 398 | 98.2¢ | $393 | — |
| adasol0x5297…7b99 | Yes | 20,213 | 1.2¢ | $232 | Positive+$1.62 per $100 · 486 bets |
| grustniyTanec0x5d14…f8bd | No | 206 | 98.8¢ | $204 | — |
| 0x0524…1479 | No | 200 | 98.8¢ | $198 | — |
| popoll0x8594…1a8d | No | 200 | 99.1¢ | $198 | — |
| overgame0xf6ad…4c12 | No | 200 | 98.5¢ | $198 | — |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | Yes | 13,039 | 1.4¢ | $150 | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| ukraine50xea72…833e | No | 151 | 98.2¢ | $149 | — |
| election51000xf516…6f6f | No | 150 | 97.9¢ | $148 | — |
| sdjungt0x009d…d73f | No | 143 | 98.2¢ | $141 | — |
| tuyjgbff0xddb0…eef8 | No | 141 | 99.1¢ | $140 | — |
| ballytiger0xca78…e67e | No | 137 | 97.7¢ | $135 | — |
| guyvguoli0x1161…56da | No | 134 | 98.9¢ | $133 | — |
| fghru0xba60…f8b4 | No | 131 | 99.1¢ | $130 | — |
| 0x5041…619a | No | 124 | 98.4¢ | $123 | — |
| mentionu0x74d8…5a80 | No | 120 | 98.2¢ | $119 | — |
| lionsever0x896d…67d6 | No | 120 | 98.2¢ | $119 | — |
| ShishioMakoto0x2ad7…a31f | Yes | 9,992 | 1.8¢ | $115 | — |
| drfchgu0xfcf5…efb2 | No | 113 | 99.0¢ | $112 | — |
| 866jyh0xf1fe…60b3 | No | 113 | 99.1¢ | $112 | — |
| accounttion0xb418…7389 | No | 110 | 98.2¢ | $109 | — |
| bcgrtd0xf558…e702 | No | 101 | 98.8¢ | $100 | — |
| 23dbfrxsw0x5611…c47e | No | 101 | 98.9¢ | $100 | — |
| hivemindilan0xf958…238c | Yes | 7,280 | 1.4¢ | $84 | — |
| 0xcc3e…0e8d | Yes | 6,476 | 1.7¢ | $74 | — |
| ManAreBrave0x58c6…d759 | Yes | 5,568 | 1.8¢ | $64 | — |
| alivedeer0xe0c5…913c | Yes | 1,000 | 1.3¢ | $12 | Losing−$12.71 per $100 · 427 bets |
| 0xef24…a44d | Yes | 900 | 1.2¢ | $10 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 642 | 1.4¢ | $7 | Positive+$7.11 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| ScienceDog0xc369…4e87 | Yes | 500 | 1.5¢ | $6 | — |
| potuzhniy13370xf3c4…77c7 | Yes | 388 | 1.8¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x9f2f…7c7a | Yes | 385 | 1.3¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 263 | 1.6¢ | $3 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| opp220xa377…a2cc | Yes | 250 | 1.2¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x1912…5dc7 | Yes | 100 | 1.2¢ | $1 | New61 settled bets |
| IvanChinchilla.HN0x2d1b…7acf | Yes | 59 | 1.7¢ | $1 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 59 | 1.5¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.47 per $100 · 30,061+ bets · updating |
| manochartino0xc20e…0a5e | Yes | 21 | 1.5¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 1,228 bets |
| bjprolo0x46b3…d3de | Yes | 10 | 1.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$503.23 per $100 · 49,800+ bets · updating |
| 0x6fbc…fa10 | Yes | 1 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.85 per $100 · 1,378 bets |
| jksdnf0xb6bf…c1c1 | Yes | 1 | 1.4¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 474 bets |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | Yes | 0 | 1.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$12.12 per $100 · 3,911 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.