October 31

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?”.

1. §1This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. §2Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
3. §3“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
4. §4Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
5. §5An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
6. §6If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
7. §7If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
8. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.