Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 15:07 UTC. Not financial advice.
Iranian Enriched Uranium Transfer to US · 3 events · $711K in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
15 proven traders are on Yes, 11 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e | No | 53,108 | 92.4¢ | $49.7K | Proven+$4.10 per $100 · 2,050 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | No | 45,590 | 88.0¢ | $42.6K | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,713 bets |
| SwissMiss0xdbad…9c95 | No | 16,416 | 60.0¢ | $15.3K | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 1,076 bets |
| 0xc3db…0f98 | No | 16,131 | 66.3¢ | $15.1K | Positive+$12.78 per $100 · 405 bets |
| denizz0xbaa2…2c73 | No | 14,912 | 82.1¢ | $13.9K | Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,271 bets |
| SirHarryOakes0x5685…62e2 | No | 9,455 | 80.6¢ | $8.84K | Proven+$5.58 per $100 · 297 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 6,000 | 93.0¢ | $5.61K | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 789 bets |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | No | 6,000 | 92.7¢ | $5.61K | Proven+$6.07 per $100 · 625 bets |
| justme0030xcb89…a2e8 | No | 4,430 | 83.3¢ | $4.14K | Losing−$1.29 per $100 · 343 bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | No | 3,877 | 52.4¢ | $3.62K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| aosdijf0x1963…9bfd | Yes | 54,340 | 6.8¢ | $3.53K | Positive+$11.72 per $100 · 577 bets |
| Giannis20260xe5b4…1e3e | No | 3,583 | 60.2¢ | $3.35K | Proven+$13.43 per $100 · 350 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 2,757 | 92.9¢ | $2.58K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| Monopoly_Money0x7ea7…79ac | No | 2,500 | 33.0¢ | $2.34K | Losing−$4.86 per $100 · 289 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 29,303 | 12.8¢ | $1.9K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,393 bets |
| EurekaaBet0x0e45…a2c4 | No | 1,900 | 63.0¢ | $1.78K | — |
| 0x2c26…a23c | No | 1,795 | 85.0¢ | $1.68K | — |
| JLucky0x5ad6…8407 | No | 1,575 | 55.0¢ | $1.47K | — |
| studmuffin69690xa8af…325e | No | 1,500 | 0.0¢ | $1.4K | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 2,247 bets |
| Niseko0x801d…d8e0 | Yes | 18,145 | 59.9¢ | $1.18K | Break-even−$0.14 per $100 · 2,052 bets |
| tradervader0xd7e6…4f99 | No | 1,075 | 89.8¢ | $1K | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 169 bets |
| neetbets0x4526…7a45 | No | 1,000 | 78.0¢ | $935 | Proven+$4.13 per $100 · 1,269 bets |
| Aragorn-II0xc9ad…79d0 | No | 900 | 74.8¢ | $842 | — |
| Odin.Valhal0xdd0d…17b6 | No | 900 | 88.0¢ | $842 | New79 settled bets |
| Roflan-ludoman0xfcf2…a469 | No | 875 | 86.0¢ | $818 | Positive+$1.50 per $100 · 1,478 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 807 | 92.0¢ | $754 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,945 bets |
| 0xfc2f…10c7 | No | 728 | 56.5¢ | $681 | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 1,149 bets |
| ZenBear0xa883…31fb | No | 700 | 82.9¢ | $655 | — |
| mindeirs0xe7cb…d447 | Yes | 10,000 | 20.0¢ | $650 | — |
| mini-man0xc902…cd14 | Yes | 9,892 | 48.6¢ | $643 | Positive+$12.78 per $100 · 225 bets |
| Quantollah0x0b9d…8201 | No | 659 | 66.6¢ | $617 | Positive+$4.59 per $100 · 287 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | No | 604 | 89.3¢ | $565 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,415 bets |
| drakelong0x12d5…f0eb | Yes | 8,301 | 49.6¢ | $540 | New75 settled bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | No | 571 | 62.0¢ | $534 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | Yes | 8,000 | 45.8¢ | $520 | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| soloropo0xc578…ecb2 | No | 546 | 55.0¢ | $510 | — |
| PhoenixWager0xb3d7…7504 | No | 491 | 61.1¢ | $459 | — |
| nvdb820x983f…95c3 | No | 474 | 58.0¢ | $443 | — |
| debased0x24c8…23e1 | Yes | 6,309 | 34.6¢ | $410 | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 7,227 bets |
| Bronzi0xc5fa…9795 | No | 408 | 85.7¢ | $382 | — |
| Metusalem0xa65c…32fb | No | 400 | 76.0¢ | $374 | — |
| DTHBTFH0x3a8b…d811 | No | 400 | 79.0¢ | $374 | — |
| dfbdxzd0x6aaf…7a58 | No | 400 | 79.0¢ | $374 | — |
| srfgrtgh0xdf02…4ee8 | No | 400 | 79.0¢ | $374 | — |
| nashen0xefab…b927 | No | 400 | 66.8¢ | $374 | — |
| ansatz0x5fa4…cd4e | No | 400 | 87.5¢ | $374 | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 320 bets |
| FishermansFiend0x3a59…6c6f | No | 379 | 89.5¢ | $354 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 177 bets |
| SilentHunter0xf5d1…67cc | No | 360 | 88.0¢ | $337 | — |
| 0x7bd2…c134 | No | 358 | 61.4¢ | $334 | — |
| OneBadBet0x84f8…0ff2 | No | 357 | 84.0¢ | $334 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 1,486 bets |
| AztecaBull0x1062…aea5 | No | 348 | 57.4¢ | $326 | New57 settled bets |
| semantics0x8dcf…5668 | No | 345 | 85.8¢ | $322 | Losing−$3.35 per $100 · 235 bets |
| RFSHTDH0x2f6c…6c94 | No | 330 | 79.0¢ | $309 | — |
| Ru3860x1d60…453d | No | 328 | 61.0¢ | $307 | Losing−$2.20 per $100 · 6,655 bets |
| SRGRDG0xe27f…c734 | No | 320 | 79.0¢ | $299 | — |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 4,511 | 15.9¢ | $293 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,062 bets |
| 0xa2c4…fdbb | No | 306 | 64.0¢ | $286 | — |
| 0x88bc…57d5 | No | 305 | 37.0¢ | $286 | — |
| SomerandomD0x2db9…33f1 | No | 300 | 93.0¢ | $281 | Proven+$5.06 per $100 · 100 bets |
| 0x2b67…b814 | Yes | 4,000 | 13.5¢ | $260 | Proven+$6.28 per $100 · 357 bets |
| Perypery0x0a7a…df1b | Yes | 3,291 | 7.1¢ | $214 | Positive+$11.86 per $100 · 5,341 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 3,234 | 28.7¢ | $210 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,058 bets |
| dontshowmyname0x0c97…1b68 | Yes | 3,000 | 9.4¢ | $195 | Proven+$2.33 per $100 · 1,857 bets |
| Hossein-m0xd726…b5c9 | Yes | 2,683 | 33.8¢ | $174 | — |
| Newshound0x5e73…6697 | Yes | 2,507 | 29.0¢ | $163 | Proven+$5.54 per $100 · 1,941 bets |
| DRHDTH0x31a2…733d | Yes | 2,500 | 21.0¢ | $163 | — |
| 0x9e5d…c928 | Yes | 2,500 | 20.0¢ | $163 | — |
| Eatpraylove0xc021…1fa8 | Yes | 2,000 | 38.5¢ | $130 | Proven+$2.20 per $100 · 1,792 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 1,933 | 6.9¢ | $126 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,268 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 1,840 | 8.0¢ | $120 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,278 bets |
| 0x3eb8…6dba | Yes | 1,729 | 7.0¢ | $112 | New3 settled bets |
| 0xb886…81b3 | Yes | 1,666 | 8.5¢ | $108 | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 1,518 bets |
| maybebrian0x580a…a236 | Yes | 1,599 | 27.1¢ | $104 | Proven+$18.08 per $100 · 117 bets |
| 0x9bbd…6e72 | Yes | 1,589 | 29.8¢ | $103 | — |
| paula0xa0xed86…6ee1 | Yes | 1,373 | 17.2¢ | $89 | New94 settled bets |
| avatar120x6ab8…ae32 | Yes | 1,304 | 23.0¢ | $85 | Losing−$1.37 per $100 · 265 bets |
| cocococococo0xbad2…5296 | Yes | 1,267 | 41.7¢ | $82 | Positive+$1.89 per $100 · 4,098 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | Yes | 1,200 | 7.0¢ | $78 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 575 bets |
| junkseer0x31a4…e6ea | Yes | 1,072 | 22.0¢ | $70 | — |
| ffvg0x2725…b435 | Yes | 1,042 | 48.0¢ | $68 | — |
| Karayama0x7887…7850 | Yes | 1,000 | 8.0¢ | $65 | — |
| podosome120xa2ff…6ab4 | Yes | 1,000 | 48.0¢ | $65 | — |
| BetterFish0xc412…592d | Yes | 1,000 | 24.0¢ | $65 | — |
| 8990h0xe047…cede | Yes | 1,000 | 47.0¢ | $65 | — |
| wavesinthesky0x07d1…8ffa | Yes | 825 | 22.3¢ | $54 | Losing−$5.32 per $100 · 4,481 bets |
| PutsOnPeace0x635d…5025 | Yes | 800 | 20.8¢ | $52 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 2,042 bets |
| benben270xb9ca…1e7a | Yes | 729 | 48.0¢ | $47 | — |
| Brokie0x1e1f…c855 | Yes | 700 | 66.0¢ | $46 | Proven+$2.07 per $100 · 1,049 bets |
| boomer-life0x19b8…cc2a | Yes | 614 | 65.2¢ | $40 | — |
| BTCGambler2470x31c5…ede4 | Yes | 600 | 32.0¢ | $39 | Proven+$9.51 per $100 · 524 bets |
| tradingdecs0x7fc6…7306 | Yes | 600 | 20.0¢ | $39 | Losing−$33.29 per $100 · 568 bets |
| apple-pi0xaf23…aa95 | Yes | 600 | 54.0¢ | $39 | Positive+$1.01 per $100 · 878 bets |
| MtnMark0x70ff…b65f | Yes | 530 | 9.9¢ | $34 | Positive+$40.45 per $100 · 239 bets |
| cambridgeisaac0xb51b…b4d9 | Yes | 521 | 38.4¢ | $34 | Proven+$2.33 per $100 · 2,456 bets |
| 0x076b…dbfa | Yes | 500 | 41.5¢ | $33 | — |
| XieGuangKun0x25dc…e33b | Yes | 500 | 60.0¢ | $33 | Proven+$9.37 per $100 · 1,200 bets |
| RATHMA40xf9ac…806e | Yes | 500 | 55.0¢ | $32 | — |
| sleepymonkey0xce4d…d0e2 | Yes | 500 | 41.3¢ | $32 | — |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | Yes | 500 | 20.2¢ | $32 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| 0x9caa…a237 | Yes | 481 | 52.0¢ | $31 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.