Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:33 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 2 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nope30500x6114…cff0 | No | 4,500 | 86.1¢ | $3.89K | Losing−$1.97 per $100 · 100 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | No | 4,080 | 67.6¢ | $3.53K | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| enrico-vasaio0xcc79…1c2a | No | 3,000 | 82.6¢ | $2.6K | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,143 bets |
| hopedieslast0x5739…5f1a | No | 1,805 | 83.2¢ | $1.56K | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 244 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | Yes | 10,885 | 21.8¢ | $1.47K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| tr10000x8a8b…375c | No | 1,600 | 86.0¢ | $1.38K | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 6,303 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 1,123 | 82.7¢ | $971 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | No | 994 | 72.0¢ | $859 | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 636 bets |
| eightpenguins0x3c59…1766 | Yes | 4,453 | 30.4¢ | $601 | Proven+$14.44 per $100 · 681 bets |
| PavtheGreat0x048a…9be4 | No | 655 | 79.0¢ | $567 | Losing−$1.76 per $100 · 325 bets |
| MonacoLover0xb8b4…1f6e | No | 575 | 86.0¢ | $498 | Losing−$9.91 per $100 · 139 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | No | 500 | 64.0¢ | $433 | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,713 bets |
| limetasx0x3239…8da3 | Yes | 2,400 | 23.7¢ | $324 | — |
| Frieren680x9e45…3662 | No | 353 | 85.0¢ | $305 | — |
| petruccci0x9370…9e88 | No | 300 | 81.0¢ | $260 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 269 | 85.1¢ | $232 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| browne0xbf96…9942 | No | 191 | 65.2¢ | $165 | Proven+$2.85 per $100 · 304 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 1,104 | 15.0¢ | $149 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 160 | 75.6¢ | $139 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| troawa0x0d95…d4be | No | 130 | 65.0¢ | $112 | — |
| Og440x4d2b…6275 | No | 121 | 73.0¢ | $104 | — |
| bakayo33 - 99340x343d…cd2e | No | 100 | 84.4¢ | $87 | Positive+$2.02 per $100 · 982 bets |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | No | 100 | 88.0¢ | $87 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 100 | 64.0¢ | $87 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| FishermansFiend0x3a59…6c6f | No | 90 | 87.2¢ | $78 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 177 bets |
| masca0x38df…47d1 | No | 62 | 75.0¢ | $54 | — |
| geonb0x7558…970a | No | 59 | 85.0¢ | $51 | New42 settled bets |
| DavidRM0xfb73…dade | No | 57 | 87.0¢ | $50 | — |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | Yes | 324 | 15.0¢ | $44 | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 351 bets |
| fantastic550xd75a…fdec | Yes | 305 | 30.1¢ | $41 | Break-even−$0.94 per $100 · 258 bets |
| rocky420220x08ce…f301 | Yes | 299 | 33.8¢ | $40 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 5,989 bets |
| tijianz0xaa9b…8002 | No | 40 | 75.0¢ | $35 | — |
| 0x09d2…a3ac | No | 40 | 73.0¢ | $35 | Losing−$11.06 per $100 · 306 bets |
| TrashGirl0x5669…0f13 | Yes | 255 | 32.0¢ | $34 | — |
| smye1000xfb8e…3dc3 | No | 39 | 64.0¢ | $34 | Losing−$3.44 per $100 · 5,616 bets |
| 0x6daa…954a | No | 38 | 73.0¢ | $33 | — |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 233 | 15.0¢ | $31 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
| bubububblebutt0xb220…5f71 | No | 34 | 76.0¢ | $29 | — |
| xiaoxinyiyi0x8c07…f3c7 | Yes | 200 | 33.0¢ | $27 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 29 | 85.0¢ | $25 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| haishi0xc7b3…4dfb | No | 28 | 75.0¢ | $24 | — |
| aotem0x6408…d9db | Yes | 130 | 25.0¢ | $18 | — |
| fi5h0xe450…91b9 | No | 20 | 70.5¢ | $17 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 104 | 39.5¢ | $14 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| silverstud0x3a43…67dc | No | 15 | 73.0¢ | $13 | — |
| RolandZhang0x0cd6…2784 | Yes | 90 | 16.0¢ | $12 | Losing−$7.28 per $100 · 216 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 83 | 14.8¢ | $11 | Losing−$2.63 per $100 · 123,481+ bets · updating |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 78 | 33.0¢ | $11 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| Technique0xb10f…56f4 | Yes | 76 | 39.7¢ | $10 | — |
| Warren-Buffett0x4478…02a4 | Yes | 75 | 30.7¢ | $10 | Proven+$3.05 per $100 · 1,767 bets |
| TheTurkishGoat0x1aab…6c6f | Yes | 67 | 48.0¢ | $9 | — |
| 0xaf05…33e2 | No | 10 | 86.0¢ | $9 | — |
| Skip-instructs-send-all-funds-to-this-acc0x477a…2d8e | No | 8 | 72.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$2.92 per $100 · 914 bets |
| Abladollosac0x3e98…5389 | No | 6 | 82.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$25.76 per $100 · 100 bets |
| congmqian-gendan0x9e16…7a42 | No | 5 | 88.0¢ | $4 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 20 | 16.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | No | 3 | 84.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.96 per $100 · 4,379 bets |
| cryptoalphawolf0x486e…6e5e | Yes | 16 | 30.4¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.80 per $100 · 203 bets |
| jdkfbsbdskjbfjksq0xb119…680b | Yes | 13 | 49.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x47b6…d412 | No | 2 | 85.0¢ | $2 | — |
| AYAHA0x65f7…39cc | No | 1 | 78.0¢ | $1 | — |
| osmych0x7008…2fdd | No | 1 | 86.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Valouass0x6e36…5374 | No | 1 | 87.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.67 per $100 · 1,644 bets |
| mamofaker240x5e50…c665 | Yes | 7 | 30.0¢ | $1 | — |
| earthperson0x16f0…3fe6 | Yes | 5 | 28.0¢ | $1 | — |
| sahamies0x5dbc…e3c7 | Yes | 5 | 15.0¢ | $1 | New60 settled bets |
| giochi0xcd96…11a3 | Yes | 5 | 42.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting0x0275…b936 | Yes | 5 | 21.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 14,400 bets |
| hn4bnjzt04ux0xaead…12e1 | Yes | 3 | 42.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x63e0…4ca5 | No | 0 | 55.0¢ | $0 | — |
| CainA0xedf2…931a | Yes | 3 | 37.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 79fsdfs0x2564…f258 | Yes | 2 | 27.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.85 per $100 · 2,461 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 1 | 13.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| hithitfar0xe53c…e569 | Yes | 1 | 44.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$7.52 per $100 · 3,961 bets |
| homaki0x2298…9f33 | Yes | 0 | 41.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xbada…d874 | Yes | 0 | 39.9¢ | $0 | — |
| dropmeplease0x758b…0a1c | Yes | 0 | 43.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PerformSleepState0xbdad…3ef7 | Yes | 0 | 32.6¢ | $0 | — |
| sirjhow010x764a…83d3 | Yes | 0 | 15.0¢ | $0 | — |
2 accounts bet both sides equally · 7 shares each side · Show
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Iranian Enriched Uranium Transfer to US · 3 events · $711K in play