Market · 9 of 12 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 20:27 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bipbipbop0xc4d5…87cf | No | 292 | 99.3¢ | $290 | Break-even+$0.77 per $100 · 6,838 bets |
| skold0r0xe089…ad3a | Yes | 13,403 | 1.7¢ | $60 | — |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | No | 41 | 97.9¢ | $40 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 18,243 bets |
| exponentially0xa2d7…e3b7 | No | 28 | 94.7¢ | $27 | — |
| ChunkyMonky0x8f66…b986 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.1¢ | $23 | — |
| bahn-cuon-baby0x5cdc…1f6b | No | 21 | 96.7¢ | $21 | — |
| ComradeCat0x60ec…8d4c | Yes | 4,086 | 1.1¢ | $18 | — |
| LinaBell🦊0x8eab…a56d | Yes | 4,000 | 2.0¢ | $18 | Break-even+$0.76 per $100 · 4,032 bets |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 3,978 | 3.8¢ | $18 | Positive+$1.35 per $100 · 7,262 bets |
| OsvaldoMarianao270xf939…43e1 | Yes | 3,770 | 2.7¢ | $17 | — |
| InsideR50x17f1…0528 | Yes | 3,557 | 1.1¢ | $16 | — |
| 0xd93d…bba2 | No | 16 | 99.7¢ | $16 | — |
| Poiuztrewq0x6df7…afb0 | Yes | 3,079 | 3.3¢ | $14 | — |
| Sugarina0x8288…5519 | Yes | 3,000 | 3.8¢ | $13 | — |
| txp111.0xaa7e…0332 | Yes | 3,000 | 0.6¢ | $13 | — |
| wakuwaku30x7db5…cf18 | Yes | 2,501 | 1.1¢ | $11 | — |
| LordYeah0xfd07…6bb7 | Yes | 2,500 | 0.1¢ | $11 | — |
| LazyJohnX0x2f85…05ff | No | 10 | 98.6¢ | $10 | — |
| baikong0xe19a…a07f | No | 10 | 97.2¢ | $10 | — |
| Kalkay110x6a1b…fbbd | Yes | 2,213 | 0.8¢ | $10 | — |
| ihrekunst0xc5e8…8354 | Yes | 2,100 | 1.3¢ | $9 | — |
| YuanX330x8a25…ba81 | No | 9 | 98.6¢ | $9 | — |
| cool.guide0x0e70…bf72 | Yes | 1,911 | 2.1¢ | $9 | — |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 1,850 | 5.8¢ | $8 | Losing−$1.09 per $100 · 2,218 bets |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 1,701 | 0.7¢ | $8 | Positive+$7.11 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0xC3DR1C4bE2A9f85c7D93e94b1Fa620C7359E819A0x724c…60ba | Yes | 1,695 | 3.6¢ | $8 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 1,497 | 1.0¢ | $7 | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| ElonJail0xb831…892b | Yes | 1,494 | 1.7¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x7500…567f | Yes | 1,306 | 1.4¢ | $6 | Positive+$7.54 per $100 · 1,726 bets |
| cryingbabydicer870x5e8e…8212 | No | 6 | 97.3¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 25,840 bets |
| MilkTeaa0xd3ce…b432 | Yes | 1,229 | 3.6¢ | $6 | — |
| Romeo0050x146d…17c7 | Yes | 1,222 | 0.4¢ | $5 | — |
| trader-93173b860x9317…5a5f | No | 5 | 98.3¢ | $5 | — |
| WanderingPanda0x74ff…be5b | No | 5 | 95.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xec35…259d | Yes | 1,056 | 0.9¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xcd0f…2154 | No | 5 | 95.2¢ | $5 | — |
| edgewarehouse0x7eeb…b6bd | Yes | 983 | 2.0¢ | $4 | — |
| dollarcat0xee60…9c89 | Yes | 914 | 1.1¢ | $4 | — |
| CashReviver0x9c6f…8b32 | No | 4 | 98.7¢ | $4 | — |
| Ruiziness0x306d…7a38 | Yes | 800 | 2.1¢ | $4 | — |
| MollyParkets0xf021…df56 | Yes | 791 | 4.5¢ | $4 | — |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 778 | 1.9¢ | $4 | — |
| Ecnanif0x2a79…e2af | Yes | 700 | 3.7¢ | $3 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 621 | 3.8¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 192,791 bets |
| polenk0x12e0…d6f8 | Yes | 528 | 5.2¢ | $2 | — |
| b3t4t35t0xab18…467d | Yes | 525 | 0.9¢ | $2 | — |
| sjoerdvdmack0xe53d…146c | Yes | 507 | 3.7¢ | $2 | — |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | Yes | 505 | 1.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$6.72 per $100 · 6,725 bets |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | Yes | 501 | 2.1¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| 212octopus0xbf8e…2f94 | Yes | 453 | 3.6¢ | $2 | — |
| mmmm123450xfa76…897e | Yes | 370 | 3.4¢ | $2 | — |
| Mei-ji0x2924…dcde | Yes | 364 | 8.9¢ | $2 | — |
| JoyL0x0862…9a02 | Yes | 350 | 0.9¢ | $2 | — |
| lovhotmail0x9435…68e3 | No | 1 | 94.7¢ | $1 | — |
| ganstta0xb049…e8d6 | No | 1 | 95.2¢ | $1 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 218 | 2.9¢ | $1 | Losing−$5.64 per $100 · 56,263+ bets · updating |
| rocky420060x85d5…bbf0 | Yes | 208 | 3.3¢ | $1 | — |
| Rokokoraccoon0x2a48…d8f8 | Yes | 200 | 0.4¢ | $1 | — |
| orifcontex0xa002…e840 | Yes | 200 | 0.9¢ | $1 | — |
| Cmp-Gamble-Trash0xf37b…4eda | Yes | 194 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| JustThink0x3958…938f | Yes | 188 | 1.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xfadb…e3dc | Yes | 180 | 1.9¢ | $1 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 176 | 0.7¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 44,379+ bets · updating |
| Destim0x9372…b267 | Yes | 150 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 68 | 4.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 8,496 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 10 | 1.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 89 overlapping windows · 8 events · $687K in play
Exactly one of this event's 12 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.