As written on Polymarket for “Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?”.
§1This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time.
§2Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
§3A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow.
§4An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
§5A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
§6The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
§7Surface-to-air missile strikes;
§8Small-arms fire;
§9Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 14:13 UTC. Not financial advice.
§10
§11Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
§12Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
§13Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
§14Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
§15Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
§16A military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.
§17The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.
§18Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date.
§19If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.
§20If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.
§21No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
§22The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.