October 20

Decided by

Yes if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time; otherwise No.§1

Intercepted munitions

Intercepted-before-impact munitions still qualify if the action qualifies; interception, landing spot and damage are not considered.§15

Directed at Moscow

An action is directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.§16

Conflicting reports

Where sources conflict, the market stays open until consensus or 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date.§18

Remaining conflict

If conflicting reports remain at the end of the third calendar day, the market resolves on the totality of information then available.§20

Counted

A qualifying action is an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike by Ukraine directed at Moscow.§3

Source

Official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.§22

Closes

Oct 21, 2026 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• October 21 52.5¢
• October 12 50.5¢
• October 18 49.5¢
• October 30 48.5¢
• October 23 48.0¢
• October 24 48.0¢
• October 17 47.5¢
• October 20 47.5¢
• October 22 47.5¢
• October 31 47.5¢
• October 25 47.0¢
• October 26 47.0¢

8 more outcomes in this event.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.