June 30, 2027

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?”.

1. §1This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
2. §2Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
3. §3Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
4. §4The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
5. §5For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
6. §6If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
7. §7Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives
8. §8Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.