Market · 3 of 17 outcomes
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 16:52 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ooops0xcb14…5358 | No | 372 | 70.0¢ | $322 | Break-even−$0.36 per $100 · 7,272 bets |
| Hyperlong0x014c…820c | No | 339 | 75.1¢ | $293 | Break-even |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| kittycat670x808a…ef3f | No | 315 | 81.3¢ | $272 | Positive+$3.33 per $100 · 392 bets |
| probability0x74f1…16a8 | No | 298 | 37.1¢ | $258 | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 6,639 bets |
| MrNoItAll0x836f…906e | No | 169 | 89.0¢ | $146 | Positive+$1.90 per $100 · 499 bets |
| yyyyyyy0x3143…81b1 | No | 146 | 82.7¢ | $127 | Losing−$4.31 per $100 · 679 bets |
| rkreddyzoomin0xb5b6…1fda | No | 140 | 72.5¢ | $121 | — |
| 0x0363…cac1 | No | 129 | 79.7¢ | $112 | — |
| Gaditima0x7e59…7b8b | No | 127 | 40.0¢ | $110 | Losing−$3.77 per $100 · 23,410 bets |
| macrosteaks0xefac…c9a1 | No | 100 | 86.5¢ | $86 | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 14,246 bets |
| Optimus-0xd5b9…e44e | Yes | 579 | 65.0¢ | $78 | Proven+$7.75 per $100 · 3,042 bets |
| m33zy0xcb7e…28dd | No | 76 | 78.5¢ | $66 | — |
| DualDelta0x1543…baaf | Yes | 375 | 30.3¢ | $51 | Proven+$9.93 per $100 · 326 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 343 | 12.5¢ | $46 | Losing−$2.61 per $100 · 123,902+ bets · updating |
| simulacrum30x2843…b3d2 | Yes | 250 | 58.4¢ | $34 | Losing−$4.40 per $100 · 2,572 bets |
| inno0x94d8…37e6 | Yes | 143 | 26.9¢ | $19 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 20 | 88.0¢ | $17 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 130,993 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 20 | 86.0¢ | $17 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| qwertyyyy0xfb5a…8008 | No | 20 | 69.5¢ | $17 | — |
| Musk50x1229…df38 | No | 16 | 85.0¢ | $14 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 494 bets |
| Raketa090x1790…6fd2 | No | 10 | 69.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$8.54 per $100 · 1,256 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 52 | 60.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| littlebird0x202b…971a | Yes | 50 | 21.7¢ | $7 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 50 | 17.6¢ | $7 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 49 | 27.0¢ | $7 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,059 bets |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | No | 7 | 89.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$8.42 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| Newshound0x5e73…6697 | Yes | 43 | 20.6¢ | $6 | Proven+$5.54 per $100 · 1,941 bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 41 | 11.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 38 | 22.0¢ | $5 | — |
| User960140x2b16…cbe4 | No | 6 | 87.5¢ | $5 | — |
| Cyjohny0x672a…04e8 | Yes | 36 | 56.1¢ | $5 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 34 | 41.2¢ | $5 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 5 | 75.0¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | Yes | 30 | 24.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$2.96 per $100 · 4,379 bets |
| deepsleep0x8394…8d66 | Yes | 30 | 18.0¢ | $4 | Proven+$2.26 per $100 · 368 bets |
| R18helloworld0xce31…19c4 | No | 5 | 87.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x8c07…2967 | Yes | 25 | 15.5¢ | $3 | — |
| banestow0x3080…337b | No | 4 | 72.1¢ | $3 | Losing−$20.74 per $100 · 495 bets |
| PocoMoco40x4eff…2f35 | No | 3 | 88.4¢ | $3 | — |
| Poloren0x59f3…cc36 | No | 3 | 88.4¢ | $3 | — |
| Arbalian0x7091…cc89 | Yes | 21 | 49.0¢ | $3 | — |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | No | 3 | 86.0¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,048 bets |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate0x7365…64da | Yes | 19 | 28.8¢ | $3 | Proven+$13.02 per $100 · 1,204 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 15 | 28.3¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,947 bets |
| 0x7fd4…765d | Yes | 15 | 13.0¢ | $2 | — |
| isnE4ZgjkP3nxh0xdb9c…483d | Yes | 15 | 13.5¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | 10 | 12.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$33.48 per $100 · 563 bets |
| dthkuy0x61b9…20a3 | Yes | 10 | 15.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x58cc…c67c | Yes | 10 | 21.0¢ | $1 | — |
| winexecutescale0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | 10 | 21.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xd10a…b9cd | No | 1 | 71.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | 7 | 30.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| JPuFor0xce54…70fc | No | 1 | 87.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xb253…2d38 | No | 1 | 93.3¢ | $1 | — |
| JustAnotherTechEnthusiast0xa1c4…b9b5 | Yes | 6 | 81.6¢ | $1 | — |
| miroshsa0x982c…0d6e | Yes | 6 | 70.8¢ | $1 | — |
| Angusjo0xc430…ab65 | Yes | 6 | 21.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Merrick7240x8223…c752 | Yes | 5 | 15.0¢ | $1 | — |
| werpiu0x1b47…fdfb | Yes | 5 | 19.6¢ | $1 | — |
| Daniel6780x0069…2f92 | Yes | 4 | 46.0¢ | $1 | — |
| flexer780x9422…f273 | No | 0 | 69.0¢ | $0 | — |
| jdkfbsbdskjbfjksq0xb119…680b | Yes | 1 | 34.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | Yes | 1 | 17.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Michael23400x47ee…ba80 | Yes | 1 | 15.0¢ | $0 | — |
| SamAltmaen0xc913…f6d8 | Yes | 1 | 12.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 51dgfd0x2baf…70ad | Yes | 0 | 25.1¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.53 per $100 · 229 bets |
| no1biao0xdf08…cf97 | Yes | 0 | 30.5¢ | $0 | — |
| Emily4790x6460…52d2 | Yes | 0 | 15.0¢ | $0 | — |
| sdfsdfsdfsdf20x321e…9292 | Yes | 0 | 16.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.75 per $100 · 16,321 bets |
| ilyck0xfdf3…68ae | Yes | 0 | 25.2¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
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