4.0%

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?”.

1. §1The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
2. §2The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
3. §3This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
4. §4This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued.
5. §5If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
6. §6The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market.
7. §7If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).