Market · 2 of 15 outcomes
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 08:35 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 15 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ratehikes0xa309…4cf2 | Yes | 4,774 | 18.8¢ | $1.19K | New49 settled bets |
| CDAP10xe033…40a5 | Yes | 3,785 | 2.9¢ | $940 | New40 settled bets |
| akimbogod0x6056…c27c | Yes | 2,968 | 36.8¢ | $737 | Proven+$8.97 per $100 · 148 bets |
| podairpod0x2ed8…93d4 | Yes | 1,572 | 31.5¢ | $391 | Proven+$6.95 per $100 · 772 bets |
| dgprnta0xf975…4ec2 | Yes | 1,357 | 4.8¢ | $337 | — |
| Deadheadbucky0x68d9…00ed | Yes | 1,064 | 35.8¢ | $264 | — |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | Yes | 1,017 | 31.6¢ | $253 | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| DancewithRisk0xb0fc…ce0b | Yes | 982 | 33.0¢ | $244 | — |
| Ume-Chang0xae89…90b8 | Yes | 745 | 5.7¢ | $185 | Losing−$2.13 per $100 · 8,308 bets |
| 0x1308…45c6 | No | 234 | 58.4¢ | $176 | — |
| JotaFoward0xe99f…7ce9 | Yes | 523 | 24.4¢ | $130 | — |
| Sunbreon0xf26c…ebe5 | Yes | 516 | 38.8¢ | $128 | — |
| hippoka0xdd9c…31a0 | Yes | 500 | 8.2¢ | $124 | New77 settled bets |
| 0x1d36…2a3b | Yes | 407 | 5.5¢ | $101 | — |
| OkaneKasegu0x5d74…ee45 | Yes | 379 | 6.7¢ | $94 | Positive+$1.35 per $100 · 710 bets |
| GioYoGentle0x7b5c…25c3 | Yes | 355 | 8.4¢ | $88 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 332 | 0.0¢ | $83 | Positive+$3.79 per $100 · 102,087 bets |
| HospitalHippo0xaafe…6edb | Yes | 326 | 20.6¢ | $81 | — |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | No | 98 | 59.7¢ | $74 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| melonmanm0x0787…0ca3 | No | 89 | 63.9¢ | $67 | Proven+$6.89 per $100 · 1,588 bets |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | No | 88 | 72.3¢ | $66 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 87 | 78.2¢ | $65 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,320 bets |
| 0x02a9…c4c8 | Yes | 255 | 12.5¢ | $63 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 251 | 0.3¢ | $62 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| 88mnm880x3b1a…4221 | No | 82 | 94.4¢ | $62 | Break-even+$0.95 per $100 · 8,246 bets |
| 0x796e…3426 | Yes | 225 | 2.2¢ | $56 | — |
| acc420200xeab6…d4c6 | Yes | 211 | 6.9¢ | $52 | — |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | Yes | 207 | 15.3¢ | $52 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 167 | 5.2¢ | $42 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,079 bets |
| drde0xd0a0…2760 | Yes | 155 | 29.5¢ | $39 | — |
| 0x06d8…9446 | Yes | 150 | 5.1¢ | $37 | — |
| tradingwhat0x4d5e…a877 | Yes | 115 | 6.8¢ | $29 | — |
| aHjCz0x2b59…9db6 | Yes | 109 | 32.2¢ | $27 | Positive+$3.88 per $100 · 57,792+ bets · updating |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 36 | 90.8¢ | $27 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,913 bets |
| LBZbot20xdb6c…ee14 | Yes | 100 | 6.6¢ | $25 | — |
| fed260xaf45…ec7d | Yes | 99 | 7.9¢ | $25 | New30 settled bets |
| wozaitaibei0xdad7…005a | Yes | 95 | 22.2¢ | $24 | — |
| daroghi0xf0b0…8cab | No | 30 | 96.1¢ | $23 | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 98,025+ bets · updating |
| wtfsss0x472c…9c3d | Yes | 88 | 3.7¢ | $22 | — |
| tiredShip0x2aae…a80c | No | 28 | 95.2¢ | $21 | — |
| art3698640xbc14…ea95 | Yes | 79 | 23.3¢ | $20 | — |
| 0xd0d9…30f2 | Yes | 75 | 15.9¢ | $19 | — |
| FlashTradeOracleTester0xa912…297f | No | 23 | 99.1¢ | $17 | — |
| 0x96e2…1690 | Yes | 66 | 25.7¢ | $16 | — |
| coolquail0x00d2…fb50 | Yes | 61 | 0.3¢ | $15 | — |
| zeitfi-vault-v20x6ae0…b747 | Yes | 61 | 10.2¢ | $15 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 60 | 9.0¢ | $15 | Break-even−$0.76 per $100 · 88,011+ bets · updating |
| 0xd8d3…ff72 | Yes | 58 | 10.6¢ | $14 | — |
| human.bean0x39fd…849e | Yes | 57 | 3.6¢ | $14 | — |
| Ararat3070x50f2…f52c | No | 18 | 94.3¢ | $14 | — |
| tiancs0x8301…3bdc | Yes | 50 | 1.0¢ | $12 | — |
| liuruijin0x88b3…bad4 | Yes | 50 | 22.8¢ | $12 | — |
| wokerjoesleeper0x63d4…a2f1 | Yes | 46 | 0.0¢ | $11 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 44,557 bets |
| 0x74fc…492c | No | 15 | 66.0¢ | $11 | — |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 45 | 26.0¢ | $11 | — |
| Specialist2003030xfad9…f138 | Yes | 41 | 29.3¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x1086…6b09 | No | 13 | 68.3¢ | $10 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 40 | 6.7¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x000c…bcf3 | Yes | 40 | 25.3¢ | $10 | Losing−$7.39 per $100 · 409 bets |
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting0x0275…b936 | Yes | 38 | 8.2¢ | $9 | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 14,475 bets |
| howesr19700x4097…88f2 | Yes | 34 | 8.0¢ | $8 | — |
| 0xf528…7e5b | No | 11 | 76.6¢ | $8 | — |
| BornAgain260x978e…80bc | Yes | 33 | 38.3¢ | $8 | — |
| 0xf278…a69d | Yes | 32 | 11.0¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x61f2…e77a | No | 10 | 75.5¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.88 per $100 · 1,656 bets |
| 0x603d…26fb | No | 10 | 90.0¢ | $8 | — |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 9 | 98.5¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.06 per $100 · 50,803 bets |
| immanuelcan0x04b9…79e0 | No | 9 | 68.0¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.13 per $100 · 2,550 bets |
| 0x1bf5…ff5e | No | 5 | 76.2¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xfa01…800a | No | 5 | 75.7¢ | $4 | — |
| 15rob0x2afd…deb4 | No | 4 | 66.6¢ | $3 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 9,825 bets |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | No | 4 | 86.8¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.98 per $100 · 4,402 bets |
| Apart-Car-Shift0x6d73…bfda | No | 3 | 96.4¢ | $2 | — |
| products0x8575…87fe | No | 3 | 87.5¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.86 per $100 · 10,069 bets |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | No | 3 | 77.5¢ | $2 | Positive+$5.54 per $100 · 87,634 bets |
| Tanker3370xad86…5038 | No | 3 | 69.7¢ | $2 | — |
| adjust.erase.have0xe141…93a0 | No | 3 | 96.3¢ | $2 | — |
| summer90570x009f…a4a9 | No | 2 | 89.6¢ | $2 | — |
| vivid010x0133…f5a1 | No | 2 | 91.2¢ | $2 | — |
| Dunedesign0x8da7…6572 | No | 2 | 96.6¢ | $2 | — |
| insect-flush-coyote0xa358…b730 | No | 2 | 89.6¢ | $2 | — |
| oval71120xd196…e037 | No | 2 | 95.4¢ | $2 | — |
| rated0xa3ad…6866 | No | 2 | 97.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 18,156 bets |
| 0x2059…f13b | No | 1 | 89.6¢ | $1 | Losing−$3.93 per $100 · 998 bets |
| MHD19970xfad4…a7f1 | No | 1 | 91.4¢ | $1 | — |
| tuskor0x2a5b…8e74 | No | 1 | 91.8¢ | $1 | Losing−$5.11 per $100 · 189 bets |
| nominee0790x0bc9…12aa | No | 1 | 95.6¢ | $1 | — |
| whatSize0x1891…c4a5 | No | 1 | 91.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Method-Skill0x2465…433e | No | 1 | 91.2¢ | $1 | — |
| order-catalog0x2615…f717 | No | 1 | 91.3¢ | $1 | — |
| allow8550x4133…9046 | No | 1 | 95.6¢ | $1 | — |
| unablekq500x434d…7a20 | No | 1 | 89.6¢ | $1 | — |
| Avoid-Rose-Fee0x5306…6729 | No | 1 | 96.6¢ | $1 | — |
| Taste-Cube-Entire0x571d…5f96 | No | 1 | 91.0¢ | $1 | — |
| hoverRefuse0x61bb…b50a | No | 1 | 95.6¢ | $1 | — |
| concertac110x73b7…01bd | No | 1 | 95.6¢ | $1 | — |
| videoHoliday0x7ecd…ffe6 | No | 1 | 89.6¢ | $1 | — |
| nerve45530x8f8b…7b53 | No | 1 | 96.6¢ | $1 | — |
| Rotatede730x9aa9…2b87 | No | 1 | 89.6¢ | $1 | — |
| smooth.dry.air0x9c43…a02b | No | 1 | 91.0¢ | $1 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.