Market
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 14:49 UTC. Not financial advice.
| If you bet | You pay | Moves the price |
|---|---|---|
| $1,000 | 6.9¢ | +1.4 pts |
| $10,000 | 22.5¢ | +17.0 pts |
| $100,000 | 67.1¢ | +61.6 pts |
| $500,000 | 80.9¢ | Not enough on offer |
Right now you can buy Yes at and sell at 5¢.
About $1.3K can be bought and $2.01K sold within 2¢ of today's price, so bigger bets move the price.
Measured from 5.5¢, the middle of buy and sell. As of 14:45 UTC.