March 31, 2027

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?”.

1. §1This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
2. §2The building will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
3. §3Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
4. §4For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
5. §5If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
6. §6Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances
7. §7Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory
8. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.