As written on Polymarket for “Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?”.
§1This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
§2The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
§3Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
§4For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
§5If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
§6Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances
§7Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 14:14 UTC. Not financial advice.
§8
§9If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map.
§10However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify.
§11Actual control must be established.
§12Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
§13Train Station Location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png