Market · 3 of 3 outcomes
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 19:32 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
9 proven traders are on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gladius70xc932…e6a5 | No | 16,589 | 66.9¢ | $14.3K | Proven+$6.20 per $100 · 264 bets |
| KrackenSruster0xd44e…67e2 | No | 11,132 | 67.7¢ | $9.63K | Proven+$10.52 per $100 · 893 bets |
| JoeBlack010x9ca1…13b5 | No | 6,541 | 66.6¢ | $5.66K | Proven+$2.66 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| GaioMario0x94d0…9e65 | No | 6,398 | 75.3¢ | $5.53K | — |
| CompulsiveGambler0xe0f1…c4bd | No | 4,726 | 68.5¢ | $4.09K | Proven+$5.10 per $100 · 1,724 bets |
| DoubleAgentKrasnov0x6d8c…b79a | No | 3,521 | 73.8¢ | $3.05K | Proven+$14.14 per $100 · 210 bets |
| DumplingBMF0x8f69…7df1 | Yes | 21,050 | 34.9¢ | $2.84K | Proven+$2.52 per $100 · 3,946 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 2,205 | 64.1¢ | $1.91K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,393 bets |
| vakulchik0x741d…e35c | No | 2,017 | 74.4¢ | $1.74K | — |
| CryptoGo0x129d…7d2d | Yes | 8,832 | 28.2¢ | $1.19K | Positive+$3.41 per $100 · 177 bets |
| 0x3e20x3e23…8579 | No | 1,200 | 79.0¢ | $1.04K | — |
| 1nvoker10x748a…3c56 | No | 1,158 | 66.4¢ | $1K | Break-even+$0.58 per $100 · 931 bets |
| 123erty0xc93c…52f1 | Yes | 6,969 | 28.2¢ | $941 | Proven+$3.28 per $100 · 385 bets |
| Napoleon19880xf167…19a1 | No | 919 | 78.8¢ | $795 | — |
| siick0xf9b7…60a4 | Yes | 5,259 | 27.0¢ | $710 | Proven+$3.60 per $100 · 1,967 bets |
| cooldisplayname0x610a…cb39 | No | 800 | 62.5¢ | $692 | New72 settled bets |
| serferer0xdc70…cc56 | No | 797 | 69.9¢ | $690 | — |
| czvxks0x081d…f3f4 | No | 739 | 65.1¢ | $639 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 692 | 71.1¢ | $599 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,956 bets |
| Dafri2202860x2908…91f5 | No | 658 | 76.0¢ | $569 | New22 settled bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | No | 650 | 69.2¢ | $562 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 3,931 | 29.9¢ | $531 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,293 bets |
| abdoohl0x8e4f…4594 | Yes | 3,872 | 34.3¢ | $523 | — |
| giroumcnahets0xc105…9dd9 | No | 600 | 76.0¢ | $519 | — |
| trader-c52fead80xc52f…0981 | No | 550 | 65.3¢ | $476 | — |
| Den-040x6fca…7477 | No | 500 | 64.0¢ | $432 | — |
| tradervader0xd7e6…4f99 | No | 490 | 80.6¢ | $424 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 169 bets |
| Dragondoublehead0x0c20…6291 | No | 489 | 64.0¢ | $423 | — |
| jsjr0x12bf…ddaf | Yes | 3,026 | 23.5¢ | $409 | Losing−$1.74 per $100 · 688 bets |
| Dondigidin0x07b9…0fbb | No | 471 | 75.0¢ | $408 | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 991 bets |
| Motosha0x124f…0dea | No | 408 | 66.8¢ | $353 | — |
| kanhaoleaha0xd98a…4db0 | No | 400 | 63.0¢ | $346 | — |
| AlexZA30x5c5b…1a6d | No | 395 | 68.4¢ | $342 | Positive+$4.62 per $100 · 181 bets |
| 0xaa74…8add | No | 394 | 63.4¢ | $341 | — |
| 0x4c96…36c9 | No | 392 | 79.0¢ | $339 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 392 | 67.3¢ | $339 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Coldonn1010xe6fd…8bc3 | No | 380 | 72.0¢ | $329 | — |
| saikederiku0x7a8d…262f | No | 336 | 79.0¢ | $290 | — |
| shred77770x43cc…9211 | No | 300 | 70.0¢ | $260 | Proven+$7.41 per $100 · 237 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 300 | 71.8¢ | $260 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| AskGloria0x90b7…0b0d | No | 300 | 76.0¢ | $259 | — |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 300 | 80.5¢ | $259 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| dimianmaja0xbeda…d080 | Yes | 1,665 | 30.0¢ | $225 | — |
| Kapustus0x6cbd…e951 | No | 257 | 76.5¢ | $222 | — |
| johanshpoka0x5fd3…9334 | No | 250 | 74.0¢ | $216 | — |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 250 | 74.4¢ | $216 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| 0xd113…09c6 | No | 232 | 87.0¢ | $201 | — |
| Bazovi4ek0xa810…4096 | Yes | 1,334 | 37.6¢ | $180 | — |
| 1014560x8de0…7f22 | Yes | 1,323 | 26.0¢ | $179 | Proven+$14.71 per $100 · 249 bets |
| radek440x153b…65d8 | Yes | 1,293 | 31.9¢ | $175 | Losing−$2.78 per $100 · 371 bets |
| ourdemocracy20xbdcb…e811 | No | 200 | 78.0¢ | $173 | Break-even+$0.15 per $100 · 569 bets |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | No | 196 | 67.5¢ | $170 | Break-even+$0.40 per $100 · 627 bets |
| bohdancio0xab79…f2ed | No | 174 | 74.6¢ | $151 | — |
| 0xafa7…6e67 | No | 158 | 68.9¢ | $137 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 994 | 20.8¢ | $134 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,099 bets |
| BenjaminNetAnYahoo0xfb46…f68b | No | 148 | 81.0¢ | $128 | — |
| Porx0xa0bc…d428 | Yes | 909 | 31.9¢ | $123 | Proven+$7.58 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| 0xd11c…0d06 | No | 139 | 68.7¢ | $120 | — |
| webot-ai0xc2a5…0ce9 | No | 102 | 59.0¢ | $88 | New25 settled bets |
| perviy0x50d7…dbca | Yes | 650 | 33.0¢ | $88 | — |
| -BOB-0xb084…b64f | Yes | 642 | 31.2¢ | $87 | — |
| rontro280x0330…eb8f | No | 100 | 74.0¢ | $87 | — |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 100 | 69.0¢ | $87 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| edza0x9917…12f4 | No | 100 | 67.0¢ | $86 | — |
| 0x066f…2e56 | Yes | 641 | 29.9¢ | $86 | — |
| negator5120x1df2…cdf4 | No | 100 | 68.0¢ | $86 | — |
| codafast0x77e3…d0bf | Yes | 587 | 38.1¢ | $79 | — |
| slavikbalenciaga0xb9a1…f485 | Yes | 586 | 43.0¢ | $79 | — |
| zerowar0xd822…8c9b | Yes | 542 | 32.7¢ | $73 | — |
| betpot0x3b76…76a2 | Yes | 494 | 32.9¢ | $67 | — |
| Skip-instructs-send-all-funds-to-this-acc0x477a…2d8e | Yes | 436 | 24.0¢ | $59 | Losing−$2.92 per $100 · 914 bets |
| hhdv0x7312…9356 | Yes | 382 | 44.0¢ | $52 | — |
| leCommissaire0x9238…b73e | Yes | 356 | 20.8¢ | $48 | Proven+$12.28 per $100 · 3,035 bets |
| StalinZ0x050e…8a7c | Yes | 356 | 39.5¢ | $48 | — |
| 777porto0x4181…e4fb | Yes | 333 | 29.0¢ | $45 | — |
| Rr550xb8ad…ff58 | Yes | 300 | 33.0¢ | $40 | — |
| baklavam0x4749…0ed3 | Yes | 298 | 23.3¢ | $40 | — |
| catbayun0xd608…2e36 | Yes | 291 | 38.1¢ | $39 | — |
| randomWalkingShrimp0x30d1…4525 | Yes | 250 | 40.6¢ | $34 | Proven+$8.22 per $100 · 1,875 bets |
| 0xf567…1402 | Yes | 241 | 29.0¢ | $33 | — |
| Voltoger0xfffe…4e6c | Yes | 238 | 31.1¢ | $32 | — |
| bakayo33 - 99340x343d…cd2e | Yes | 205 | 33.5¢ | $28 | Positive+$2.02 per $100 · 982 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 204 | 38.0¢ | $28 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,059 bets |
| ZOV220x0e49…fc23 | Yes | 203 | 38.6¢ | $27 | — |
| BetsAhead0x0002…56c9 | Yes | 197 | 23.8¢ | $27 | — |
| spartacchempion0x806f…418e | Yes | 171 | 33.6¢ | $23 | — |
| rabbyusersuper0xac07…2d0d | Yes | 171 | 39.0¢ | $23 | — |
| mr.Putin0x4367…1933 | Yes | 165 | 42.7¢ | $22 | — |
| zslon0x2d7d…8a52 | Yes | 151 | 43.9¢ | $20 | — |
| 0x0900…a11f | Yes | 151 | 33.2¢ | $20 | — |
| 5.6sol0x5709…22c3 | Yes | 150 | 29.9¢ | $20 | — |
| 0x9495…468f | Yes | 145 | 19.0¢ | $20 | Losing−$4.13 per $100 · 12,873 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 141 | 23.0¢ | $19 | Losing−$2.56 per $100 · 124,139 bets |
| domk0x2d19…52c6 | Yes | 130 | 40.3¢ | $18 | — |
| chilllguy0x7801…7e6c | Yes | 120 | 34.7¢ | $16 | — |
| asterley0xe762…064b | Yes | 105 | 22.1¢ | $14 | — |
| cx0x0x5e3d…ff92 | Yes | 103 | 32.2¢ | $14 | — |
| Rane20220x2e26…336c | Yes | 100 | 25.0¢ | $14 | — |
| 4me0x3d9b…1542 | Yes | 100 | 25.0¢ | $14 | — |
| mehanizator0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | 100 | 37.0¢ | $14 | Positive+$3.84 per $100 · 8,686 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.