Moshe Arbel

Decided by

The market resolves to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Interior in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections.§1

Caretaker excluded

Any interim or caretaker Minister of Interior does not count toward resolution.§3

No later replacements

Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements do not affect resolution.§4

Successor position

The individual must be appointed "Minister of Interior" or to the position confirmed as its successor, keeping its primary responsibilities, by consensus of…§5

Multiple successors

If the primary responsibilities go to multiple successor positions, the market resolves to the individual in the successor position whose full name comes…§7

Counted

The individual's ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a confidence vote in that government or a later vote approving their appointment.§2

Source

Official information from the Government of Israel is the primary source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.§9

Closes

Mar 1, 2027 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

How these markets fit together

Exactly one of this event's 18 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to 133¢ right now.