Michel Barnier

Decided by

The market resolves "Yes" if the listed individual is on the official first-round candidate list for the 2027 French presidential election.§3

No list published

If no candidate list is published before the election, the market resolves based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot.§5

No election by deadline

If no list is published and the election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves "No".§6

Otherwise "No"

Otherwise, the market resolves to "No".§4

Counted

Inclusion of the listed individual on the official candidate list for the first round of the election.§3

Source

The official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.§7

Closes

Jul 1, 2027 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.

• Jean-Luc Mélenchon 94.0¢
• Marine Le Pen 92.0¢
• Édouard Philippe 89.5¢
• Nathalie Arthaud 86.5¢
• Raphaël Glucksmann 82.0¢
• Fabien Roussel 79.5¢
• Éric Zemmour 78.5¢
• David Lisnard 76.0¢
• Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 65.5¢
• Bruno Retailleau 58.5¢
• Marine Tondelier 31.0¢
• Dominique de Villepin 30.5¢

34 more outcomes in this event.