Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:12 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Musk50x1229…df38 | Yes | 1,113 | 96.9¢ | $1.08K | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 492 bets |
| only-no0xd520…3040 | Yes | 500 | 94.2¢ | $484 | — |
| WeJustBettin0xf6c6…7d80 | Yes | 287 | 94.1¢ | $278 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 735 bets |
| chessplayer0x4b8a…f4a4 | Yes | 200 | 94.0¢ | $194 | Losing−$1.15 per $100 · 12,688 bets |
| TheOne7770x2b62…438c | Yes | 157 | 96.5¢ | $152 | — |
| ragalita0xd56c…12b4 | Yes | 100 | 96.2¢ | $97 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
These 2 outcomes add up to 98.8¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
Brazil Presidential Runoff · Bahia · 1 event · $2.61K in play