Market · 2 of 2 outcomes

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 19:22 UTC. Not financial advice.

Market · 2 of 2 outcomes

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Chance of Yes

None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.

Proven traders, money on each side

6 proven traders are on Yes, 9 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.

Top holders after netting each trader's Yes shares against their No shares
Trader	Side	Shares	Bought at	Worth now	Record
Renan20300x88c4…129a	No	382,318	79.1¢	$335K	Proven+$11.67 per $100 · 470 bets
657657570x2974…9c23	No	227,008	70.8¢	$199K	Proven

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.

Decided by: The market resolves according to the listed candidate that wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.§2
Second round: The market includes any potential second round.§3
Result unknown: If the result isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other".§4
Ambiguity: If ambiguous, the market resolves based solely on official results reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the TSE.§6
Counted: The listed candidate that wins the election, including any potential second round.§2
Source: A consensus of credible reporting, or if ambiguous, official results from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE).§5
Closes: Oct 5, 2026 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 19:22 UTC. Not financial advice.