Market · 1 of 2 outcomes

Flávio Bolsonaro

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 14:36 UTC. Not financial advice.

Market · 1 of 2 outcomes

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Chance of Yes

None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.

Proven traders, money on each side

11 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.

Top holders after netting each trader's Yes shares against their No shares
Trader	Side	Shares	Bought at	Worth now	Record
Renan20300x88c4…129a	Yes	549,632	64.1¢	$483K	Proven+$11.67 per $100 · 470 bets
SuperavitFiscal0xeb49…693e	Yes	436,502	52.5¢	$384K

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.

Decided by: The market resolves according to the listed candidate that wins the election.§2
Unknown by deadline: If the result isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other".§4
Ambiguous result: If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on official results reported by the TSE.§6
Second round: The market includes any potential second round.§3
Counted: The election, including any potential second round.§3
Source: A consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, official results from the Brazilian government's Superior Electoral Court (TSE).§5
Closes: Oct 5, 2026 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 14:36 UTC. Not financial advice.