Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 06:23 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 9 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renan20300x88c4…129a | No | 382,318 | 79.1¢ | $335K | Proven+$11.66 per $100 · 471 bets |
| 657657570x2974…9c23 | No | 227,008 | 70.8¢ | $199K | Proven+$6.14 per $100 · 376 bets |
| SuperavitFiscal0xeb49…693e | No | 143,666 | 67.7¢ | $126K | Losing−$5.42 per $100 · 344 bets |
| LulaVaiPerder0x7f9e…3a0e | No | 83,178 | 70.9¢ | $72.8K | Proven+$9.82 per $100 · 435 bets |
| Abkhauae0x7c75…4d1d | Yes | 576,141 | 44.6¢ | $72K | New0 settled bets |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | Yes | 574,826 | 60.3¢ | $71.9K | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| ivantoney0x2616…c6aa | No | 70,682 | 57.0¢ | $61.8K | New13 settled bets |
| StudentMoney0xfb51…742d | No | 60,736 | 85.3¢ | $53.1K | Break-even−$0.69 per $100 · 1,767 bets |
| Jimmy-Carvalho-Opcoes0x82e0…0779 | No | 59,975 | 47.4¢ | $52.5K | New5 settled bets |
| kylox0x3d29…2408 | No | 47,840 | 61.8¢ | $41.9K | New2 settled bets |
| Melody6260xecaa…77a9 | No | 41,568 | 71.1¢ | $36.4K | Break-even−$0.04 per $100 · 1,637 bets |
| NSNO0x6de1…dfc9 | No | 41,525 | 45.5¢ | $36.3K | New1 settled bet |
| 0x4488…e319 | Yes | 268,819 | 12.4¢ | $33.6K | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 7,574 bets |
| fzol0x25d7…6176 | Yes | 250,000 | 13.0¢ | $31.2K | New0 settled bets |
| tourists0xc6dd…4b9f | No | 34,483 | 77.7¢ | $30.2K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 929 bets |
| flawfence0x23d8…0288 | Yes | 241,061 | 13.0¢ | $30.1K | Proven+$3.89 per $100 · 729 bets |
| wan1230xde7b…5f4b | No | 32,468 | 55.0¢ | $28.4K | Proven+$8.03 per $100 · 528 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 218,167 | 48.0¢ | $27.3K | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,413 bets |
| eventalpha260x2e7b…bd8c | Yes | 208,808 | 21.1¢ | $26.1K | New0 settled bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | No | 26,001 | 50.6¢ | $22.8K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,102 bets |
| d5BDa0A44B6595810x5f14…c52a | Yes | 181,494 | 17.3¢ | $22.7K | New28 settled bets |
| X108X0xdcab…6289 | Yes | 157,308 | 14.4¢ | $19.7K | New0 settled bets |
| defillama70x4c8c…e36f | Yes | 142,241 | 15.2¢ | $17.8K | New64 settled bets |
| 97979797979970x2516…d95f | Yes | 135,400 | 14.6¢ | $16.9K | New14 settled bets |
| Johnlocke330x3a59…0242 | Yes | 135,212 | 39.4¢ | $16.9K | New1 settled bet |
| The-Joker0x9aeb…2729 | Yes | 123,187 | 14.5¢ | $15.4K | Proven+$2.98 per $100 · 2,738 bets |
| McMurphy0x72b4…7eeb | No | 15,808 | 48.8¢ | $13.8K | New92 settled bets |
| hideki.hirata0x267e…b526 | Yes | 108,273 | 48.5¢ | $13.5K | New1 settled bet |
| 0x8b4b…541b | Yes | 100,000 | 17.6¢ | $12.5K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
| tobit050x42a0…4239 | No | 13,434 | 61.2¢ | $11.8K | New4 settled bets |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | No | 13,423 | 53.7¢ | $11.7K | Positive+$6.72 per $100 · 6,725 bets |
| Lula202620260xa26f…91e4 | Yes | 87,325 | 45.5¢ | $10.9K | New2 settled bets |
| bolorini990xc3d5…ff2d | Yes | 86,706 | 16.4¢ | $10.8K | New9 settled bets |
| JackLogan0xbb82…9f37 | No | 11,946 | 48.2¢ | $10.5K | New34 settled bets |
| HugolinoXavier0xaece…87f3 | Yes | 80,001 | 40.2¢ | $10K | New37 settled bets |
| jpceia0xd7f2…d2e0 | Yes | 76,900 | 14.0¢ | $9.61K | New15 settled bets |
| 0x35d4…f15b | No | 10,863 | 58.0¢ | $9.5K | New35 settled bets |
| ThanksGivingTurkey10010xbace…3429 | Yes | 75,942 | 15.3¢ | $9.49K | Positive+$1.59 per $100 · 415 bets |
| Ronilson100521120xad3c…410b | Yes | 72,180 | 37.7¢ | $9.02K | New0 settled bets |
| sassy315350x30b6…0bb7 | Yes | 70,230 | 51.9¢ | $8.78K | New0 settled bets |
| 0x3692…fc12 | No | 10,015 | 44.9¢ | $8.76K | New21 settled bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | Yes | 68,549 | 12.3¢ | $8.57K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 625 bets |
| diadjaid0x784f…5df9 | No | 9,100 | 82.8¢ | $7.96K | Positive+$4.39 per $100 · 527 bets |
| counterflow0xe70d…dda0 | No | 8,332 | 64.9¢ | $7.29K | New1 settled bet |
| pirulirubeibe0x30fc…510d | No | 8,000 | 49.8¢ | $7K | New59 settled bets |
| Rafael880x720b…37f6 | Yes | 55,370 | 12.4¢ | $6.92K | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 208 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 54,723 | 10.7¢ | $6.84K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| okada0x3cb1…5e96 | No | 7,772 | 41.5¢ | $6.8K | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 153 bets |
| Tigerofthehood0x9c26…74bc | Yes | 50,654 | 11.8¢ | $6.33K | Positive+$1.01 per $100 · 237 bets |
| tunatyler0xf1f9…1245 | Yes | 50,000 | 13.0¢ | $6.25K | Proven+$6.66 per $100 · 2,308 bets |
| SmartOpt0xbcd2…6ab0 | No | 7,108 | 47.2¢ | $6.22K | Losing−$51.31 per $100 · 113 bets |
| GoriIIa0xfffa…864b | No | 7,000 | 87.5¢ | $6.13K | Proven+$2.39 per $100 · 414 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 6,802 | 83.0¢ | $5.95K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,934 bets |
| bmmmm40x38c1…2023 | No | 6,710 | 85.0¢ | $5.87K | New36 settled bets |
| alldoubt0xd69a…74c3 | No | 6,631 | 65.9¢ | $5.8K | New41 settled bets |
| Lula2026260x9cd1…6abd | Yes | 46,205 | 43.0¢ | $5.78K | New2 settled bets |
| 0xacde…42f1 | Yes | 45,805 | 25.2¢ | $5.73K | New0 settled bets |
| vitorloures0x4cea…c297 | No | 6,320 | 41.8¢ | $5.53K | New67 settled bets |
| 0x91f7…be59 | Yes | 43,585 | 35.1¢ | $5.45K | New3 settled bets |
| brte0xca2f…e2cc | No | 6,000 | 62.0¢ | $5.25K | New7 settled bets |
| 0x4082…efd6 | Yes | 41,428 | 15.0¢ | $5.18K | New3 settled bets |
| 0x6b25…7a69 | No | 5,400 | 63.9¢ | $4.72K | Proven+$3.93 per $100 · 4,295 bets |
| malucodolula0xd346…d36a | Yes | 35,417 | 45.2¢ | $4.43K | New0 settled bets |
| Predictandbreathe0x2707…0afa | Yes | 35,000 | 15.2¢ | $4.37K | Losing−$3.24 per $100 · 3,219 bets |
| Moond0x9dfe…b3dd | No | 5,000 | 63.0¢ | $4.37K | Proven+$7.42 per $100 · 2,276 bets |
| vinidemoraes0x8884…0af4 | No | 4,925 | 47.0¢ | $4.31K | New4 settled bets |
| dromedaryy0x6575…b198 | Yes | 34,341 | 16.0¢ | $4.29K | New85 settled bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 4,825 | 68.5¢ | $4.22K | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| sapocego230xb308…7adb | Yes | 33,577 | 39.4¢ | $4.2K | New1 settled bet |
| chrissueco0x9cb0…eea0 | No | 4,668 | 53.7¢ | $4.08K | New71 settled bets |
| Vespuccii0x712f…9fe6 | Yes | 32,101 | 14.5¢ | $4.01K | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 238 bets |
| lukelunaleona0xa995…ca6e | Yes | 31,964 | 39.2¢ | $4K | New0 settled bets |
| Eduglower0x96ee…bd76 | Yes | 31,945 | 18.7¢ | $3.99K | New33 settled bets |
| BiroLiro0x7156…fb53 | No | 4,543 | 56.9¢ | $3.98K | New0 settled bets |
| bmm3330xba95…d14b | No | 4,422 | 85.5¢ | $3.87K | New47 settled bets |
| 0xb9ef…0b8b | No | 4,392 | 84.2¢ | $3.84K | New3 settled bets |
| rlpajn0x0b53…3598 | No | 4,386 | 37.9¢ | $3.84K | New46 settled bets |
| coali100x7bc1…8db4 | No | 4,380 | 33.7¢ | $3.83K | Positive+$4.11 per $100 · 400 bets |
| mountaindewd0x944e…8c94 | Yes | 30,000 | 15.3¢ | $3.75K | Proven+$9.46 per $100 · 748 bets |
| Miojinho0x64db…8c8e | Yes | 30,000 | 20.7¢ | $3.75K | Positive+$14.57 per $100 · 185 bets |
| Ismashow0xf0c9…d849 | Yes | 29,920 | 16.9¢ | $3.74K | New1 settled bet |
| Kaiquecfs0xf715…9cd0 | Yes | 29,808 | 35.4¢ | $3.73K | New0 settled bets |
| sabatke0xeca5…79b2 | Yes | 29,412 | 16.2¢ | $3.68K | New0 settled bets |
| 0x36e5…fd74 | No | 4,133 | 54.3¢ | $3.62K | New75 settled bets |
| debased0x24c8…23e1 | Yes | 28,843 | 13.7¢ | $3.61K | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 7,227 bets |
| blink210x9372…a18a | No | 4,060 | 64.9¢ | $3.55K | New9 settled bets |
| ForaPT260xe441…d0b2 | Yes | 28,312 | 45.9¢ | $3.54K | New4 settled bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 27,995 | 47.1¢ | $3.5K | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| eskillo0x6be9…5998 | No | 3,990 | 62.6¢ | $3.49K | Positive+$3.05 per $100 · 1,596 bets |
| 0x1b29…1227 | Yes | 27,471 | 39.9¢ | $3.43K | Losing−$22.04 per $100 · 230 bets |
| MeFree0x9cad…4b5a | No | 3,918 | 59.0¢ | $3.43K | New7 settled bets |
| hehhehe0x40a8…b010 | No | 3,916 | 59.6¢ | $3.43K | New8 settled bets |
| thetaarbitrage0xc882…8736 | No | 3,879 | 52.8¢ | $3.39K | New17 settled bets |
| dcastro2220xf17c…f9a0 | Yes | 25,591 | 42.6¢ | $3.2K | New0 settled bets |
| aff30xe52c…6924 | No | 3,655 | 85.5¢ | $3.2K | Proven+$2.90 per $100 · 274 bets |
| almosthere0xbd2b…1a1b | No | 3,648 | 63.9¢ | $3.19K | Positive+$6.09 per $100 · 137 bets |
| LFOA950xee97…ff07 | Yes | 25,271 | 41.7¢ | $3.16K | New0 settled bets |
| zoro121231230x7f88…c6e8 | No | 3,600 | 35.9¢ | $3.15K | — |
| Greedo0x457f…aa1a | Yes | 25,000 | 42.0¢ | $3.12K | Losing−$3.10 per $100 · 294 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.