As written on Polymarket for “Will Iran target Bahrain by October 31, 2026?”.
§1This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Bahrain through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).
§2Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
§3A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Bahrain.
§4An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
§5A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
§6The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
§7Surface-to-air missile strikes;
§8Small-arms fire;
§9Ground incursions;
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 23:56 UTC. Not financial advice.
§10Cyber operations;
§11Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
§12Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
§13Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
§14Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
§15Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
§16A military action will be considered directed at Bahrain if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Bahrain, including any internal waters.
§17Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market.
§18Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
§19The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.
§20Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action.
§21If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.
§22At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.
§23No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
§24The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and Bahrain and a consensus of credible reporting.