Market
Will Iran target Bahrain by October 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 23:10 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HeDidWearASuit0x05c8…2223 | No | 2,000 | 45.0¢ | $1.39K | — |
| MaxVision0x5be9…9106 | Yes | 2,000 | 55.0¢ | $610 | Positive+$12.04 per $100 · 196 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 102 | 63.2¢ | $71 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 185 | 32.0¢ | $56 | Losing−$2.76 per $100 · 122,728 bets |
| ZhouCD0xa89c…1410 | No | 33 | 76.4¢ | $23 | Losing−$8.33 per $100 · 815 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No | 20 | 84.0¢ | $14 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,255 bets |
| Konfucious0xac76…9359 | No | 20 | 59.0¢ | $14 | — |
| 0xf8dd…3807 | No | 7 | 75.0¢ | $5 | — |
| JokerTheClown0x819d…07f1 | No | 5 | 58.0¢ | $3 | Proven+$23.82 per $100 · 12,229 bets |
| 0xbb90…2335 | Yes | 5 | 42.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Apolinariia0x0638…a2e4 | No | 2 | 91.0¢ | $2 | — |
| ccyy20260x4282…3455 | No | 1 | 91.5¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.82 per $100 · 1,685 bets |
| 5-testfollower-car0x3be5…f7fe | No | 1 | 68.0¢ | $1 | — |
| boempie0xb678…299e | Yes | 1 | 9.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 0 | 84.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Iran Hormuz Transit Fees · 3 events · $276K in play