François Bayrou

Decided by

The market resolves "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round or wins outright in the first round; otherwise "No".§5

No election or no results

If no such election occurs, or first-round results are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves "No".§7

Outright first-round win

Advancing includes winning the election outright in the first round.§5

Early election

The market covers the next French presidential election whether it follows the scheduled term end or is held earlier.§2

Ambiguity

If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on official results reported by the French Ministry of the Interior.§9

Counted

Candidate advancement to the second round, or an outright win in the first round.§5

Source

A consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, the official results reported by the French Ministry of the Interior.§8

Closes

Apr 19, 2027 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.

• Marine Le Pen 89.5¢
• Édouard Philippe 47.5¢
• Jean-Luc Mélenchon 39.5¢
• David Lisnard 13.9¢
• Bruno Retailleau 6.6¢
• Raphaël Glucksmann 6.6¢
• François Hollande 5.9¢
• Gabriel Attal 5.8¢
• Jordan Bardella 5.5¢
• Dominique de Villepin 5.5¢
• Manuel Bompard 4.8¢
• Sarah Knafo 4.7¢

24 more outcomes in this event.