François Hollande

How these markets fit together

Exactly one of this event's 16 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to 110.5¢ right now.

Decided by

The listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election.§2

Tie for a position

Ties for any position are broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed full names as they appear in the market.§4

Second-highest position

The market resolves to the candidate occupying the second-highest finishing position after applying the ranking.§5

Result not known

If the result isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other".§6

Ambiguity

If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior.§7

Counted

Valid votes won in the first round; candidates ranked by order of valid votes won.§3

Source

A consensus of credible reporting; for ambiguity, official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior.§7

Closes

Apr 18, 2027 · 23:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• Jean-Luc Mélenchon 43.0¢
• Édouard Philippe 37.0¢
• Marine Le Pen 11.5¢
• Raphaël Glucksmann 8.0¢
• David Lisnard 4.9¢
• Bruno Retailleau 1.9¢
• Gabriel Attal 0.5¢
• François Hollande 0.5¢
• Christine Lagarde 0.5¢
• Éric Zemmour 0.5¢
• Sarah Knafo 0.4¢
• Jordan Bardella 0.4¢

4 more outcomes in this event.

These 16 outcomes add up to 110.5¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.