Market · 1 of 10 outcomes
Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 14:21 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | Yes | 3,663 | 96.4¢ | $3.62K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 2,412 bets |
| 0xce83…5b97 | Yes | 857 | 91.0¢ | $846 | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| DarkFish0x87cb…6232 | Yes | 685 | 77.8¢ | $676 | — |
| z13cc0x8bfc…659a | Yes | 504 | 99.2¢ | $497 | — |
| Natsan0x91e5…0947 | Yes | 256 | 80.3¢ | $253 | — |
| UN-Sure0x8891…b5fc | Yes | 176 | 97.8¢ | $174 | — |
| Ryxon210x3dca…3c13 | Yes | 128 | 97.1¢ | $127 | Proven+$7.45 per $100 · 578 bets |
| Trowah0x6518…b97c | Yes | 101 | 99.0¢ | $100 | — |
| 0xf040…d11f | Yes | 85 | 90.5¢ | $84 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 64 | 99.0¢ | $63 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,945 bets |
| alpha.chen0xe11a…c40b | Yes | 61 | 88.4¢ | $60 | — |
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | Yes | 58 | 81.0¢ | $57 | Positive+$2.06 per $100 · 3,296 bets |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 50 | 3.2¢ | $49 | — |
| unicornxing0x8a29…3f0b | Yes | 40 | 98.0¢ | $39 | — |
| Nicolasro910x671c…e261 | Yes | 28 | 61.0¢ | $28 | — |
| sanlitou2026p10x7a8e…89d8 | Yes | 20 | 98.0¢ | $20 | — |
| sanlitouP20x1d27…7e73 | Yes | 20 | 97.9¢ | $20 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 20 | 77.0¢ | $20 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb90x6891…6bb9 | Yes | 20 | 98.1¢ | $20 | — |
| LeChatonFat0x9629…ee15 | Yes | 20 | 36.0¢ | $20 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 15 | 98.1¢ | $15 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| lava-lava0x629b…995a | No | 1,114 | 5.0¢ | $14 | Proven+$7.83 per $100 · 1,850 bets |
| 0xe41a…29bd | No | 1,000 | 4.0¢ | $13 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 108 bets |
| macrosteaks0xefac…c9a1 | No | 952 | 9.0¢ | $12 | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 14,246 bets |
| 0x6123…8b33 | Yes | 12 | 84.5¢ | $12 | Losing−$2.84 per $100 · 4,657 bets |
| MiyagoloMusashi0x823d…2db3 | Yes | 11 | 95.2¢ | $11 | Break-even−$0.26 per $100 · 1,038 bets |
| 0xf5e4…471a | No | 739 | 1.2¢ | $10 | — |
| hamid19190x3cbe…2520 | Yes | 9 | 91.3¢ | $9 | Proven+$2.47 per $100 · 1,204 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 600 | 6.9¢ | $8 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| 0x987e…c3bd | Yes | 7 | 93.0¢ | $7 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | Yes | 6 | 94.2¢ | $6 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| Rr550xb8ad…ff58 | Yes | 6 | 75.0¢ | $6 | — |
| smartpreset0x1680…490d | Yes | 5 | 93.4¢ | $5 | Losing−$6.09 per $100 · 983 bets |
| q8B2xW9mP5kL0x5cea…0ae0 | Yes | 5 | 93.0¢ | $5 | — |
| superjacks0xd89e…9c91 | Yes | 5 | 97.1¢ | $5 | — |
| cosmicsteaks0xf4f8…5bf1 | No | 348 | 9.8¢ | $5 | — |
| ox9614b59508B11504bDA8Ac4FDFBEFc2f92d8D2170x9614…d217 | Yes | 3 | 97.6¢ | $3 | — |
| Sailis0x5503…ad02 | Yes | 3 | 76.7¢ | $3 | — |
| kittycat670x808a…ef3f | No | 179 | 18.3¢ | $2 | Positive+$3.33 per $100 · 392 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 138 | 7.7¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.61 per $100 · 123,693+ bets · updating |
| mmtrading0x5a0c…9db8 | No | 111 | 9.1¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.32 per $100 · 14,879 bets |
| Podgecaste0xbd1a…0e59 | Yes | 1 | 75.7¢ | $1 | — |
| qqqppp-l10x229c…b966 | No | 85 | 5.9¢ | $1 | — |
| osmych0x7008…2fdd | Yes | 1 | 98.0¢ | $1 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 74 | 26.2¢ | $1 | — |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | No | 60 | 46.3¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.91 per $100 · 3,067 bets |
| DuneMentat0x28ca…5d19 | No | 57 | 18.6¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.16 per $100 · 5,584 bets |
| 0xfb9d…d78e | No | 55 | 2.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 1,190 bets |
| mamboNB50x1c00…7af4 | No | 47 | 21.0¢ | $1 | — |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | No | 30 | 5.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.96 per $100 · 4,379 bets |
| 0x08ef…e466 | No | 20 | 27.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.53 per $100 · 1,174 bets |
| 0x6d7f…1d58 | No | 20 | 59.0¢ | $0 | — |
| tiongbu0xb777…3ff9 | No | 20 | 37.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x11b5…8c02 | No | 15 | 54.3¢ | $0 | — |
| leectram20x0d4f…000e | No | 12 | 18.6¢ | $0 | Losing−$4.87 per $100 · 2,185 bets |
| meitalg0x1790…30f7 | No | 10 | 17.6¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.11 per $100 · 1,354 bets |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | No | 10 | 35.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| 0x978b…2add | No | 8 | 17.6¢ | $0 | — |
| freedom690x9362…d4a4 | No | 8 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| enderwnd0x055d…5a73 | No | 6 | 18.6¢ | $0 | — |
| t.rex0x034e…60ce | No | 6 | 30.0¢ | $0 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 6 | 0.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| 0x2015…9678 | No | 5 | 22.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 80sdfs0xfaa2…36bb | No | 4 | 35.1¢ | $0 | — |
| monoclith0x24e8…4546 | No | 3 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| kroko0xf8cc…028a | No | 3 | 1.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$45.56 per $100 · 6,989 bets |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | No | 2 | 24.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$7.23 per $100 · 10,676 bets |
| beatrix990xdb24…496b | Yes | 0 | 95.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9daa…9904 | No | 1 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| rocky420020x1e52…91d6 | No | 1 | 22.2¢ | $0 | — |
| FrozenParasite0x1f9e…4f1a | Yes | 0 | 0.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$21.36 per $100 · 1,799 bets |
| nibblemaxxing0xc50c…3017 | No | 1 | 57.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x13e1…0805 | No | 0 | 46.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x1e75…63f1 | No | 0 | 6.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.06 per $100 · 2,545 bets |
| 0x1ef0…e28e | No | 0 | 9.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 9.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 130,831 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | No | 0 | 10.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,460 bets |
| HE110W0R1D0xa86f…022c | No | 0 | 5.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 5.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
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Federal District Governor Election · 2026 · 2 events · $12.4K in play
Exactly one of this event's 10 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.