US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?
Chance of Yes
Money on this event
3 outcomes
Room to trade
0.4¢ between buy and sell
Bet this week
Ends
Oct 12
tomorrow
Full rules
As written on Polymarket for “US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?”.
§1This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time.
§2Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
§3A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen.
§4An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
§5A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
§6The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States.
§7Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify.
§8Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike.
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 22:54 UTC. Not financial advice.
§9The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
§10Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
§11Surface-to-air missile strikes;
§12Small-arms fire;
§13Ground incursions;
§14Cyber operations;
§15Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
§16Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
§17Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
§18Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
§19Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action.
§20Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
§21“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters.
§22Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed.
§23Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
§24The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.
§25Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action.
§26If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.
§27At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.
§28No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
§29The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.