Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Chance of Yes
▼ 2 pts this week
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3 outcomes
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Ends
Dec 31
in 79 days
Full rules
As written on Polymarket for “Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?”.
§1On September 22, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with President Trump saying another meeting is scheduled in the near future.(see: https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon).
§2This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
§3Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
§4A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation.
§5A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement.
§6A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presiding officer of a national legislature; a special envoy; or another individual designated by the head of state or head of government to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf.
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 13:58 UTC. Not financial advice.
§7Individuals authorized only for technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, preparatory, or working-group-level talks will not be considered designated to conduct diplomatic negotiations on behalf of the head of state or head of government.
§8This definition includes, but is not limited to, all of the following individuals: for the United States, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; and for Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
§9In each case, a qualifying representative must participate in the meeting.
§10A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person.
§11Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs.
§12An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators.
§13A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city as part of a single organized round of talks convened for the purpose of diplomatic engagement, with the intermediary conveying communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day.
§14“The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location.
§15Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the listed countries is separately held alongside such a convening.
§16The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments.
§17The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
The market resolves "Yes" if a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran occurs by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.§2
Standing summits
Sessions or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits do not qualify unless a qualifying meeting is…§15
Excluded meetings
Chance encounters, greetings-only exchanges, remote or phone meetings, and talks with unauthorized persons do not qualify.§16
Direct meeting
A direct meeting is one where representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person.§10
Indirect criteria
Indirect meetings need intermediaries authorized by both entities and representatives of both physically present in the same facility, venue, or city in one…§13
Counted
Any direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date.§2
Source
Official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.§17
Closes
Dec 31, 2026 · 23:59 UTC
Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.