As written on Polymarket for “US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?”.
§1This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
§2A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran.
§3A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
§4All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met.
§5A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement.
§6Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.
§7Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement.
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 09:45 UTC. Not financial advice.
§8Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify.
§9A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement.
§10Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves.
§11Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement.
§12If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.
§13No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
§14The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
The market resolves Yes if the US and Iran announce a diplomatic agreement over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.§1
Ambiguous announcements
If it stays ambiguous whether the announcements are a qualifying agreement, the market stays open for further confirmation or 14 calendar days.§11
No confirmation
If no definitive confirmation by the fourteenth calendar day, the market resolves on the totality of information available from the resolution sources then.§12
Contradicted evidence
No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence governs where the totality of information contradicts it.§13
Non-qualifying statements
Statements about ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or support without confirming acceptance, do not qualify.§8
Counted
All listed countries must announce acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement.§4
Source
Official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.§14
Closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 04:59 UTC
Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.