Market · 1 of 5 outcomes
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:31 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KrackenSruster0xd44e…67e2 | No | 6,377 | 60.0¢ | $4.11K | Proven+$10.52 per $100 · 893 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | Yes | 5,000 | 40.0¢ | $1.77K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 920 | 66.2¢ | $593 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | Yes | 1,439 | 35.6¢ | $511 | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| nellojello0xa8ae…8eb7 | No | 700 | 63.9¢ | $452 | Proven+$10.19 per $100 · 305 bets |
| mamai0xabbe…8f37 | No | 508 | 61.0¢ | $328 | Losing−$7.39 per $100 · 667 bets |
| 1310710xa8b9…6b7c | Yes | 740 | 35.3¢ | $263 | — |
| serferer0xdc70…cc56 | No | 403 | 73.8¢ | $260 | — |
| ctesupremo0xff02…f143 | No | 337 | 49.8¢ | $217 | — |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 329 | 66.3¢ | $212 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 583 | 34.6¢ | $207 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | Yes | 533 | 38.4¢ | $189 | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 19,488 bets |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 346 | 36.3¢ | $123 | Positive+$6.97 per $100 · 10,606 bets |
| 0x8b5a…b95d | Yes | 331 | 41.7¢ | $117 | Losing−$24.53 per $100 · 517 bets |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | Yes | 300 | 28.7¢ | $106 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| 0x6ead…14f8 | No | 160 | 54.0¢ | $103 | Positive+$6.58 per $100 · 200 bets |
| ArkiYo0x1b7c…20a6 | No | 156 | 64.0¢ | $101 | — |
| badatthis0x75ac…33d7 | Yes | 250 | 39.0¢ | $89 | Proven+$6.73 per $100 · 6,671 bets |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | No | 110 | 74.2¢ | $71 | Break-even+$0.40 per $100 · 627 bets |
| kerob0x6214…20d1 | Yes | 182 | 33.0¢ | $65 | New71 settled bets |
| CT-test0x5ad6…d276 | Yes | 171 | 38.0¢ | $61 | New32 settled bets |
| 0xafa7…6e67 | No | 86 | 69.0¢ | $56 | — |
| liuxb19980x4514…b502 | Yes | 150 | 26.7¢ | $53 | — |
| Umaroth0xefde…783d | Yes | 144 | 35.0¢ | $51 | Break-even+$0.51 per $100 · 4,270 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 77 | 68.3¢ | $50 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,938 bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | No | 70 | 61.0¢ | $45 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| unclefei0280xf88b…0ed2 | No | 70 | 64.6¢ | $45 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 109 | 37.1¢ | $39 | Losing−$2.67 per $100 · 123,278+ bets · updating |
| ForeverRed0xa577…b06a | No | 51 | 59.0¢ | $33 | — |
| Username07090xe56e…b06a | No | 51 | 59.0¢ | $33 | — |
| MiyagoloMusashi0x823d…2db3 | No | 50 | 60.3¢ | $32 | Break-even−$0.26 per $100 · 1,038 bets |
| 0xb2a9…25d5 | No | 50 | 60.6¢ | $32 | — |
| FishermansFiend0x3a59…6c6f | No | 48 | 65.0¢ | $31 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 177 bets |
| 0x7f14…db44 | No | 40 | 62.1¢ | $26 | — |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5 | No | 36 | 45.0¢ | $23 | Proven+$3.99 per $100 · 1,175 bets |
| Pantheon10x606e…6b3a | No | 33 | 59.0¢ | $21 | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 477 bets |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 49 | 28.0¢ | $17 | — |
| 0xd85c…f69c | Yes | 49 | 37.0¢ | $17 | — |
| AFKFAN0x33bf…e557 | Yes | 45 | 33.0¢ | $16 | — |
| Agecanonix0xe068…c5ea | No | 19 | 68.0¢ | $12 | — |
| polikstoproc0xb016…95fd | No | 18 | 62.2¢ | $11 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 36.0¢ | $11 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Milin-dc0x2762…2cf6 | Yes | 30 | 39.6¢ | $11 | Break-even+$0.55 per $100 · 1,651 bets |
| Joonasru0x71aa…3b52 | Yes | 28 | 36.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0xc48c…f469 | Yes | 28 | 36.0¢ | $10 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 27 | 21.8¢ | $10 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| 0xc9db…7a75 | No | 14 | 68.6¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x2e87…3534 | No | 13 | 53.0¢ | $9 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 23 | 38.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| Majas0x4959…a6f5 | Yes | 22 | 38.0¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 22,612 bets |
| mandraca0x0695…4acc | No | 11 | 62.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | Yes | 20 | 54.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$3.37 per $100 · 13,656 bets |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | Yes | 20 | 35.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 351 bets |
| 0x43b2…3234 | Yes | 20 | 41.2¢ | $7 | — |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | No | 10 | 68.0¢ | $6 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 6,249 bets |
| adsfasdf1130x0dba…2db9 | No | 10 | 60.0¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 7,608 bets |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | No | 10 | 67.0¢ | $6 | Proven+$2.83 per $100 · 2,915 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 17 | 37.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| michsfar0xc350…961d | Yes | 15 | 36.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Selorm0xdc91…bb03 | Yes | 15 | 34.0¢ | $5 | — |
| srczm0x2249…0788 | Yes | 14 | 36.0¢ | $5 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 14 | 37.6¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | No | 6 | 49.0¢ | $4 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| Edi120xc031…2c43 | No | 6 | 71.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x461e…ec51 | Yes | 10 | 49.0¢ | $4 | Proven+$5.12 per $100 · 389 bets |
| ddd1d430x0b4e…4d72 | Yes | 10 | 37.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 3,507 bets |
| asdf112d0x839f…ecba | Yes | 10 | 37.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 3,502 bets |
| rasvp0x6a60…ea7d | No | 5 | 60.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$9.12 per $100 · 551 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 9 | 37.9¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0xa286…ea95 | Yes | 9 | 33.3¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xblink0xf6d3…7e6c | No | 5 | 46.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Jacksongf0x6832…ce90 | Yes | 8 | 40.0¢ | $3 | — |
| burge1460x3187…1df4 | No | 3 | 67.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$7.50 per $100 · 508 bets |
| isildursheir0x3342…731f | No | 2 | 59.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Questionmark130x5fca…8c0c | Yes | 3 | 33.0¢ | $1 | New9 settled bets |
| thunderquack0x07fd…ad26 | No | 2 | 62.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$5.90 per $100 · 614 bets |
| Legacy9703210xc271…1708 | No | 2 | 64.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Arpayon0xd5f0…932c | No | 2 | 64.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Bsv0xacbd…dc7c | No | 2 | 65.3¢ | $1 | — |
| joy990x5aaa…2a7b | No | 2 | 77.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$13.40 per $100 · 486 bets |
| Etherapp0x9fac…3e5a | No | 1 | 70.0¢ | $1 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | Yes | 2 | 43.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| leantiger0xa1b1…6a83 | No | 0 | 65.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xef3d…80e0 | No | 0 | 45.0¢ | $0 | — |
| galhammerman0xdc05…9a76 | Yes | 0 | 54.0¢ | $0 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | No | 0 | 62.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.12 per $100 · 9,353 bets |
| KZzzsj0x7c3f…ff8d | Yes | 0 | 41.0¢ | $0 | — |
| HE110W0R1D0xa86f…022c | Yes | 0 | 37.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.