Market
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 15:42 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
5 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outsmarter0x1b60…a55b | No | 7,824 | 90.6¢ | $7.54K | Proven+$28.81 per $100 · 152 bets |
| EPunx0x4f00…7add | No | 3,591 | 79.0¢ | $3.46K | Losing−$3.09 per $100 · 274 bets |
| zve3da0xc948…33a1 | No | 1,100 | 90.9¢ | $1.06K | New44 settled bets |
| cqs0xdfe3…73c4 | No | 1,100 | 68.7¢ | $1.06K | Proven+$3.66 per $100 · 401 bets |
| darkus0x88fe…f516 | No | 1,055 | 95.9¢ | $1.02K | — |
| wuxia-world0xaddc…6e43 | No | 597 | 88.6¢ | $576 | — |
| WeJustBettin0xf6c6…7d80 | No | 531 | 84.8¢ | $512 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 735 bets |
| DumplingBMF0x8f69…7df1 | No | 500 | 64.2¢ | $482 | Proven+$2.52 per $100 · 3,946 bets |
| TaylorDorsey28310xee2c…f08a | No | 385 | 75.0¢ | $371 | — |
| sapintegration0xf8d9…08d2 | No | 347 | 77.0¢ | $335 | — |
| Lucasghghgv0x4db5…56c3 | No | 342 | 92.0¢ | $330 | — |
| Samuelge0x9dd3…f681 | No | 342 | 92.0¢ | $330 | — |
| MatthewVelasquez83480xb6ee…9238 | No | 333 | 67.9¢ | $321 | — |
| Ethanuu0xe604…9e87 | No | 317 | 92.0¢ | $306 | — |
| Sebastianuyuyuy0xfb11…8126 | No | 314 | 92.0¢ | $303 | — |
| Masonuyuyuy0x3448…30b0 | No | 312 | 92.0¢ | $301 | — |
| Henryghghg0xebdc…c3a5 | No | 297 | 92.0¢ | $286 | — |
| Levige0x5053…538d | No | 291 | 92.0¢ | $281 | — |
| Mica10x8637…9657 | No | 278 | 90.0¢ | $268 | — |
| jrmafik0x7267…c7dd | No | 246 | 88.4¢ | $237 | — |
| Marooski0xe45a…95eb | No | 240 | 71.0¢ | $231 | — |
| TuttyFruity0x49b6…d152 | No | 201 | 78.0¢ | $194 | — |
| 0x729a…c966 | No | 200 | 70.5¢ | $193 | Losing−$3.03 per $100 · 513 bets |
| 0xed7c…a903 | No | 200 | 75.0¢ | $193 | — |
| VictoriaCline17070x610f…1eda | No | 190 | 74.8¢ | $183 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 189 | 98.8¢ | $182 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,945 bets |
| Witezslav0x680d…a342 | No | 131 | 77.0¢ | $126 | — |
| RonaldOliver18360x7775…6cb4 | No | 131 | 77.0¢ | $126 | — |
| AmandaDavis46870x00c8…e4c8 | No | 109 | 76.0¢ | $105 | — |
| felbax0xa4bd…9bdb | Yes | 2,862 | 34.9¢ | $103 | New4 settled bets |
| 95l0xcd68…cdd3 | No | 105 | 74.6¢ | $101 | — |
| bakedapeyachtclub0xa347…2a40 | No | 104 | 75.0¢ | $100 | — |
| kasatka0x9a61…00d5 | No | 103 | 98.3¢ | $99 | — |
| varch010x0362…449e | No | 100 | 87.0¢ | $96 | Losing−$1.95 per $100 · 13,127 bets |
| SummerWind0xdb22…7ef9 | No | 100 | 85.0¢ | $96 | — |
| btsproof0xb976…c213 | No | 99 | 77.0¢ | $95 | — |
| legspread0x0845…c4ed | No | 96 | 94.0¢ | $93 | — |
| 0x0dcb…a7b4 | Yes | 2,563 | 13.5¢ | $92 | — |
| cryptoadviser0x8fcc…8ef0 | No | 92 | 72.0¢ | $89 | — |
| Greysok0xe443…c065 | No | 89 | 55.0¢ | $86 | — |
| JanetHickman72740x605c…83dc | No | 88 | 75.0¢ | $85 | — |
| ChristineOlson45480x9279…9ca7 | No | 87 | 76.0¢ | $84 | — |
| kwb0x9e17…0d52 | No | 86 | 76.0¢ | $83 | — |
| NoaGGHH0x8641…d047 | Yes | 2,215 | 8.0¢ | $80 | — |
| JamesHaynes36870xd4bc…5d9e | No | 74 | 75.0¢ | $71 | — |
| KennethMorgan71460x3e35…384f | No | 71 | 75.0¢ | $68 | — |
| JesseHo13320x4a54…db64 | No | 71 | 75.0¢ | $68 | — |
| uaenetwork0x968f…a539 | No | 71 | 76.0¢ | $68 | — |
| eugene27k0xf2de…d8c4 | No | 69 | 70.1¢ | $67 | — |
| JeffreyCardenas78790x466e…ed99 | No | 69 | 75.0¢ | $67 | — |
| NicoleAndrews46080xf92a…9134 | No | 69 | 77.0¢ | $67 | — |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 62 | 93.0¢ | $60 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| TANGO8530x70ca…2443 | Yes | 1,500 | 18.1¢ | $54 | — |
| 0xf5e4…471a | Yes | 1,220 | 21.7¢ | $44 | — |
| BigBoiBettin0x48ee…008c | Yes | 1,161 | 23.3¢ | $42 | Positive+$19.61 per $100 · 263 bets |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 1,080 | 1.5¢ | $39 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 1,039 | 32.3¢ | $37 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,415 bets |
| Kiphawk0xbce9…b1ba | Yes | 777 | 19.3¢ | $28 | Losing−$11.74 per $100 · 276 bets |
| bogdanc10xfde6…7ed6 | Yes | 676 | 5.0¢ | $24 | Losing−$16.48 per $100 · 1,194 bets |
| mombil0x68c2…1711 | Yes | 659 | 33.0¢ | $24 | Proven+$5.25 per $100 · 3,129 bets |
| shinyhunter0x0b4f…3b33 | No | 24 | 75.0¢ | $23 | — |
| Nadmi0xe154…0b7f | Yes | 500 | 2.0¢ | $18 | Positive+$11.65 per $100 · 5,809 bets |
| 0x3f6f…e536 | Yes | 500 | 20.0¢ | $18 | — |
| goask0x1cea…f32a | Yes | 474 | 33.1¢ | $17 | — |
| 0xc1ab…95f6 | Yes | 426 | 11.7¢ | $15 | — |
| probability0x74f1…16a8 | Yes | 419 | 39.8¢ | $15 | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 6,639 bets |
| 0x3277…4d96 | Yes | 309 | 7.1¢ | $11 | — |
| smellyEllie0x38f5…6824 | Yes | 292 | 5.7¢ | $11 | Proven+$13.24 per $100 · 3,540 bets |
| JenniferVasquez49140x9ec3…3adc | Yes | 278 | 23.0¢ | $10 | — |
| GNef0xa1d9…4263 | Yes | 260 | 21.5¢ | $9 | — |
| mewmew10xe95e…61f2 | Yes | 250 | 14.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$1.03 per $100 · 1,290 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | Yes | 215 | 14.2¢ | $8 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| YaMaGo4i0xc4e9…795d | Yes | 200 | 1.2¢ | $7 | — |
| Roflan-ludoman0xfcf2…a469 | Yes | 200 | 16.0¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.50 per $100 · 1,478 bets |
| jagernout95550xadae…74d7 | Yes | 167 | 6.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x8026…2f99 | Yes | 162 | 28.1¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x5533…51ba | Yes | 161 | 1.1¢ | $6 | Positive+$3.43 per $100 · 18,435 bets |
| Ellizory0x80d8…7ae0 | Yes | 152 | 7.2¢ | $5 | — |
| Hechuan0x659c…a086 | Yes | 149 | 30.1¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x9178…a2b2 | Yes | 139 | 4.0¢ | $5 | Proven+$6.27 per $100 · 2,206 bets |
| 0x125c…7463 | Yes | 134 | 1.5¢ | $5 | — |
| 5atka0x1c26…6e31 | Yes | 117 | 22.9¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 6,495 bets |
| Hermitsupreme0x3c5a…022d | Yes | 115 | 15.3¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xBAE0xc57c…5070 | Yes | 112 | 13.0¢ | $4 | — |
| AlexFromRussia0xc2eb…c299 | Yes | 110 | 29.6¢ | $4 | — |
| AbigailHolland46680xd80d…b42b | Yes | 106 | 24.0¢ | $4 | — |
| WilliamWong57540xd91d…91fd | Yes | 104 | 24.0¢ | $4 | — |
| MichaelShields34270x04da…dc10 | Yes | 103 | 25.0¢ | $4 | — |
| AntonioHernandez50150x298c…67fb | Yes | 103 | 26.0¢ | $4 | — |
| TraceyPugh81930xe794…321c | Yes | 101 | 24.0¢ | $4 | — |
| yash15070x0e54…3237 | Yes | 100 | 16.0¢ | $4 | — |
| hedgefundcorp0xea5a…e6ae | Yes | 97 | 25.0¢ | $3 | — |
| ThomasDiaz19450x1d9d…a002 | Yes | 88 | 28.0¢ | $3 | — |
| turkerburak0x2c9a…f183 | Yes | 87 | 26.0¢ | $3 | — |
| JasonHernandez76010x5be7…46ee | Yes | 86 | 24.0¢ | $3 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 84 | 6.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| TinaBender95980xa938…a1ff | Yes | 83 | 24.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 82 | 12.0¢ | $3 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,059 bets |
| Extropy0xdae2…d51f | Yes | 80 | 46.4¢ | $3 | — |
| JonathanThomas43690xbcac…f545 | Yes | 66 | 28.0¢ | $2 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.