Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? · Polyray
Market
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
Chance of Yes
▼ 1 pt this week
Money on this market
Room to trade
3¢ between buy and sell
Ends
Jan 1
in 79 days
Full rules
As written on Polymarket for “Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?”.
§1This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
§2Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
§3An official pledge by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
§4A qualifying agreement must include a commitment by Ukraine to limit the total number of personnel in its armed forces.
§5This includes any specific numerical cap on the number of personnel Ukraine may have in its armed forces, or any proportional limit on Ukrainian armed forces personnel (e.g., a commitment to reduce the size of the armed forces by a percentage of its current size).
§6Limits on the number of personnel in specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces will not count.
§7Other limits on Ukrainian military powers, such as the relinquishment of long-range weapons or limits on other categories of armaments or military capabilities, that do not constrain the total number of personnel in Ukraine’s armed forces, will not qualify.
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 13:50 UTC. Not financial advice.
§8An agreement by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not yet finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
§9The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
§10Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
§11The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been made will also qualify.