Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? · Polyray
Market
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Chance of Yes
▲ 1 pt this week
Money on this market
Room to trade
2¢ between buy and sell
Ends
Jan 1
in 80 days
Full rules
As written on Polymarket for “Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? ”.
§1This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
§2Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
§3An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
§4Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
§5An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
§6An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
§7The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 16:40 UTC. Not financial advice.