December 31

Decided by

The market resolves "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.§1

Contested control

If control is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, the market resolves "No".§9

Temporary action

Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption will not qualify alone.§6

Claims only

An announcement, threat, or claim the Houthis lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.§7

Negotiated transfer

A negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement qualifies only once actual control is established on the island.§8

Counted

Control of Perim (Mayyun) Island means primary military control; loss requires another state, occupying force, Yemen's recognized government, or an…§5

Source

Official statements from relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.§10

Closes

Jan 1, 2027 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.

• December 31 44.5¢
• November 30 40.5¢
• October 31 23.7¢
• October 15 9.5¢