Market
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:11 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on No change, 3 on Hike 25 bps. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No change | 1,480 | 65.0¢ | $1.29K | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| beata-monalisa0x5fc7…a9dd | No change | 1,000 | 66.9¢ | $875 | — |
| tetrose0x7447…a16d | No change | 574 | 30.2¢ | $502 | Positive+$3.08 per $100 · 772 bets |
| acuellarF0xc7fb…8eb0 | No change | 102 | 75.9¢ | $89 | Positive+$1.47 per $100 · 434 bets |
| Mandalorec0x039b…9b6c | Hike 25 bps | 680 | 32.1¢ | $85 | — |
| eightpenguins0x3c59…1766 | Hike 25 bps | 621 | 71.9¢ | $78 | Proven+$14.44 per $100 · 681 bets |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | Hike 25 bps | 599 | 72.0¢ | $75 | Losing−$7.91 per $100 · 3,067 bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | No change | 82 | 25.0¢ | $72 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| aliiz0xbea0…e19d | No change | 78 | 29.0¢ | $68 | — |
| pykue0xa45f…d6cb | No change | 69 | 68.0¢ | $60 | — |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No change | 53 | 87.0¢ | $46 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Hike 25 bps | 262 | 25.8¢ | $33 | — |
| andrewpreston0x6e3c…8222 | No change | 25 | 57.0¢ | $22 | — |
| harrisonamanda0x1577…0554 | No change | 23 | 65.0¢ | $20 | — |
| sanlitou2026p10x7a8e…89d8 | No change | 22 | 88.5¢ | $19 | — |
| Konfucious0xac76…9359 | Hike 25 bps | 150 | 47.7¢ | $19 | — |
| 0x0456…c88a | No change | 20 | 78.0¢ | $18 | Proven+$4.70 per $100 · 326 bets |
| 0x5f8b…11c5 | No change | 19 | 28.0¢ | $16 | — |
| televisionloud0x6c1c…1ac2 | No change | 18 | 53.0¢ | $15 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 1,838 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Hike 25 bps | 111 | 32.2¢ | $14 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Hike 25 bps | 106 | 22.9¢ | $13 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Hike 25 bps | 100 | 29.0¢ | $13 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| 0xd45b…7ae6 | Hike 25 bps | 100 | 37.0¢ | $13 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Hike 25 bps | 100 | 62.0¢ | $13 | — |
| LeChatonFat0x9629…ee15 | Hike 25 bps | 98 | 21.0¢ | $12 | — |
| Helloshiba0xf764…312b | Hike 25 bps | 97 | 32.1¢ | $12 | — |
| KenneyG0xc901…0c1d | No change | 14 | 66.0¢ | $12 | — |
| JAMJAMJAM40xe8c4…395d | Hike 25 bps | 74 | 32.1¢ | $9 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 7,027 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Hike 25 bps | 70 | 16.6¢ | $9 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| MMNiam0x949e…f5f2 | Hike 25 bps | 55 | 16.7¢ | $7 | — |
| shoobadooba180x2d6c…e3f5 | Hike 25 bps | 51 | 80.0¢ | $6 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Hike 25 bps | 46 | 26.0¢ | $6 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Hike 25 bps | 36 | 16.1¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| cy6erpunker0x2783…8321 | No change | 5 | 83.0¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 703 bets |
| 0x7c14…5783 | No change | 5 | 22.9¢ | $4 | Losing−$7.32 per $100 · 1,978 bets |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | Hike 25 bps | 30 | 79.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$7.33 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| 0x2f7c…208a | No change | 4 | 29.0¢ | $3 | — |
| qcp20xd245…2318 | Hike 25 bps | 21 | 26.4¢ | $3 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | Hike 25 bps | 20 | 62.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$3.37 per $100 · 13,656 bets |
| T222222222220xea7f…b855 | Hike 25 bps | 19 | 62.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x3b05…bc1c | No change | 2 | 73.0¢ | $2 | — |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Hike 25 bps | 13 | 72.0¢ | $2 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
| 202606010xb36c…1077 | Hike 25 bps | 12 | 60.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$4.69 per $100 · 216 bets |
| ourwq0x84ad…5688 | No change | 2 | 64.2¢ | $1 | — |
| ddd13421b0x1292…b00b | Hike 25 bps | 10 | 26.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.73 per $100 · 9,059 bets |
| bbd113d0x3c7b…6863 | Hike 25 bps | 10 | 22.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 3,847 bets |
| aaab3410x5303…5b7a | Hike 25 bps | 10 | 27.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.46 per $100 · 9,333 bets |
| asdfdd9180x5d3d…8105 | Hike 25 bps | 10 | 27.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 11,893 bets |
| aaab819d0x901e…58f0 | Hike 25 bps | 10 | 27.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ddaasdf0x9209…a393 | Hike 25 bps | 10 | 27.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ddadsf0x9d17…c777 | Hike 25 bps | 10 | 13.0¢ | $1 | — |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | Hike 25 bps | 10 | 28.0¢ | $1 | — |
| sadfsadf0xd47c…c70a | Hike 25 bps | 10 | 13.0¢ | $1 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | Hike 25 bps | 10 | 22.0¢ | $1 | — |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | Hike 25 bps | 9 | 73.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$3.66 per $100 · 14,608 bets |
| jiayadong0x17b5…c164 | No change | 1 | 88.5¢ | $1 | Losing−$26.15 per $100 · 129 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Hike 25 bps | 7 | 21.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Hike 25 bps | 5 | 34.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| 420120xba8d…009d | Hike 25 bps | 4 | 29.2¢ | $1 | — |
| nibblemaxxing0xc50c…3017 | No change | 0 | 29.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 00q0e0qi40gl0x16f5…c651 | Hike 25 bps | 2 | 73.7¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Hike 25 bps | 0 | 13.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Polimaki0x98a8…a47b | Hike 25 bps | 0 | 14.0¢ | $0 | — |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | Hike 25 bps | 0 | 14.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = No change minus Hike 25 bps for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.