Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 00:46 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stupid220x8afa…adb6 | No | 240,534 | 93.7¢ | $222K | Break-even−$0.83 per $100 · 918 bets |
| charlatta0xb7b8…db31 | No | 28,000 | 93.6¢ | $25.9K | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 305 bets |
| TheRealWarMonger0xe472…e7eb | No | 20,010 | 93.1¢ | $18.5K | Break-even−$0.18 per $100 · 699 bets |
| MrNoItAll0x836f…906e | No | 18,769 | 93.2¢ | $17.4K | Positive+$1.90 per $100 · 499 bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | Yes | 169,976 | 6.6¢ | $12.7K | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| kevtp0xdc4b…dbca | No | 10,000 | 93.1¢ | $9.25K | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 346 bets |
| dromedaryy0x6575…b198 | Yes | 110,216 | 6.0¢ | $8.27K | New85 settled bets |
| Talophex0xd0db…b117 | No | 6,359 | 92.1¢ | $5.88K | Proven+$2.05 per $100 · 1,929 bets |
| 0xfc2f…10c7 | No | 6,000 | 92.3¢ | $5.55K | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 1,149 bets |
| ANGGGuess0xab01…2558 | No | 5,666 | 91.0¢ | $5.24K | New10 settled bets |
| CP-directional0x07e1…27af | No | 5,319 | 94.0¢ | $4.92K | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 141 bets |
| aviato0x2a01…6397 | No | 5,150 | 92.2¢ | $4.76K | Positive+$1.04 per $100 · 3,736 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 5,000 | 92.8¢ | $4.62K | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| Avamax0xc97b…47e5 | No | 4,424 | 92.4¢ | $4.09K | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 721 bets |
| 0x9377…2f06 | Yes | 49,072 | 6.3¢ | $3.68K | — |
| 0x8c66…44f3 | No | 3,500 | 93.0¢ | $3.24K | Proven+$3.23 per $100 · 143 bets |
| AyatollahDollar0x4e4e…8bd9 | No | 3,484 | 91.3¢ | $3.22K | — |
| chartreuseverte0xfd07…ce86 | No | 3,360 | 91.0¢ | $3.11K | — |
| Scoofy-Bubik0x709a…7e39 | No | 3,300 | 93.0¢ | $3.05K | New83 settled bets |
| Hnessen0x3465…7082 | No | 2,879 | 91.4¢ | $2.66K | — |
| VortexTrading0x41c7…0df5 | No | 2,563 | 93.5¢ | $2.37K | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 5,224 bets |
| VortexBet0x107f…bb8c | No | 2,400 | 93.4¢ | $2.22K | Break-even+$0.46 per $100 · 7,947 bets |
| 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | 1,700 | 92.7¢ | $1.57K | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 199 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 1,267 | 91.5¢ | $1.17K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| sqsb0x3abd…2c6a | Yes | 15,003 | 6.4¢ | $1.13K | — |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No | 1,000 | 93.0¢ | $925 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,257 bets |
| alwaysOn0xc550…272d | No | 1,000 | 93.0¢ | $925 | Positive+$1.59 per $100 · 1,030 bets |
| 0xf2b0…b26b | No | 1,000 | 86.0¢ | $925 | — |
| 0x485a…21cb | Yes | 11,504 | 9.9¢ | $863 | New55 settled bets |
| piyasayapici0x69cd…d48d | No | 842 | 94.0¢ | $779 | — |
| Rawdy0xc6fa…51e5 | No | 814 | 93.7¢ | $753 | Losing−$4.74 per $100 · 11,532 bets |
| PMTraderAdam0x1547…d066 | No | 700 | 91.0¢ | $648 | — |
| MyTrade4Fun0x25b5…f115 | No | 700 | 93.1¢ | $648 | New58 settled bets |
| WindboundTrace0x3106…51ec | No | 635 | 93.7¢ | $588 | — |
| 0xd054…7e38 | No | 600 | 94.0¢ | $555 | — |
| PhoenixWager0xb3d7…7504 | No | 571 | 87.6¢ | $528 | — |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | No | 568 | 91.4¢ | $526 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| btfrs0xd175…bb3a | No | 538 | 93.0¢ | $497 | — |
| bR8LkJw9TqM0x25d1…9af7 | No | 522 | 93.1¢ | $483 | — |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 500 | 89.2¢ | $463 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 871 bets |
| Milin-dc0x2762…2cf6 | No | 500 | 92.7¢ | $463 | — |
| AuthenticDemigod0x7487…fc0c | No | 500 | 95.0¢ | $463 | Positive+$1.29 per $100 · 346 bets |
| Foundation0x3e43…a83f | No | 500 | 93.0¢ | $462 | — |
| SoftTideWalker0x2ab5…d3ed | No | 473 | 93.0¢ | $437 | — |
| YLp5qR7JwTX0x59cd…e939 | No | 465 | 93.2¢ | $430 | — |
| VelvetSummit0x4a22…63b2 | No | 425 | 93.0¢ | $393 | — |
| tomorrownow0x88fc…900e | No | 400 | 92.0¢ | $370 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 121 bets |
| 0xcc3e…0e8d | Yes | 4,484 | 6.6¢ | $336 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 307 | 93.2¢ | $284 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0xacc9…c790 | Yes | 3,500 | 14.0¢ | $262 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 278 | 91.0¢ | $257 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| duref0xb19c…2467 | Yes | 3,363 | 13.4¢ | $252 | Losing−$12.17 per $100 · 140 bets |
| nchgbhy0x57b0…76f4 | No | 242 | 92.0¢ | $223 | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 2,943 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 226 | 89.7¢ | $209 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,918 bets |
| max4130x975e…2787 | Yes | 2,500 | 8.0¢ | $188 | — |
| Jet90x8705…8354 | No | 200 | 93.0¢ | $185 | Proven+$8.39 per $100 · 490 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 200 | 92.0¢ | $185 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| JackBot0xb7d4…010d | No | 200 | 93.0¢ | $185 | — |
| stu0x84b0…5bc8 | No | 160 | 92.8¢ | $148 | — |
| JungPung0x6339…ad29 | Yes | 1,500 | 6.5¢ | $112 | Positive+$57.09 per $100 · 274 bets |
| Samson-project0xfe18…d3a0 | Yes | 1,429 | 14.0¢ | $107 | — |
| tacowaco0x8be8…23aa | Yes | 1,290 | 10.1¢ | $97 | — |
| 0x6a86…8a9a | Yes | 1,250 | 8.0¢ | $94 | — |
| AintNoWay0x2388…24fd | Yes | 1,100 | 7.1¢ | $82 | — |
| lacuna-m10x307f…c327 | Yes | 1,000 | 6.0¢ | $75 | — |
| 88blitzcrank0xa5fd…36d1 | Yes | 1,000 | 8.0¢ | $75 | — |
| 0x6a01…dbc2 | Yes | 1,000 | 7.0¢ | $75 | — |
| justT0xbfe2…1913 | Yes | 1,000 | 7.0¢ | $75 | New39 settled bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | Yes | 974 | 6.0¢ | $73 | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 19,488 bets |
| 0x223b…85df | Yes | 925 | 7.7¢ | $69 | — |
| vincentfire0x7144…6624 | Yes | 900 | 6.3¢ | $67 | New92 settled bets |
| Lunarcorona0x96e8…bf9f | Yes | 895 | 6.0¢ | $67 | New22 settled bets |
| 0xdc94…9a27 | Yes | 833 | 6.0¢ | $63 | — |
| vibingcat0xbae1…2def | Yes | 769 | 13.0¢ | $58 | — |
| Funkytonestar0x4e1e…f7f9 | Yes | 750 | 6.0¢ | $56 | — |
| 0xac4c…b2f5 | Yes | 650 | 11.0¢ | $49 | — |
| oswiu0xebad…00ba | Yes | 643 | 7.0¢ | $48 | New26 settled bets |
| brassvault0xa5e6…b4b8 | Yes | 640 | 6.9¢ | $48 | — |
| pmarket03050x8822…b769 | Yes | 625 | 8.0¢ | $47 | — |
| Avitz330x7a90…2ff9 | Yes | 600 | 7.0¢ | $45 | Proven+$13.01 per $100 · 1,255 bets |
| KakiBatusik0x371c…c236 | Yes | 516 | 7.5¢ | $39 | — |
| 0x8b5a…b95d | Yes | 500 | 6.0¢ | $38 | Losing−$24.53 per $100 · 517 bets |
| Crabsoup920xa156…cf02 | Yes | 500 | 6.0¢ | $38 | — |
| Ccc0x381f…bc99 | Yes | 480 | 12.7¢ | $36 | — |
| 0x6901…5ed0 | Yes | 430 | 9.3¢ | $32 | — |
| 0xd222…fdb5 | Yes | 408 | 8.2¢ | $31 | — |
| MAHMT0x4e23…d084 | Yes | 400 | 8.0¢ | $30 | — |
| meklaren0xc4e1…5c0c | Yes | 375 | 8.0¢ | $28 | — |
| Joseaa0x633e…9a04 | Yes | 355 | 6.7¢ | $27 | — |
| Dimamam0x56bb…2949 | Yes | 313 | 8.0¢ | $23 | — |
| rocky420180xeda0…7dff | Yes | 300 | 12.0¢ | $23 | — |
| Mgazit19570x9789…7c95 | Yes | 286 | 7.0¢ | $21 | — |
| chefradish0xd1ee…a8ae | Yes | 268 | 7.5¢ | $20 | — |
| 0x9e3e…f882 | Yes | 267 | 7.0¢ | $20 | Losing−$5.32 per $100 · 30,060+ bets · updating |
| moonbagio0x9d59…3210 | Yes | 250 | 6.0¢ | $19 | — |
| PaveR0x2a63…2eb3 | Yes | 231 | 13.0¢ | $17 | — |
| 1982e0x625f…e2c0 | Yes | 200 | 6.0¢ | $15 | Positive+$5.39 per $100 · 101 bets |
| 0x82b8…1b3b | Yes | 200 | 9.0¢ | $15 | — |
| OP470x6ce7…d16e | Yes | 167 | 6.0¢ | $13 | — |
| Leo20160x9892…81db | Yes | 167 | 6.0¢ | $13 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.