June 30, 2027

Decided by

The market resolves "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.§1

Announcement suffices

An announcement that Israeli ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory is sufficient, even if some Lebanese territory remains under their…§3

Planned withdrawal

An announcement of a planned or future withdrawal does not suffice.§4

Shebaa Farms

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory and is not counted toward the market's resolution.§5

Continuing incursions

Resolution to "Yes" is possible even if ground incursions by Israeli forces continue.§3

Counted

All ground forces of Israel in Lebanon; the Shebaa Farms area is not counted toward resolution.§1

Source

Information from the Israeli government is the primary source; an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming withdrawal may also be used.§6

Closes

Jul 1, 2027 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.