Market · 2 of 4 outcomes
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 09:20 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| yhgsd0x6a97…163f | Yes | 2,000 | 29.9¢ | $570 | — |
| dfgtnjfgj0x04c5…7126 | No | 360 | 70.0¢ | $257 | — |
| dsvsdf0xb701…3730 | No | 360 | 70.0¢ | $257 | — |
| dsfbhdfhyu0x20ca…6036 | No | 350 | 70.0¢ | $250 | New4 settled bets |
| fghmhgf0x5014…d693 | No | 310 | 70.0¢ | $222 | — |
| sdrgdrhd0xcef0…d5b0 | No | 264 | 70.0¢ | $189 | — |
| derfgdgr0x0960…3cfe | No | 230 | 70.0¢ | $164 | — |
| theitaliangoats0x217a…86db | No | 82 | 97.2¢ | $59 | New15 settled bets |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | No | 50 | 75.0¢ | $36 | Break-even+$0.33 per $100 · 3,303 bets |
| chaosj880xca12…ea03 | Yes | 80 | 21.0¢ | $23 | Proven+$2.86 per $100 · 3,013 bets |
| AMAM130x52eb…67ac | No | 21 | 70.0¢ | $15 | Losing−$5.45 per $100 · 31,283 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 21 | 71.0¢ | $15 | Losing−$2.53 per $100 · 124,761+ bets · updating |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | No | 20 | 79.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$4.15 per $100 · 8,815 bets |
| tiromi0x0dfe…e95b | No | 20 | 75.0¢ | $14 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 20 | 71.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,471 bets |
| LeChatonFat0x9629…ee15 | Yes | 36 | 21.0¢ | $10 | — |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | No | 14 | 75.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$8.42 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0xf528…7e5b | No | 6 | 72.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x49F2060x49f2…d7b4 | No | 5 | 70.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$2.02 per $100 · 1,714 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 12 | 28.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$8.67 per $100 · 13,185 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 5 | 31.0¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| galhammerman0xdc05…9a76 | No | 0 | 79.0¢ | $0 | — |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 0 | 68.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,107 bets |
| ViscaElBarca0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | 0 | 30.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.