Market · 1 of 4 outcomes
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:16 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| zhaoyk0xcc03…d5c0 | No | 24,291 | 75.4¢ | $19.1K | New28 settled bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 10,682 | 72.9¢ | $8.39K | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| 0xcca9…4c9f | No | 6,139 | 70.4¢ | $4.82K | Break-even−$0.50 per $100 · 265 bets |
| yikaiz0xe258…d084 | No | 3,434 | 70.6¢ | $2.7K | New15 settled bets |
| givemeusername0xb78d…0d5b | No | 2,673 | 75.2¢ | $2.1K | — |
| Rolocex0x4e8b…1ea1 | No | 2,655 | 76.8¢ | $2.08K | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 661 bets |
| laureman0x1359…092e | No | 2,036 | 77.0¢ | $1.6K | Positive+$1.09 per $100 · 115 bets |
| Robbb0x9cdd…3e97 | No | 1,700 | 74.7¢ | $1.33K | Proven+$5.15 per $100 · 4,527 bets |
| flopped0x70a7…82ad | Yes | 5,629 | 25.0¢ | $1.21K | New40 settled bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 5,392 | 35.1¢ | $1.16K | Losing−$7.36 per $100 · 1,392 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 4,948 | 19.8¢ | $1.06K | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| Dima790xdd5a…4d23 | Yes | 4,841 | 26.4¢ | $1.04K | Positive+$1.95 per $100 · 443 bets |
| justme0030xcb89…a2e8 | No | 1,013 | 77.0¢ | $795 | Losing−$1.29 per $100 · 343 bets |
| EasyGoingA0xc390…2a1f | Yes | 3,211 | 24.6¢ | $690 | Proven+$13.15 per $100 · 320 bets |
| Bla-4850x70f8…7fb5 | Yes | 3,000 | 23.3¢ | $645 | Losing−$7.65 per $100 · 432 bets |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 2,935 | 26.2¢ | $631 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,062 bets |
| Nadmi0xe154…0b7f | Yes | 2,898 | 17.3¢ | $623 | Positive+$11.65 per $100 · 5,809 bets |
| SirHarryOakes0x5685…62e2 | No | 720 | 69.4¢ | $566 | Proven+$5.58 per $100 · 297 bets |
| angine0x09b5…8b88 | No | 668 | 77.6¢ | $524 | Proven+$9.07 per $100 · 100 bets |
| 0xbe0b…06ac | Yes | 2,368 | 23.0¢ | $509 | — |
| Pantheon10x606e…6b3a | No | 570 | 77.0¢ | $448 | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 477 bets |
| 0x4e84…ef69 | No | 515 | 67.2¢ | $404 | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 817 bets |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 500 | 0.0¢ | $393 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 1,490 | 17.0¢ | $320 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| goatboss0x56e7…cf24 | Yes | 1,350 | 28.5¢ | $290 | New35 settled bets |
| samsamaiai0x055b…5c5f | Yes | 1,297 | 23.0¢ | $279 | New16 settled bets |
| arii0x3a32…562e | No | 350 | 59.9¢ | $275 | Losing−$8.97 per $100 · 256 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Yes | 1,274 | 28.8¢ | $274 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 1,135 | 29.0¢ | $244 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| baybug0xfb66…5e13 | No | 300 | 74.0¢ | $236 | — |
| Morholt0x88c9…7e55 | Yes | 1,030 | 31.1¢ | $221 | — |
| PavtheGreat0x048a…9be4 | Yes | 1,000 | 25.0¢ | $215 | Losing−$1.76 per $100 · 325 bets |
| MaxEnt0xcf07…c770 | Yes | 1,000 | 25.0¢ | $215 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 690 bets |
| Rafael880x720b…37f6 | No | 261 | 78.0¢ | $205 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 208 bets |
| ynadinsky0x2ff6…7c7b | Yes | 870 | 23.0¢ | $187 | New51 settled bets |
| 0x263c…87a0 | No | 220 | 75.7¢ | $173 | Break-even+$0.63 per $100 · 141 bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | Yes | 700 | 0.0¢ | $150 | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| Hanuka0x64c7…14f3 | Yes | 634 | 31.5¢ | $136 | New33 settled bets |
| Dreamer3bcbcd6c0xd280…82b3 | Yes | 600 | 23.2¢ | $129 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 7,524 bets |
| TouchDownThana0xecfa…3c6f | Yes | 600 | 23.9¢ | $129 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 153 | 68.8¢ | $120 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| gazinnit0x252c…d5b4 | No | 143 | 70.0¢ | $112 | New21 settled bets |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | Yes | 471 | 16.0¢ | $101 | Positive+$6.62 per $100 · 6,737 bets |
| Mustafalafel0x8c0b…f0fb | Yes | 451 | 29.6¢ | $97 | Proven+$9.94 per $100 · 497 bets |
| sajadk0x64b5…2356 | Yes | 449 | 22.0¢ | $97 | New3 settled bets |
| Milama0x68ec…671e | Yes | 435 | 23.0¢ | $93 | New37 settled bets |
| 0x1ec7…12f7 | No | 111 | 72.0¢ | $87 | Losing−$4.05 per $100 · 456 bets |
| Relaccsed0xa6b7…d5f3 | Yes | 400 | 0.0¢ | $86 | — |
| Ramonstone0x374e…0a84 | Yes | 400 | 25.0¢ | $86 | New32 settled bets |
| Parsaa0xeaa7…922e | Yes | 385 | 26.0¢ | $83 | — |
| NoxCove0xae1b…ddbd | No | 100 | 76.0¢ | $79 | — |
| Wersado0xee9c…5476 | Yes | 323 | 31.0¢ | $69 | — |
| herkool0xf1fd…d5a8 | No | 86 | 78.0¢ | $68 | — |
| duckyduckybathtime0x076c…4cb9 | Yes | 313 | 31.0¢ | $67 | New29 settled bets |
| AncientWind0xa7a5…c417 | Yes | 313 | 32.0¢ | $67 | — |
| nicoeg0xe47b…a899 | No | 85 | 59.0¢ | $67 | — |
| rocky420170xf16d…b7f9 | Yes | 291 | 40.1¢ | $63 | — |
| 0x0314…2f6d | Yes | 287 | 26.0¢ | $62 | Proven+$2.06 per $100 · 378 bets |
| piyasayapici0x69cd…d48d | Yes | 283 | 22.0¢ | $61 | Losing−$7.20 per $100 · 108 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 76 | 72.5¢ | $59 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Maximizer0xc958…1356 | Yes | 270 | 37.0¢ | $58 | — |
| Schnitzelwiener0x755c…ba9f | Yes | 254 | 28.7¢ | $55 | Break-even−$0.60 per $100 · 261 bets |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 250 | 25.6¢ | $54 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| Debosnys0x7e30…1e50 | Yes | 222 | 30.0¢ | $48 | Break-even+$0.18 per $100 · 3,054 bets |
| DocIce0xb3d7…472c | Yes | 221 | 34.0¢ | $47 | — |
| 0x2fd5…afcf | Yes | 217 | 23.0¢ | $47 | New4 settled bets |
| 0xa3a1…c2bc | Yes | 217 | 23.0¢ | $47 | — |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | Yes | 200 | 22.0¢ | $43 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| RobertCZ0xa0bb…2a16 | Yes | 200 | 26.0¢ | $43 | — |
| WhiteRiceHoldCo0xeb03…5d15 | Yes | 200 | 32.5¢ | $43 | — |
| ZeroWallet0x6326…c522 | Yes | 200 | 25.2¢ | $43 | Proven+$4.30 per $100 · 908 bets |
| yalmighty10x00f8…153b | Yes | 199 | 23.0¢ | $43 | Losing−$12.54 per $100 · 11,088 bets |
| 0x3b08…def3 | Yes | 192 | 26.0¢ | $41 | New8 settled bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 180 | 36.7¢ | $39 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| PConsensus0x92a3…cf0a | No | 40 | 75.0¢ | $31 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | No | 32 | 74.3¢ | $25 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| 0x6d6e…fdb4 | No | 31 | 80.0¢ | $25 | New53 settled bets |
| 0x9e3e…f882 | No | 26 | 71.3¢ | $21 | Losing−$9.60 per $100 · 56,831+ bets · updating |
| tehkai0xa429…368a | No | 12 | 74.0¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.75 per $100 · 483 bets |
| Uncllelloyd0x5cc9…2c35 | No | 10 | 75.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$9.18 per $100 · 119 bets |
| rasvp0x6a60…ea7d | No | 9 | 75.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$9.12 per $100 · 551 bets |
| 0xa383…8a0c | No | 9 | 0.0¢ | $7 | — |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | No | 9 | 71.3¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| 25jbdgwo0x9f91…9828 | No | 7 | 71.0¢ | $5 | — |
| YDJ850x0ded…8623 | No | 7 | 74.0¢ | $5 | New49 settled bets |
| olivas0x37a0…ec34 | No | 7 | 75.8¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.30 per $100 · 778 bets |
| smye1000xfb8e…3dc3 | No | 7 | 76.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$3.44 per $100 · 5,616 bets |
| new-account-test2220xfe91…4cd3 | No | 5 | 75.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x4fbc…a244 | No | 3 | 69.3¢ | $2 | Losing−$13.26 per $100 · 165 bets |
| 0xe22e…708f | No | 3 | 69.7¢ | $2 | — |
| Wartlock0xe856…3789 | No | 3 | 73.0¢ | $2 | — |
| ilovecarrots0x03e1…e180 | No | 3 | 60.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.64 per $100 · 2,068 bets |
| m3tuna0x4f9e…9aa0 | No | 2 | 0.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$43.17 per $100 · 959 bets |
| temawm0xa7ec…e964 | No | 2 | 70.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xc925…6d24 | No | 2 | 66.0¢ | $1 | — |
| xcghvn0xf920…ecf0 | No | 2 | 65.0¢ | $1 | — |
| chenliwang0x6e8a…8343 | No | 2 | 72.0¢ | $1 | — |
| MaxGold19170x3606…caca | No | 1 | 75.0¢ | $1 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.